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When a poor country finds oil, bad things often get worse. Countries rich in extractable natural resources, especially oil, frequently suffer from crummy governance, high poverty, endemic corruption and conflict. Is it possible to beat this oil curse? My guest on the Wonkcast this week, Todd Moss, CGD vice president for programs and senior fellow, says yes. He argues that a government that transfers some or all of its oil revenue to citizens in a universal, transparent, and regular taxable payment, could strengthen the social contract, fight corruption, and lay the foundation for future prosperity.  

The Arab Spring has grabbed the world’s attention, yet Iraq—the Arab country that not long ago was the very epicenter of American foreign policy—has almost entirely fallen off the front pages. While Iraq’s security has improved greatly, the country is still struggling to consolidate a functional government and come up with a coherent spending plan for its oil wealth. In a new CGD working paper, “Iraq’s Last Window: Diffusing the Risks of a Petro-State,” Johnny West, a longtime journalist in the Middle East and author of the recent book, Karama! Journeys through the Arab Spring, identifies a new opportunity for direct distribution of Iraqi oil rents that he argues could halve poverty, diversify the economy and cement territorial integrity by giving Iraqis a stake in their oil wealth. The event will feature a brief presentation of the paper by West, followed by a discussion with a distinguished panel.

Many developing countries have found that large deposits of oil or other natural resources are more a curse than a blessing. My guest on this week's Wonkcast is Alan Gelb, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development. Together with co-author Sina Grassman, Alan has written a paper that explores the options facing developing countries with abundant natural resources and draws on historical evidence to recommend best practices for dodging the 'resource curse.'

We begin with a discussion of that curse. Alan explains the various problems that accompany oil revenues. Most obviously, that money is easy to misdirect and can often end up fueling corruption. But even for honest and well-intentioned leaders, oil money still presents special headaches. The extreme volatility of oil prices, which can vary by hundreds of percent from one year to the next, make it exceedingly difficult to plan national budgets. The trick is to stock away money in boom oil years to smooth spending in bust years—not easy even when small surpluses are involved. "Clearly you've got to save," Alan explains. But to flatten the boom-bust revenue cycle, "the typical producer may have to save an equivalent of its whole GDP."