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A Moveable Feast of Meetings: Owen Barder

9/27/11

Owen Barder

Last week finance ministers and central bankers from around the globe convened in Washington for the annual meetings of the international Monetary Fund and World Bank. While the press and many of the meeting participants focused on the unfolding European financial crisis, below the radar there was plenty of discussion on development issues, including on the legacy of the Seoul Development Consensus and the role of development in the upcoming G-20 Summit in France. 

In this week’s Wonkcast, Owen Barder, CGD senior fellow, director of our European program, and host of the podcast Development Drums, updates us on the state of the development debate in these global gatherings. I also invite him to reflect on whether such confabs, including the last week’s UN General Assembly in New York and November’s upcoming High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan, South Korea, ultimately make any difference. His conclusion can be summed up simply: “can’t live with em, can’t live without em.” 

Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance: Arvind Subramanian

9/20/11

Arvind Subramanian

“February 2021. It’s a cold blustery morning in Washington. The newly inaugurated president of the United States is on his way to the office of the Chinese managing director of the IMF to sign the agreement under which the IMF will provide 3 trillion dollars in emergency financing to the U.S. and the conditionality to which the U.S. will have to adhere.”

Sound like science fiction? To Arvind Subramanian, a joint-fellow at the Peterson Institute and the Center for Global Development, it’s more like economic inevitability – a world in which the United States has no choice but to cede global leadership to China—and accept it’s terms, which in this imaginary case includes withdrawal from the Western Pacific. Arvind joins me on this week’s Wonkcast to explain the careful quantitative analysis that underpins that startling opening passage from his new book Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance.

The Current Debt Crisis and the Possibility of a Banking Crisis in the European Union: Liliana Rojas-Suarez (interview)

9/16/11

Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez was interviewed by CNN en Español on the current debt crisis within Europe. In this interview she states her view that a banking crisis is highly likely within Europe. She notes that, in addition to the recent issues experienced by the French banks, many other European banks are struggling. As opposed to the United States, the problems in Europe started in the public sector and moved to the private sector; the banks, in particular. Also in contrast to the US, the European banks don’t have a full Lender of Last Resort (a function that the European Central Bank is not committed to pursue). Moreover, given the political disagreements within Germany, a TARP like program does not seem probable. In this context, banks’ recapitalization would need to take place with private sector resources, which are not forth coming given the low levels of confidence in European financial systems as the risk of contagion increases. For example, French banks have a large exposure to debt issued by Greece. At this point, if the ECB were to develop a deposit guarantee fund, Germany will have to provide the backing, which at this point looks unlikely.

Oil 2 Cash in Iraq: Johnny West

9/12/11

Johnny West is a man of many talents. An expert on oil, civil society, and governance in the Middle East who works as an advisor to the UNDP, he is fluent in Arabic, spent more than two decades in the Middle East as a journalist for Reuters, and has just published a highly readable book recounting his journey through the Arab Spring. On this week’s Wonkcast, we catch him between his travels to discuss a new working paper he’s written for CGD: Iraq’s Last Window: Diffusing the Risks of a Petro State. Johnny’s experience in the Middle East makes him think that the region just might be ripe for an Oil 2 Cash revolution that could help foster improvements in governance and reduce poverty.

He tells me that on a recent trip to Libya, while bouncing across the country on half-built dirt roads in the back of a pickup, he reflected on some startling calculations about the country’s oil industry. During the 42 years of Gaddafi rule, the dictator accumulated over $1 trillion in oil rents. At the same time, much of the country remains poor and a startling number of Libyans can neither read nor write.

Migration and the Trillion Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk: Michael Clemens

9/7/11

If you found a trillion-dollar bill on the sidewalk, would you pick it up? Michael Clemens thinks he has found a bunch of such bills—huge gains to the poor people and the world economy that could be achieved by easing restrictions on cross-border labor mobility.  He has written a working paper that sets forth a new research agenda on migration and is urging economists to pay more attention to the benefits of increased labor mobility for the people who move, the people and countries that receive them, and those who remain at home. In this week’s Wonkcast we discuss his four-point research agenda, and explore why some important questions about labor mobility are so rarely investigated.  

Take the topic of so-called “brain drain.” While plenty of research has gone into documenting the exodus of skilled workers from developing countries, Michael says, little research has examined the actual effects of these departures on those left behind—and even less has considered the welfare gains to those who move. “When people talk about migration at the international level, they tend to only focus on the costs,” says Michael. “This negative labeling happens to such a degree that they eventually define the movement with a pejorative little rhyme, brain drain.”

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