Ideas to Action:

Independent research for global prosperity

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CGD's weekly Global Prosperity Wonkcast, event videos, whiteboard talks, slides, and more.

The New Bottom Billion: Andy Sumner

Andy Sumner Paul Collier’s 2007 book, The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It, changed the way we think about poverty and development. Collier argued that the majority of the 5-billion people in the "developing world" live in countries with sustained high growth rates and would eventually escape from poverty. The rest—the bottom billion—live in 58 small, poor, often land-locked countries that are growing very slowly or not at all. These countries, stuck in poverty traps, should be the focus of foreign aid, Collier argued.

Andy Sumner, a visiting fellow at CGD and research fellow at the Institute for Development Studies at Sussex University, is boldly challenging that view with more recent data and a new frame of reference that tell a surprisingly different story: three out of four of the world’s poorest people, Andy asserts, live in middle-income countries with impressive growth rates but may nonetheless are trapped in extreme poverty. Andy joins me on this week’s Wonkcast to discuss his work on this “new” bottom billion.

Multidimensional Poverty - Massachusetts Ave Development Seminar (Video)

Twenty-five years ago, James Foster's influential work with Joel Greer and Erick Thorbecke helped define the way the world measures poverty. Foster will present his recent work on the theory of how to measure poverty when we care not only about income but also other dimensions of well-being such as health and education. Martin Ravallion, Director of the Development Research Group at the World Bank, is the author of a new essay that criticizes the idea of a single multidimensional index. He will argue instead that multiple indicators should be tracked separately.

FAI Insights: What Is Rigorous Impact Evaluation?

Rachel Nugent

Michael Clemens, Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Development (CGD)
and visiting scholar at the Financial Access Initiative and at NYU-Wagner
and the NYU Dept. of Economics (Spring 2011), talks about the findings from
his research into the UN Millennium Villages.

Overcoming Patronage in New Democracies: Simeon Nichter

Simeon NichterIn 1974, three out of four countries were ruled by authoritarian regimes; today, nearly half of all governments are democratically elected—and even more democracies may be emerging in the Middle East. But with elections come new form of patronage—such as offering benefits in exchange for votes—that can undermine the intent of democracy and effectiveness of programs intended to help the poor. My guest this week, Simeon Nichter, a CGD post-doctoral fellow, is studying a phenomenon that has important implications for development but is often overlooked in optimistic accounts of democratic progress.

Nancy Birdsall on The Role of Emerging Market Economies in the IMF

Bringing together voices from inside and outside the Fund, the IMF interviewed a number of government officials, NGO representatives, and IMF staff to discuss the new role of emerging market and low-income countries in the IMF.

In this video clip, CGD’s president Nancy Birdsall explains what compromises must be made before emerging market economies assume more control over the IMF. While the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) need to convince the US and Europe that they can be reliable global stewards, rich countries must realize that greater participation is in the long-term interests of all countries.

Egypt’s Next Big Challenge: Overcoming Reliance on Rents

Arvin SubramanianAfter the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak last Friday, I invited Arvind Subramanian, a former IMF resident representative in Cairo and a regular columnist for the Business Standard, the leading business daily in his native India, to share his views on Egypt’s economic prospects.

In the interview, Arvind argues that Egypt’s biggest economic challenge is reliance on rents, which he defines as wealth derived from historical and geographical legacies rather than job-generating economic growth. Arvind includes among these the Suez Canal, which I was surprised to learn generates some $5 billion a year in fees; aid received in exchange for peace with Israel; the pyramids and other antiquities that draw tourists, and even remittances, which he says are the result not of Egyptian success but of failure that forces its citizens to seek work abroad.

Confronting the Global Tobacco Epidemic: Thomas Bollyky

Tom BollykyTen years after President Clinton's initiative to avert a global epidemic of tobacco-related disease, smoking is down in the United States but rising fast in poor countries, where Washington turns a blind eye to aggressive cigarette marketing banned at home.

My guest on this show is Thomas Bollyky, a visiting fellow here at CGD. Tom recently marked the 10th anniversary of Clinton’s order with articles in Foreign Policy and the Journal of the American Medical Association about how U.S. efforts to combat the global tobacco epidemic have remained modest, while tobacco companies have aggressively expanded markets for their products and opposed tobacco control and prevention programs in low- and middle-income countries.