Senior Fellow
Education: M.Phil. and D.Phil., University of Oxford, U.K.; MBA, Indian Institute of Management at Ahmedabad, India; BS, St. Stephens College, Delhi
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Arvind Subramanian, an Indian national, is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development with a joint appointment at the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics and is also a senior research professor at Johns Hopkins University. Prior to his joint appointment with CGD and PIIE, he was assistant director in the research department of the International Monetary Fund. He obtained his undergraduate degree from St. Stephens College, Delhi, his MBA from the Indian Institute of Management at Ahmedabad, India, and his M.Phil. and D.Phil. from the University of Oxford, UK.
Previously, he worked at the GATT (1988–1992) during the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations and taught at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government (1999–2000). In his career at the Fund, he worked on trade, development, Africa, India, and the Middle East.
He has written on growth, trade, development, institutions, aid, oil, India, Africa, the WTO, and intellectual property. He has published widely in academic and other journals, including the American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Economic Growth, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Foreign Affairs, World Economy, and Economic and Political Weekly.
He has also been published and/or cited extensively, including in the Economist, Financial Times, Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, and the New York Review of Books. He was interviewed on PBS’s Charlie Rose show. He is a columnist for India’s leading financial daily, Business Standard.
His book, India’s Turn: Understanding the Economic Transformation was published in 2008 by Oxford University Press. He is coeditor of Efficiency, Equity, and Legitimacy: The Multilateral Trading System at the Millennium with Roger Porter and Pierre Sauvé (Brookings/Harvard University Press, 2002).
He is currently ranked among the top 4 percent of the world’s academic economists in terms of research and publications, according to the widely used REPEC rankings.
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Selected Works
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Decades of research have been unable to conclusively show either a positive or negative effect of aid on economic growth in poor countries. CGD senior fellow Arvind Subramanian and Raghuram G. Rajan use a new technique in their latest working paper that suggests aid slows the manufacturing sector by appreciating the exchange rate and making the production of manufacturing goods less profitable. And if aid slows the manufacturing sector, the implications for overall growth could be adverse.
Read the Working Paper
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In this working paper, the authors shed light on systemic problems of variability and valuation in the Penn World Table GDP estimates that distort cross-country comparisons of the data. They propose creating a new chained series that values all data at PPP prices and makes better use of disaggregated data for different benchmark years to overcome the limitations.
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The authors suggest a new approach assessing carbon taxes on imports to address the concerns from high-income countries about the effect of taxes on competition without damaging trade from developing countries.
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In this paper Arvind Subramanian and co-authors investigate the differential effects of cooperatitve policy action on climate change and find that one size doesn't fit all. Policy instruments should distinguish between low- and high-carbon countries to avoid serious trade consequences.
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On Friday, November 6, 2009, the Center for Global Development hosted the Washington launch and discussion of this important report, with President Zedillo presenting the key recommendations. A panel discussion, moderated by CGD vice president Lawrence MacDonald, followed with CGD president Nancy Birdsall, Foreign Policy editor-in-chief Moisés Naím, and Arvind Subramanian, joint senior fellow with CGD and Peterson Institute.
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The paper proposes a new narrative on climate equity that emphasize basic energy needs and the equality of access to energy opportunities rather than emissions. It advocates abandoning the setting of emissions targets and instead developing a framework where all countries contribute to maximizing technology creation and diffusion.
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What happens when capital and sophisticated goods flow uphill, from poorer to richer countries? With a new dataset of foreign direct investment and a measure of the sophistication of exports, CGD senior fellow Arvind Subramanian and his co-author Aaditya Mattoo find that developing countries sending goods and services uphill experience economic growth and other development benefits.
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The World Trade Organization’s collapsed Doha Round focused on issues of limited significance while the burning issues of the day were not even on the agenda. In this new working paper, CGD senior fellow Arvind Subramanian and co-author Aaditya Mattoo argue for a wider agenda for multilateral cooperation that includes such issues as food, energy, economic security, and the prevention and resolution of future financial crises.
LEARN MORE
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Statement Before The U.S. House Of Representatives Committee On Financial Services: Hearing on Contributing Factors and International Responses to the Global Food Crisis.
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Two aspects of global imbalances -- undervalued exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds -- require a multilateral response. For reasons of inadequate leverage and eroding legitimacy, the International Monetary Fund has not been effective in dealing with undervalued exchange rates. In this working paper, CGD senior fellow Arvind Subramanian and his co-author propose new rules in the World Trade Organization to discipline cases of significant undervaluation that are clearly attributable to government action. Placing exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds on the trade negotiating agenda may help revive the Doha Round by rekindling the interest of a wide variety of groups, many of whom are currently disengaged from the round.
Learn More
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Decades of research have been unable to conclusively show either a positive or negative effect of aid on economic growth in poor countries. CGD senior fellow Arvind Subramanian and Raghuram G. Rajan use a new technique in their latest working paper that suggests aid slows the manufacturing sector by appreciating the exchange rate and making the production of manufacturing goods less profitable. And if aid slows the manufacturing sector, the implications for overall growth could be adverse.
Read the Working Paper
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In this working paper, the authors shed light on systemic problems of variability and valuation in the Penn World Table GDP estimates that distort cross-country comparisons of the data. They propose creating a new chained series that values all data at PPP prices and makes better use of disaggregated data for different benchmark years to overcome the limitations.
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The authors suggest a new approach assessing carbon taxes on imports to address the concerns from high-income countries about the effect of taxes on competition without damaging trade from developing countries.
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The paper proposes a new narrative on climate equity that emphasize basic energy needs and the equality of access to energy opportunities rather than emissions. It advocates abandoning the setting of emissions targets and instead developing a framework where all countries contribute to maximizing technology creation and diffusion.
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In this CGD Essay, Birdsall and Subramianian argue that the World Bank faces twin crises of relevance and legitimacy in a rapidly changing world. The solution, they argue, is for the bank to become a more active catalyst for generating global public goods and knowledge and a more reluctant lender to governments. The World Bank should move, in effect, from being a bank to being a global development cooperative. The essay suggests specific, practical steps for such reforms.
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In this paper Arvind Subramanian and co-authors investigate the differential effects of cooperatitve policy action on climate change and find that one size doesn't fit all. Policy instruments should distinguish between low- and high-carbon countries to avoid serious trade consequences.
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Two aspects of global imbalances -- undervalued exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds -- require a multilateral response. For reasons of inadequate leverage and eroding legitimacy, the International Monetary Fund has not been effective in dealing with undervalued exchange rates. In this working paper, CGD senior fellow Arvind Subramanian and his co-author propose new rules in the World Trade Organization to discipline cases of significant undervaluation that are clearly attributable to government action. Placing exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds on the trade negotiating agenda may help revive the Doha Round by rekindling the interest of a wide variety of groups, many of whom are currently disengaged from the round.
Learn More
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What happens when capital and sophisticated goods flow uphill, from poorer to richer countries? With a new dataset of foreign direct investment and a measure of the sophistication of exports, CGD senior fellow Arvind Subramanian and his co-author Aaditya Mattoo find that developing countries sending goods and services uphill experience economic growth and other development benefits.
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The World Trade Organization’s collapsed Doha Round focused on issues of limited significance while the burning issues of the day were not even on the agenda. In this new working paper, CGD senior fellow Arvind Subramanian and co-author Aaditya Mattoo argue for a wider agenda for multilateral cooperation that includes such issues as food, energy, economic security, and the prevention and resolution of future financial crises.
LEARN MORE
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Statement Before The U.S. House Of Representatives Committee On Financial Services: Hearing on Contributing Factors and International Responses to the Global Food Crisis.
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Aid, Dutch Disease, and Manufacturing Growth - Working Paper 196
- Dec 18, 2009
Decades of research have been unable to conclusively show either a positive or negative effect of aid on economic growth in poor countries. CGD senior fellow Arvind Subramanian and Raghuram G. Rajan use a new technique in their latest working paper that suggests aid slows the manufacturing sector by appreciating the exchange rate and making the production of manufacturing goods less profitable. And if aid slows the manufacturing sector, the implications for overall growth could be adverse.
Read the Working Paper
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Multilateralism Beyond Doha - Working Paper 153
- Oct 9, 2008
The World Trade Organization’s collapsed Doha Round focused on issues of limited significance while the burning issues of the day were not even on the agenda. In this new working paper, CGD senior fellow Arvind Subramanian and co-author Aaditya Mattoo argue for a wider agenda for multilateral cooperation that includes such issues as food, energy, economic security, and the prevention and resolution of future financial crises.
LEARN MORE
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Currency Undervaluation and Sovereign Wealth Funds: A New Role for the World Trade Organization - Working Paper 142
- Feb 28, 2008
Two aspects of global imbalances -- undervalued exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds -- require a multilateral response. For reasons of inadequate leverage and eroding legitimacy, the International Monetary Fund has not been effective in dealing with undervalued exchange rates. In this working paper, CGD senior fellow Arvind Subramanian and his co-author propose new rules in the World Trade Organization to discipline cases of significant undervaluation that are clearly attributable to government action. Placing exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds on the trade negotiating agenda may help revive the Doha Round by rekindling the interest of a wide variety of groups, many of whom are currently disengaged from the round.
Learn More
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From World Bank to World Development Cooperative
- Oct 15, 2007
In this CGD Essay, Birdsall and Subramianian argue that the World Bank faces twin crises of relevance and legitimacy in a rapidly changing world. The solution, they argue, is for the bank to become a more active catalyst for generating global public goods and knowledge and a more reluctant lender to governments. The World Bank should move, in effect, from being a bank to being a global development cooperative. The essay suggests specific, practical steps for such reforms.
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How Much Can We Trust Standard International Measures of Income and Growth?
- Dec 1, 2009
Abstract:(Joint work with Simon Johnson, William Larson, and Chris Papageorgiou.) This paper explores important problems in the most common database used by economists to make international comparisons of income and growth--the Penn World Table (PWT) GDP estimates. We focus on two problems: variability and valuation. We show that these estimates vary substantially across different versions of the PWT despite being derived from similar underlying data and using similar methodologies; that this variability is systematic; and that it is intrinsic to the methodology deployed by the PWT to estimate growth rates. Moreover, this variability matters for the cross-country growth literature. While growth studies that use low frequency data remain robust to data revisions, studies that use annual data are less robust. The raison d’être of the PWT is to adjust national estimates of GDP by valuing output at common international (purchasing power parity [PPP]) prices so that the resulting PPP-adjusted estimates of GDP are comparable across countries. But we find, surprisingly, that the PWT methodology leads to GDP estimates that are not valued at PPP prices. We propose an approach to address these problems of variability and valuation.
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Zedillo Commission Report on World Bank Governance
- Nov 6, 2009
The World Bank recently released the long-awaited report of a high-level commission on World Bank governance headed by former Mexican president Ernesto Zedillo. The report, requested by World Bank president Robert Zoellick, offers a comprehensive blueprint for modernizing the bank. The Center for Global Development is hosting a Washington launch and discussion of this important report, with President Zedillo presenting the key recommendations. A panel discussion, moderated by CGD vice president Lawrence MacDonald, will follow with CGD president Nancy Birdsall, Foreign Policy editor-in-chief Moisés Naím, and Arvind Subramanian, joint senior fellow with CGD and Peterson Institute.
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Beyond Lending: How Multilateral Banks Can Help Developing Countries Manage Volatility
- May 21, 2009
Developing countries are susceptible to many kinds of risks—from liquidity shocks and terms of trade volatility to natural disasters. The economic crisis is a reminder that dealing with external risks is a formidable challenge to economic development. The crisis, largely a product of the rich world, is taking a heavy toll on developing nations, which are looking again to multilateral institutions for support. As the demand for traditional loans grows once again, Guillermo Perry’s new book Beyond Lending is a timely reminder that multilateral development banks should move beyond lending to provide innovative risk-management tools for developing countries to manage volatility in pursuit of sustained growth. Join us for the book launch event of Beyond Lending, with discussants Nancy Lee, Santiago Levy, and Arvind Subramanian adding their views to this debate.
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New Ideas in Development after the Financial Crisis
- Apr 22, 2009
The New Ideas in Development After the Financial Crisis Conference, sponsored by CGD and the Bernard L. Schwartz Forum on Constructive Capitalism, will examine the implications of the global financial crisis on existing development strategies. Panels of distinguished academics and policy practitioners will explore how different regions of the developing world are interpreting this crisis and how they are likely to respond on a national and international level.
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Congressional Hearing: Contributing Factors and International Responses to the Global Food Crisis
- May 14, 2008
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank today announced the committee will hold a hearing entitled "Contributing Factors and International Responses to the Global Food Crisis" to examine the underlying causes of the current intense pressures on the world’s food system and focus on the immediate and urgent short-term humanitarian challenges to the crisis. A panel of leading world scholars, experts, and advocates representing a wide range of experience both within the U.S. government and at international organizations such as the UN, the FAO, the World Bank and the IMF will testify on the international food crisis on.
The hearing will also focus on what kinds of trade policies and other interventions by governments, aid agencies, and international institutions -- including the World Bank, the IMF, and International Fund for Agricultural Development -- would be necessary and most effective in establishing a sustainable and secure food system that meets the basic food needs of all people.
Non-CGD Publications
Development
- “Does Aid Affect Governance?” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, (with Raghuram Rajan), May 2007.
- “Africa’s Growth Prospects: Benchmarking the Constraints,” NBER Working Paper, 13120 (with Simon Johnson and Jonathan Ostry).
- “Foreign Capital and Economic Development,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, March 2007, (with Eswar Prasad and Raghuram Rajan).
- “How to Help Poor Countries,” Foreign Affairs, (with Nancy Birdsall and Dani Rodrik), 2005.
- “Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Section Evidence Really Show?” National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, No. 11513, (with Raghuram Rajan), 2005; forthcoming Review of Economics and Statistics.
- “What Undermines Aid’s Impact on Growth,” NBER Working Paper, No. 11657, (with Raghuram Rajan), 2005.
- “Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development,” Journal of Economic Growth, (with Dani Rodrik and Francesco Trebbi), 2004.
- “Saving Iraq from its Oil,” Foreign Affairs, (with Nancy Birdsall), 2004.
- “What Determines Long-Run Macroeconomic Stability? Democratic Institutions,” IMF Working Staff Papers, (with Shanker Satyanath), 2007.
- “The Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria,” NBER Working Paper, with Xavier Sala-i-Martin), 2003.
- “The Primacy of Institutions and What it does or does not Mean,” Finance and Development, (with Dani Rodrik), June 2003.
- “Who can Explain the Mauritian Miracle: Meade, Romer, Sachs or Rodrik,” In Search of Prosperity, edited by Dani Rodrik, Princeton University Press, (with Devesh Roy), 2002.
India: Development
- “Policies, Enforcement, and Customs Evasion: Evidence from India,” IMF Working Paper, (with Prachi Mishra and Petia Topalova), forthcoming.
- “The Intriguing Relationship between Growth and Institutions in India,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, forthcoming.
- “India’s Pattern of Development: What Happened, What Follows,” Journal of Monetary Economics, (with K. Kochhar, U. Kumar, R. Rajan, and I. Tokatlidis), 2006.
- “From ‘Hindu Growth’ to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition,” IMF Staff Papers, (with Dani Rodrik), 2004.
- “Why India can grow at 7 Percent a year or More?” Economic and Political Weekly, (with Dani Rodrik), 2004.
Trade and Intellectual Property
- “The WTO promotes trade strongly, but unevenly,” Journal of International Economics, (with Shang-Jin Wei), 2007.
- “Why Prospects for Doha Trade Talks are not Bright?” Finance and Development, (with Aaditya Mattoo), March 2005.
- “Medicines, Patents and TRIPs,” Finance and Development, March 2004.
- “The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and Its Rules of Origin: Generosity Undermined?” The World Economy, Vol. 26, No. 6, (with Aaditya Mattoo and Devesh Roy), 2003.
- “The WTO and Poorest Countries: The Stark Reality,” World Trade Review, (with Aaditya Mattoo), 2003.
- “Measuring Services Trade Liberalization and Its Impact on Economic Growth: An Illustration,” Journal of Economic Integration, (with Aaditya Mattoo and Randeep Rathindran), 2002.
- “Dynamic Gains from Trade – Evidence from South Africa,” IMF Staff Papers Vol. 48 No. 1, (with Gunnar Jonsson), 2001.
- “Can TRIPS Serve as An Enforcement Device in the WTO?” Journal of International Economic Law, (with J. Watal), 2000.
- “Trade and the Environment: A Nearly Empty Box?” The World Economy, 1992.
- “TRIPs and the Paradigm of the GATT: A Tropical, Temperate View,” World Economy, 1990.
- “The International Economics of Intellectual Property Right Protection: A Welfare-Theoretic Trade Policy Analysis,” World Development, Vol. 19, No. 8.
- “Regulatory Autonomy and Multilateral Disciplines: the Dilemma and a Possible Resolution,” Journal of International Economic Law, Vol. 9 No. 2, (with Aaditya Mattoo.)
India: Trade and Intellectual Property
- “India as User and Creator of Intellectual Property: The Challenges Post-Doha,” in India and the WTO, edited by A. Mattoo and R. Stern, World Bank), 2003.
- “India and the Multilateral Trading System Post-Doha: Defensive or Proactive?” in India and the WTO, edited by A. Mattoo and R. Stern, World Bank, (with A. Mattoo), 2003.
- “The Case for a US-India Free Trade Agreement,” Economic and Political Weekly, (with A. Mattoo), 2003.
- “Putting Some Numbers on the TRIPS Pharmaceutical Debate,” International Journal of Technology Management, 1994.
Book, op-eds and other
- “Efficiency, Equity, and Legitimacy: The Multilateral Trading System at the Millenium,” Brookings/Harvard University Press, (edited with Roger Porter and Pierre Sauvé), 2002.
- Profile of Paul Krugman: “Economist as Crusader,” Finance and Development, June 2006.
- “The Bangalore Bug,” op-ed in the Financial Times, (with Raghuram Rajan), 2006.
- “China’s exchange rate,” op-ed in the Financial Times, (with Raghuram Rajan), 2005.
- Profile of Jagdish Bhagwati: “The Globalization Guru,” Finance and Development, September 2005.
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