Senior Fellow
Education: PhD, University of Wisconsin, Madison (1978); BA, Dartmouth College (1967)
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Mead Over is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Development, where he works on issues related to the economics of efficient, effective and cost-effective health interventions in developing countries. Much of his work since 1987, first at the World Bank and now at the CGD, is on the economics of the AIDS epidemic. After work on the economic impact of the AIDS epidemic and on cost-effective interventions, he co-authored the Bank’s first comprehensive treatment of the economics of AIDS in the book, Confronting AIDS: Public Priorities for a Global Epidemic (1997,1999). His most recent book is entitled The Economics of Effective AIDS Treatment: Evaluating Policy Options for Thailand (2006). Other papers examine the economics of preventing and of treating malaria. In addition to ongoing work on the determinants of adherence to AIDS treatment in poor countries, he is working on optimal pricing of health care services at the periphery, on the measurement and explanation of the efficiency of health service delivery in poor countries and on optimal interventions to control a global influenza pandemic, should one occur.
After leaving college, Mead served in the US Peace Corps’ first program in Burkina Faso, where he worked with villagers in the construction of 25 water wells. While earning his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Wisconsin at Madison, he spent one year as a Foreign Scholar in the Economics Department of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA). After leaving Madison, he taught health economics, development economics, applied microeconomics and econometrics as an Assistant Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics and the Center for Development at Williams College in Williamstown, Massachusetts from 1975 through 1981 and as an Associate Professor of Economics at Boston University from 1981 through 1985, where he also held the position of Associate Professor of Public Health.
Recruited to the World Bank as a Health Economist in 1986, Mead Over advanced to the position of Lead Health Economist in the Development Research Group, before leaving the World Bank to join the Center for Global Development in 2006. Each spring since 2005, he has taught a module on “Modeling the Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions against Infectious Diseases” as part of the master’s degree program in health economics for developing countries at the Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International (CERDI) at the University of the Auvergne, Clermont-Ferrand, France.
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Selected Works
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This dataset compiles selected global variables on AIDS and its treatment and prevention. The data are in the format developed by the Stata statistical software corporation and are intended for use with Over and McCarthy's AIDSCost package for the purpose of projecting the future budgetary cost of scaling up AIDS treatment.
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CGD senior fellow Mead Over and Owen McCarthy offer a users' manual and Stata software to help students and instructors of public health, development economics, or health economics to project the future budgetary cost of AIDS treatment in poor countries and to explore the many factors affecting the calculation.
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Senior fellow Mead Over estimates the effect of AIDS on poverty in South Asia and analyzes public policy options to help the region’s predominantly private health care systems meet the challenge of treating AIDS. He finds that South Asian governments should play a larger role in AIDS treatment than in other aspects of health care, in the interest of both efficiency and equity.
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Director of the Center for Public Leadership at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, editor-at-large at U.S. News & World Report, and a senior political analyst for CNN, David Gergen joined CGD president Nancy Birdsall, and CGD senior fellows who authored essays in our recent book, The White House and the World: A Global Development Agenda for the Next U.S. President, for a lively discussion of the prospects for improved U.S. development policy under President Barack Obama.
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U.S. spending on global AIDS is widely seen as a significant foreign policy and humanitarian success, but this success contains the seeds of a future crisis. Treatment costs are set to escalate dramatically and new HIV infections continue to outpace the number of people receiving treatment. Three bad options thus loom ahead for U.S. foreign policy: indefinitely increase foreign assistance spending on an open-ended commitment, eliminate half of other foreign aid programs, or withdraw the medicine that millions of people depend upon to stay alive. CGD senior fellow Mead Over provides another option: implementing a sustainable policy that concentrates on prevention in order to drastically cut new infections while sustaining the reduction in AIDS-related deaths.
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The White House and the World: A Global Development Agenda for the Next U.S. President shows how modest changes in U.S. policies could greatly improve the lives of poor people in developing countries, thus fostering greater stability, security, and prosperity globally and at home. Center for Global Development experts offer fresh perspectives and practical advice on trade policy, migration, foreign aid, climate change and more. In an introductory essay, CGD President Nancy Birdsall explains why and how the next U.S. president must lead in the creation of a better, safer world.
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U.S. global AIDS spending is helping to prolong the lives of more than a million people, yet this success contains the seeds of a future crisis. Escalating treatment costs coupled with neglected prevention measures mean that AIDS spending is growing so rapidly that it threatens to squeeze out U.S. spending on other global health needs, even to the point of consuming half of the entire U.S. foreign assistance budget by 2016. Mead Over argues that AIDS treatment spending could quickly become a global entitlement since withdrawing funding for life-saving drugs would mean death for the beneficiaries. He offers suggestions for avoiding a ballooning AIDS treatment entitlement, including greatly stepped-up prevention efforts.
Learn More
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The White House and the World: A Global Development Agenda for the Next U.S. President shows how modest changes in U.S. policies could greatly improve the lives of poor people in developing countries, thus fostering greater stability, security, and prosperity globally and at home. Center for Global Development experts offer fresh perspectives and practical advice on trade policy, migration, foreign aid, climate change and more. In an introductory essay, CGD President Nancy Birdsall explains why and how the next U.S. president must lead in the creation of a better, safer world.
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Director of the Center for Public Leadership at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, editor-at-large at U.S. News & World Report, and a senior political analyst for CNN, David Gergen joined CGD president Nancy Birdsall, and CGD senior fellows who authored essays in our recent book, The White House and the World: A Global Development Agenda for the Next U.S. President, for a lively discussion of the prospects for improved U.S. development policy under President Barack Obama.
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U.S. global AIDS spending is helping to prolong the lives of more than a million people, yet this success contains the seeds of a future crisis. Escalating treatment costs coupled with neglected prevention measures mean that AIDS spending is growing so rapidly that it threatens to squeeze out U.S. spending on other global health needs, even to the point of consuming half of the entire U.S. foreign assistance budget by 2016. Mead Over argues that AIDS treatment spending could quickly become a global entitlement since withdrawing funding for life-saving drugs would mean death for the beneficiaries. He offers suggestions for avoiding a ballooning AIDS treatment entitlement, including greatly stepped-up prevention efforts.
Learn More
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Senior fellow Mead Over estimates the effect of AIDS on poverty in South Asia and analyzes public policy options to help the region’s predominantly private health care systems meet the challenge of treating AIDS. He finds that South Asian governments should play a larger role in AIDS treatment than in other aspects of health care, in the interest of both efficiency and equity.
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CGD senior fellow Mead Over and Owen McCarthy offer a users' manual and Stata software to help students and instructors of public health, development economics, or health economics to project the future budgetary cost of AIDS treatment in poor countries and to explore the many factors affecting the calculation.
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This dataset compiles selected global variables on AIDS and its treatment and prevention. The data are in the format developed by the Stata statistical software corporation and are intended for use with Over and McCarthy's AIDSCost package for the purpose of projecting the future budgetary cost of scaling up AIDS treatment.
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U.S. spending on global AIDS is widely seen as a significant foreign policy and humanitarian success, but this success contains the seeds of a future crisis. Treatment costs are set to escalate dramatically and new HIV infections continue to outpace the number of people receiving treatment. Three bad options thus loom ahead for U.S. foreign policy: indefinitely increase foreign assistance spending on an open-ended commitment, eliminate half of other foreign aid programs, or withdraw the medicine that millions of people depend upon to stay alive. CGD senior fellow Mead Over provides another option: implementing a sustainable policy that concentrates on prevention in order to drastically cut new infections while sustaining the reduction in AIDS-related deaths.
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Cross-Country Data on AIDS Treatment and HIV Prevalence in 2006-07
- Jun 5, 2009
This dataset compiles selected global variables on AIDS and its treatment and prevention. The data are in the format developed by the Stata statistical software corporation and are intended for use with Over and McCarthy's AIDSCost package for the purpose of projecting the future budgetary cost of scaling up AIDS treatment.
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Opportunities for Presidential Leadership on AIDS: From an "Emergency Plan" to a Sustainable Policy (White House and the World Policy Brief)
- Sep 5, 2008
U.S. spending on global AIDS is widely seen as a significant foreign policy and humanitarian success, but this success contains the seeds of a future crisis. Treatment costs are set to escalate dramatically and new HIV infections continue to outpace the number of people receiving treatment. Three bad options thus loom ahead for U.S. foreign policy: indefinitely increase foreign assistance spending on an open-ended commitment, eliminate half of other foreign aid programs, or withdraw the medicine that millions of people depend upon to stay alive. CGD senior fellow Mead Over provides another option: implementing a sustainable policy that concentrates on prevention in order to drastically cut new infections while sustaining the reduction in AIDS-related deaths.
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The White House and the World: A Global Development Agenda for the Next U.S. President
- Aug 22, 2008
The White House and the World: A Global Development Agenda for the Next U.S. President shows how modest changes in U.S. policies could greatly improve the lives of poor people in developing countries, thus fostering greater stability, security, and prosperity globally and at home. Center for Global Development experts offer fresh perspectives and practical advice on trade policy, migration, foreign aid, climate change and more. In an introductory essay, CGD President Nancy Birdsall explains why and how the next U.S. president must lead in the creation of a better, safer world.
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Prevention Failure: The Ballooning Entitlement Burden of U.S. Global AIDS Treatment Spending and What to Do About It - Working Paper 144
- May 5, 2008
U.S. global AIDS spending is helping to prolong the lives of more than a million people, yet this success contains the seeds of a future crisis. Escalating treatment costs coupled with neglected prevention measures mean that AIDS spending is growing so rapidly that it threatens to squeeze out U.S. spending on other global health needs, even to the point of consuming half of the entire U.S. foreign assistance budget by 2016. Mead Over argues that AIDS treatment spending could quickly become a global entitlement since withdrawing funding for life-saving drugs would mean death for the beneficiaries. He offers suggestions for avoiding a ballooning AIDS treatment entitlement, including greatly stepped-up prevention efforts.
Learn More
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Adapting Aid Criteria to Development Goals
- Apr 24, 2009
Join us for a discussion with Patrick Guillaumont, President of Fondation pour les études et recherches sur le développement international (Foundation for Studies and Research for International Development), Professor at Université d'Auvergne (CERDI), and Member of the UN Committee for Development Policy. He will be presenting his working paper "Adapting Aid Criteria to Development Goals," which argues on both equity and efficiency grounds for the application of selectivity criteria that are more sensitive to a countries "structural vulnerability." Professor Guillaumont's approach leads to allocating a greater share of aid not only to the "least developed" countries, by this measure, but also to small and vulnerable countries or fragile states which otherwise do not quite fit the definition of least developed.
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Why HIV/AIDS is Still Exceptional
- Apr 20, 2009
Please join us for a discussion with Dr. Alan Whiteside, where he will examine the origins of AIDS exceptionalism and how it has helped and hindered our response to the epidemic. Whiteside will ask if exceptionalism is still a useful concept in light of our current knowledge about the epidemic, the global financial crisis and changes in health governance. Nandini Oomman and Mead Over from the Center for Global Development will serve as discussants for what promises to be a fascinating conversation.
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AIDS - Is It a Risk to Economic Development in Regions with Low HIV Prevalence?
- Apr 20, 2009
HIV and AIDS in South Asia: An Economic
Development Risk, a new book edited by Markus
Haacker and Mariam Claeson, offers an original
perspective on HIV and AIDS as a development issue
in a region with a low HIV prevalence and
concentrated epidemics. Although the impact of HIV
and AIDS on economic growth appears to be very
small, three major risks to development are associated
with HIV and AIDS in South Asia: the risk of escalating
concentrated epidemics, the economic welfare costs,
and the fiscal costs of scaling up treatment.
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Reducing Child Mortality in Low Income Countries: The Power of Knowledgeable Parents
- May 27, 2008
Why do ten million children continue to die each year from preventable causes? There is good clinical evidence, and some examples, illustrating that child deaths could be rapidly reduced through inexpensive measures readily available today. However, despite sometimes good intentions, neither foreign assistance nor local governments have achieved enough. A bias towards public provision of clinical services, the use of ineffective interventions, and the failure to exploit parents' natural love for their child, may explain lack of success. Effective Intervention, in partnership with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, is currently implementing two large aid projects in west Africa and India, designed as randomized controlled trials, that aim to rapidly reduce child deaths and test whether modest foreign assistance can truly save large numbers of lives.
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HIV/AIDS Programs and the Private Health Sector: What’s happening? And why does it matter?
- Jan 28, 2008
Integrating private providers into national disease programs is increasingly seen as critical to extending access-to-care, particularly to poor households which paradoxically are often among those most likely to pay for private services. A number of global programs, notably TB, malaria, and reproductive health, have made considerable progress in engaging private providers in both prevention and treatment activities. Private TB care is supported through public-private mix (PPM-DOTS) initiatives in all high-burden countries. Subsidized private distribution of malaria nets and medicines, of family planning commodities and services, and of clean water and vitamins are all accepted as effective and desirable by both donors and low-income governments and are common around the world. This type of engagement is less common in donor-supported HIV/AIDS programs.
This talk will focus on the possible reasons for why this is so, and why a few countries are exceptions and continue support for private ART as a component of their national AIDS programs. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing for sustainability of programs, for access to care, and for social justice and cost-effectiveness will be discussed.
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Free Distribution vs. Cost-Sharing: Evidence from a Malaria-Prevention Field Experiment in Kenya
- Jan 9, 2008
Abstract: It is widely believed that cost-sharing—charging a subsidized, positive price—for a health product is necessary to avoid wasting resources on those who will not use or do not need the product. We explore this argument in the context of a field experiment in Kenya, in which we randomized the price at which pregnant women could buy long lasting anti-malarial insecticide treated nets (ITNs) at prenatal clinics. We find no evidence that cost-sharing reduces wastage on those that will not use the product: women who received free ITNs are not less likely to use them than those who paid subsidized positive prices. We also find no evidence that cost-sharing induces selection of women who need the net more: those who pay higher prices appear no sicker than the prenatal clients in the control group in terms of measured anemia (an important indicator of malaria). Cost-sharing does, however, considerably dampen demand. We find that uptake drops by 75 percent when the price of ITNs increases from zero to $0.75, the price at which ITNs are currently sold to pregnant women in Kenya. We combine our estimates in a cost-effectiveness analysis of ITN prices on infant mortality that incorporates both private and social returns to ITN usage. Overall, given the large positive externality associated with widespread usage of insecticide-treated nets, our results suggest that free distribution is both more effective and more cost-effective than cost-sharing.
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Can Public-Private Partnerships Help Stop AIDS in Africa? Lessons from Botswana
- Jun 6, 2007
An innovative model for fighting HIV/AIDS in Africa is being piloted in Botswana through a public-private partnership involving the Government of Botswana, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Merck & Co., Inc. The partnership is intended to help Botswana achieve an "AIDS-Free Generation by 2016" by expanding prevention, supporting treatment, increasing counseling and testing, and empowering communities. How does this model differ from other approaches to fighting HIV/AIDS? Has it succeeded? Can lessons from Botswana be used to develop similar public-private partnerships elsewhere in Africa? How can donors support such partnerships? Please join us for a lively discussion of these and other important issues relevant to Botswana’s national AIDS program.
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Non-CGD Publications
- HIV prevention costs and program scale: data from the PANCEA project in five low and middle-income countries BMC Health Services Research, 2007, 7 (1), 108.
- Over, Mead et al., "The economics of effective AIDS treatment in Thailand," AIDS 21 Suppl 4 (July): S105-S116 (2007). Based on the previously pulished book: The Economics of Effective AIDS Treatment Evaluating Policy Options for Thailand World Bank, Washington, DC (2006).
- Antiretroviral therapy and HIV prevention in India: modeling costs and consequences of policy options, Over, M. et al., Sex Transm.Dis. 33 (10 Suppl): S145-S152 (2006).
- Sexually Transmitted Infections by Sevgi Aral and Mead Over, with Lisa Manhart and King Holmes. (2006) Chapter 17 in D. Jamison et al (eds.) Disease Control Priorities.
- Will a global subsidy of artemisinin-based combination treatment (ACT) for malaria delay the emergence of resistance and save lives? Health Affairs, 25, no. 2 (2006): 325-336. (version with demand curves)
- Impregnated Nets or DDT Residual Spraying? Field Effectiveness of Malaria Prevention Techniques in the Solomon Islands, 1993-99, with Patricia Graves, Bernard Bakote’e, Raman Velayudhan, Peter Waleaulo, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, August, 2004, Vol. 71, No. 2 Supplement.
- HIV/AIDS Treatment and Prevention in India Modeling the Costs and Consequences (2004) with Peter Heywood, Julian Gold, Indrani Gupta, Subhash Hira, Elliot Marseille. Human Development Network Health, Nutrition, and Population Series. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
- Impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the health sectors of developing countries. (2004). In The macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS. Edited by Markus Haacker. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
- "Evaluating the Impact of Organizational Reforms in Hospitals," with Naoko Watanabe, Chapter 3 in A. Preker and A.Harding (eds.) Innovations in health service delivery: The corporatization of public hospitals. World Bank, March 2003
- Sources of Financial Assistance for Households Suffering and Adult Death in Kagera, Tanzania with M.Lundberg and P.Mujinjia. The South African Journal of Economics, 2000, 68 (5) and Working Paper No. 2508, Development Research Group, Infrastructure and Environment, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
- The Public Interest in a Private Disease: The Government’s role in STD Control, chapter 1 of K.K. Holmes, et al (eds.), Sexually Transmitted Diseases, 3d ed., New York: McGraw-Hill.
- Confronting AIDS: Public Priorities in a Global Epidemic. with Martha Ainsworth, World Bank, 1997, 1999. Summary in English, French, Spanish.
- Confronting AIDS: Evidence from the developing World, (1998) with Martha Ainsworth and Lieve Fransen (eds.) European Union.
- HIV Infection and Sexually Transmitted Diseases with Peter Piot. (1993) In D.T Jamison and others, eds. Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries. New York: Oxford University Press, pp-455-527.
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