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When a poor country finds oil, bad things often get worse. Countries rich in extractable natural resources, especially oil, frequently suffer from crummy governance, high poverty, endemic corruption and conflict. Is it possible to beat this oil curse? My guest on the Wonkcast this week, Todd Moss, CGD vice president for programs and senior fellow, says yes. He argues that a government that transfers some or all of its oil revenue to citizens in a universal, transparent, and regular taxable payment, could strengthen the social contract, fight corruption, and lay the foundation for future prosperity.  

David Wheeler, our lead researcher on climate and development, decided recently to retire from CGD, though he will continue to be active in CGD’s intellectual life as our first Senior Fellow Emeritus. Since joining CGD in 2006, David has published more than 20 working papers and launched two path-breaking global databases, Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA), which provides data on the CO2 emissions of more than 50,000 powerplants worldwide, and Forest Monitoring for Action (FORMA), which uses satellite data to provide rapid, high-resolution tracking of tropical deforestation.

We discuss some surprising findings from David’s newly released analysis (Forest Clearing in the Pantropics:  December 2005-August 2011) of the FORMA data. There is both good news and bad news. Total forest clearing has dropped during the global recession, but with enormous variation within countries and across regions, he says. For example, there have been large declines in the rate of forest clearing in Brazil, Bolivia, Indonesia, and Paraguay but large increases in Myanmar, Malaysia, Peru, and Venezuela.  A companion paper (Economic Dynamics and Forest Clearing) finds that economic factors such as market prices, exchange rates, and interest rates all influence forest clearing.  The availability of communications infrastructure such as mobile phones, zoning, rainfall and terrain slope also play a role.

Program-for-Results (PforR), a new World Bank lending instrument, is one of several innovative approaches to development aid that focus on measurable development outcomes. Proponents argue that PforR will help strengthen institutions, build capacity, and enhance partnerships. Critics contend it may bypass hard-won social and environmental safeguards. This event will include an overview of the approach followed by a panel discussion with aid experts with a variety of perspectives.

Global health funders have historically focused their aid on countries with the lowest per capita incomes, on the assumption that that’s where most of world’s poor people live.  In recent years, however, many large developing countries achieved rapid growth, lifting them into the ranks of the so-called middle-income countries, or MICs, even though they are still home to hundreds of millions of very poor people.  Andy Sumner has called the poor people in the MICs a “new bottom billion”, as distinct from the bottom billion in poor and fragile states that Paul Collier wrote about in a popular 2007 book.

In this week’s Wonkcast, I ask Amanda Glassman, a CGD research fellow and director of our global health policy program, how global health funders should respond to the emergence of the new bottom billion. Should money that now goes to the world’s poorest countries be reallocated to reach poor people who happen to live in the new MICs? Are there other ways that the global community can help? Amanda’s answers draw on the findings of a new working paper she wrote jointly with Sumner and Denizhan Duran, and an accompanying policy brief. 

As part of a special edition of CNN program, CNN Dinero, Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez formed part of a panel discussing global economic prospects for 2012. She emphasized that events in Europe will determine growth prospects around the globe. Liliana is not optimistic about the resolution of the Eurozone crisis given the lack of a decisive and coordinated efforts to deal with two major problems: (a) mounting difficulties in the banking sector; and (b) the European Central Bank’s reluctance to behave as a lender of last resort. If this trend were to continue in 2012, a number of defaults will materialize and the Eurozone will not survive in its current form. A much needed large increase in IMF resources to contain the European crisis will also continue to face severe impediments in 2012 in view of the ongoing political mess in the US, whose vote is needed for a formal increase in the lender’s resources.

U.S. - Pakistan relations, troubled in the best of times, have been unusually rocky of late. A recent cover story in The Atlantic dubbed Pakistan the “Ally from Hell.” CGD’s Study Group on the U.S. Development Strategy in Pakistan argues that the strong U.S. interest in a stable, prosperous Pakistan makes savvy U.S. support for development there more important than ever. In this week’s wonkcast, post-doctoral research fellow Milan Vaishnav and policy analyst Danny Cutherell discuss the recent upsets in U.S.-Pakistan relations and offer practical suggestions, drawn from the CGD Study Group’s report and a recent open letter from CGD president Nancy Birdsall to deputy secretary of state Thomas Nides, which focuses on U.S. support for private sector growth in Pakistan.

Microfinance has been whiplashed by the hype cycle. Where it once was seen as a powerful treatment for poverty, recent headlines have favored phrases such as “borrower revolt,” “doesn’t work after all,” and “suicide.” What to make of this cacophony? David Roodman seeks the sensible truth in his new book, Due Diligence: An Impertinent Inquiry into Microfinance, with an investigation that is unprecedented in its depth and breadth. He concludes that, while financial services are no more likely to lift people out of poverty than clean water and electricity, the microfinance movement has built thriving industries that deliver valuable services to millions of poor people. The challenge going forward is to help microfinance play to its strengths. In general, that calls for putting less money into microcredit, to avoid credit bubbles and increase the incentive for microfinance institutions to take savings deposits.

I recently interviewed Owen Barder, CGD senior fellow and director for Europe, shortly after his return from the Fourth High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan, South Korea. Did the December forum, with some 3,000 participants from around the world, matter to development?

We begin our interview by discussing the city of Busan itself, and South Korea’s dramatic transformation from aid recipient to donor. Busan is now a bustling city and the 5th largest port in the world. We then consider four conference outcomes that Owen identified in a blog post http://www.owen.org/blog/5131 soon after the conference: increased participation by emerging donors; a new deal for fragile states; significant progress on transparency, including a U.S. decision to join the International Aid Transparency Initiative (IATI); and significant changes in the international governance of the aid system.

My guest on this week’s Wonkcast is David Roodman, senior fellow and author of the long-awaited book, Due Diligence: An Impertinent Inquiry into Microfinance. After more than three years of unprecedented investigation into the movement, David was able to cut through the hype and come to understand the capabilities and limitations of microfinance in ending poverty.

David explains that while the microfinance movement has built thriving industries that deliver valuable services to millions of poor people, he hopes his book will help the industry shift away from its traditional emphasis on credit to other services focused on savings, insurance, and new technology.

Most low-income countries (LICs) recovered swiftly from the 2008-9 global crisis and have grown strongly since early 2010. But progress in rebuilding macroeconomic buffers has been slow, and the LICs are now less well prepared to deal with external shocks than they were before the crisis. At a time when the risks to the global outlook are intensifying, a new IMF study finds that many LICs would struggle to cope with a renewed global downturn. In a second report, the IMF and World Bank explore the role contingent financial instruments—such as commodity hedging, contingent debt, and insurance—could play to help LICs manage global volatility. IMF staff will present the key findings of these studies, highlighting the policy implications for LICs and the international community, with comments by expert discussants to follow.

At this breakfast discussion, CGD policy analyst Casey Dunning will forecast which countries the MCC board is likely to select for FY2012 compact and threshold funding at its December 15th board meeting. This deliberation marks the ninth round of the MCC eligibility selection process. Drawing on a recent MCA Monitor analysis, Casey Dunning and Owen McCarthy will highlight current issues affecting the MCC’s selection process, including the new selection system, second compact eligibility, and the revised threshold program—and suggest principles that should guide the MCC board and management team as they choose eligible countries for FY2012.

Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez was interviewed by CNN en Español on dealing with the current banking problems in Europe. With the escalation of the banking problems, some countries, such as Greece, need a comprehensive restructuring of their banking systems, while many others need a TARP-like program to support re-capitalizations. As the crisis keeps progressing, liquidity support from the European Central Bank (ECB) is proving insufficient. Assistance from the IMF is pivotal to support not only Europe but also the rest of the world should a full-fledged crisis emerge in Europe. The situation is complicated by the fact that the IMF is in need of greater funds and their largest stake holder, the United States, is not in a position to offer support due to their own political challenges.

In this Wonkcast, originally posted on September 7, 2011, Michael Clemens explains why one of the biggest growth opportunities in the world economy lies not in the mobility of goods or capital, but in the mobility of labor. His message remains relevant as International Migrants Day approaches on December 18th. In his recent blog, Clemens argues we have plenty of reason to celebrate the movement of people – and backs it up with economic evidence and history.

If you found a trillion-dollar bill on the sidewalk, would you pick it up? Michael Clemens thinks he has found a bunch of such bills—huge gains to the poor people and the world economy that could be achieved by easing restrictions on cross-border labor mobility. He has written a working paper that sets forth a new research agenda on migration and is urging economists to pay more attention to the benefits of increased labor mobility for the people who move, the people and countries that receive them, and those who remain at home. In this week’s Wonkcast we discuss his four-point research agenda, and explore why some important questions about labor mobility are so rarely investigated.

Join us in honoring Geeta Rao Gupta, winner of the 2011 Commitment to Development Award, sponsored by the Center for Global Development (CGD) and Foreign Policy Magazine. Bestowed annually since 2003, the Award honors an individual or organization that has made a significant contribution to changing attitudes and policies towards the developing world. Geeta Rao Gupta, former president of the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW), has provided strong leadership in ensuring a steady flow of research evidence about how to translate advocacy for women in the developing world into policy priorities and practical programs. Gender would not have such a fundamental role in development if not for the work that Geeta and her predecessors and successors have championed at ICRW.

On December 15th the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), an innovative U.S. aid agency, is set to announce which countries will receive its unique development assistance. Casey Dunning, policy analyst at CGD and my guest on this week’s Wonkcast, provides insight and recommendations on how these countries will (and should) be selected. I catch Casey shortly after her return from Honduras, where she saw firsthand the positive impacts of an MCC compact on rural development and highway construction.

The U.S. military has become increasingly involved in economic development, fulfilling roles normally played by USAID and other development NGOs. My guests this week, senior fellow Vijaya Ramachandran and research assistant Julie Walz, discuss their recent paper written with Gregory Johnson on the Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP), which provides funds for development projects in Afghanistan as part of the military’s development operations. While Vij and Julie are not advocating for or against military involvement in development, they recognize its occurrence and offer practical recommendations.

Ghana’s recent recalculation of its GDP led to an overnight $500 per capita jump, putting in motion unexpectedly rapid graduation from the International Development Association (IDA) and ultimately a new relationship with the World Bank. In this week’s Wonkcast, I speak with Todd Moss, vice president for programs and senior fellow at CGD, about his recent trip to the newly categorized lower-middle income country, the implications of IDA graduation, and a sudden influx of oil wealth.

On November 29th, aid donor and recipients will convene in Busan, South Korea at the Fourth High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness. In this week’s Wonkcast, I speak with Homi Kharas, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Rita Perakis, program coordinator at the Center for Global Development, about the new 2011 Brookings-CGD Quality of Official Development Assistance assessment (QuODA) and how it can help to hold donors accountable to their own aid effectiveness pledges.

Homi explains that he and Nancy Birdsall began work on QuODA after aid effectiveness forums in Paris and Accra drew international attention to the importance of aid quality. Previously the debate had focused almost entirely on quantity and how well recipients used aid, rather than the problems and opportunities in how the aid was delivered.   

My guest this week is Mead Over, one of the world’s leading experts on the global response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. We discuss his new book, Achieving an Aids Transition: Preventing Infections to Sustain Treatment. The key idea is simple but powerful. Mead argues that, instead of reaching vainly for the unsustainable goal of offering treatment to everyone in the developing world who needs it, donor policy should aim to sustain current treatment levels while reducing the number of new infections below the number of AIDS deaths, so that the total number of people with HIV/AIDS declines.

The Arab Spring has grabbed the world’s attention, yet Iraq—the Arab country that not long ago was the very epicenter of American foreign policy—has almost entirely fallen off the front pages. While Iraq’s security has improved greatly, the country is still struggling to consolidate a functional government and come up with a coherent spending plan for its oil wealth. In a new CGD working paper, “Iraq’s Last Window: Diffusing the Risks of a Petro-State,” Johnny West, a longtime journalist in the Middle East and author of the recent book, Karama! Journeys through the Arab Spring, identifies a new opportunity for direct distribution of Iraqi oil rents that he argues could halve poverty, diversify the economy and cement territorial integrity by giving Iraqis a stake in their oil wealth. The event will feature a brief presentation of the paper by West, followed by a discussion with a distinguished panel.

An estimated one billion people suffer from one or more neglected diseases like Tuberculosis, Malaria, Dengue Fever or others, and hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent to find effective treatments. Medicines, therapies and treatments have been discovered, but regulatory barriers in the late-stage clinical trials of developing countries have prevented these drugs from helping those in need.

How well did the 22 rich countries that belong to the OECD Development Committee (OECD-DAC) perform in terms of supporting development in 2011? In this week’s Wonkcast, my guest David Roodman, architect of the Commitment to Development Index (CDI), explains some surprising results of the newly released 2011 CDI. While the United States climbed the charts due to a controversial increase in internationally mandated military intervention in Afghanistan, other countries such as Spain and Ireland fell in the rankings because of slower immigration from developing countries.

I also ask David about CGD’s new research data disclosure policy, and its potential to help him improve the Index. As a result of this policy, which David initiated, and the World Bank’s decision to offer free access to its World Development Indicators, full CDI data and “do files” are now available on-line. David encourages students and researchers to poke at it—he is modestly confident that somebody will find some bugs. To read full show summary of the Wonkcast go to www.cgdev.org/wonkcast.

In this Wonkcast, originally posted on July 2010, Tom Bollyky explains the problems that motivated him in establishing CGD’s Clinical Trials and Regulatory Pathways Working Group. The group’s final report, Safer, Faster, Cheaper: Improving Clinical Trials and Regulatory Pathways to Fight Neglected Diseases, will be released on Monday, October 31, with keynote remarks by Margaret Hamburg, Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Listen to the Wonkcast to understand the problems and get a sneak preview on the proposed solutions. RSVP here to attend the event.

When Dominique Straus-Kahn resigned suddenly as head of the International Monetary Fund last May, the world was thrown unexpectedly into search for his successor. Within days, CGD launched a survey of the global development community opinion on three issues: the selection process, criteria for rating the candidates, and ratings for 15 candidates identified in international media. My guest on this Wonkcast is David Wheeler, who led the survey and a similar survey on the process for selecting the president of the World Bank when Paul Wolfowitz resigned from that post in 2007. The big take away (summarized in CGD working papers here and here): Regardless of nationality, a huge majority of respondents agree on the need to reform the leadership selection processes for the two Bretton Woods institutions.

My guest this week is Todd Moss, senior fellow and vice president for programs here at the Center for Global Development. Our topic is the newly updated edition of his popular primer: African Development: Making Sense of the Issues and Actors.

Todd tells me his publisher, Lynne Rienner, urged him to update the book, first published in 2007, because of the rapid pace of change in Africa, and the strong and growing interest in Africa among U.S. college students, a key audience for the book.