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Liquidity Needs in Times of Stress: Should Latin America go Beyond the IMF? (Event Video)

12/18/12

Large accumulation of international reserves by Latin American countries was central in containing the adverse effects of the global financial crisis. Lines of credit from the Federal Reserve and the new liquidity facility from the IMF also played a key role, at least for some major countries. However, reserve accumulation is not free of cost, Fed support is not guaranteed and IMF resources might not be sufficient at times of systemic crises and may carry conditionality that make such assistance only contingent. This raises the question as to whether Latin America should actively pursue the effective implementation of regional arrangements capable of ensuring the availability of liquidity at times of acute financial stress. The Latin America Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee dealt with this issue by answering these questions, among others, and shared their statement publicly at this CGD event:

Liliana Rojas Suarez Discusses Risks to Growth Sustainability in Latin America

12/11/12

Amanda GlassmanIn these interviews Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez discusses the risks to growth sustainability in Latin American countries derived from the large vulnerabilities in advanced economies. In particular, she emphasizes risks for emerging markets from the lack of solution to the fiscal cliff problem in the U.S. While Liliana is confident about China's capacity to continue on a solid growth path (albeit at slower rates than those observed in previous years), she believes that the permanent solution to the European debt crisis requires either a comprehensive write-down of the Greek debt or a separation of Greece (and possibly Portugal) from the Eurozone.

Latin America's Surging Middle Classes: Are They Really a Force for Change? (event video)

11/16/12

Latin America's emerging middle class, defined as those unlikely to fall back into poverty, has grown by 50% in recent years and now includes one of every three people on the continent, roughly equal to the number of people who remain poor. A new World Bank study finds many potential benefits from this surging middle class but cautions that these benefits can only be fully realized if countries can strike a new social contract that links middle class interests to the inclusion of those left behind. The event will include presentation of the report's key findings and a panel discussion with some of the leading experts on the region's middle classes.

Liliana Rojas-Suarez on Canal N: Consequences for Latin America of an Intensification of the Financial Crisis in Europe

7/18/12

Liliana

In this interview with Canal N, the most prestigious Peruvian news channel, Liliana Rojas-Suarez, talks about the consequences for Latin America of an intensification of the financial crisis in Europe. In Liliana’s view, while increasing fragilities have started to show in some countries like Brazil, others like Chile and Peru remain quite strong and would remain highly resilient to a severe external shock.

Haitian Officials Welcome H-2 Visa Program – Michael Clemens

6/26/12

Michael Clemens

After the 2010 Haitian earthquake flattened Port-au-Prince, the United States responded with an outpouring of money, food, and medicine for Haiti. But a more effective form of assistance -- the powerful tool of migration and labor mobility -- was at first overlooked in relief and recovery efforts.

CGD senior fellow Michael Clemens led a two-year research and policy engagement effort that reached a milestone in January when the U.S. government added Haiti to the list of more than 50 countries eligible for temporary worker visas, the H-2 visa program.  Michael calculated at the time that if just 2,000 Haitians worked as H-2 workers in the United States each year (just 2% of total H-2s) over the course of 10 years they would earn $400 million in additional, new income for Haitian families—an amount equal to the entire U.S. post-earthquake budget for reconstruction in Haiti.

Haiti: Where Has All the Money Gone? – Vijaya Ramachandran and Julie Walz

5/15/12

Vijaya Ramachandran

Since the 2010 earthquake, $6 billion has been disbursed in official aid to help the people of Haiti. Nearly all of it has gone to intermediaries such as international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and private contractors. Yet there has been a surprising lack of reporting on how the money has been spent. CGD senior fellow Vijaya Ramachandran and research assistant Julie Walz try to follow the money in a new CGD policy paper: “Haiti: Where Has All the Money Gone?” They joined me on this week’s Wonkcast to explain their findings.

Latin American Lessons from the 2008 Financial Crisis – Liliana Rojas-Suarez

3/6/12

Liliana Rojas-Suarez

Conventional wisdom has it that when the United States catches a cold, Latin America gets pneumonia. But when the United States caught financial pneumonia in 2008, Latin America escaped with little more than a cold. What’s changed?  

In this week’s Wonkcast, CGD senior fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez explains why Latin America was mostly successful in coping with the fallout from the 2008 global financial crisis and she introduces a new methodology for predicting how countries will fare in the next global financial crisis. Our conversation draws on her new working paper, Credit at Times of Stress: Latin American Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis, written jointly with Carlos Montoro of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

Liliana Rojas-Suarez 2012 Global Economic Prospects in CNN in Spanish (Interview)

1/19/12

Owen Barder

As part of a special edition of CNN program, CNN Dinero, Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez formed part of a panel discussing global economic prospects for 2012. She emphasized that events in Europe will determine growth prospects around the globe. Liliana is not optimistic about the resolution of the Eurozone crisis given the lack of a decisive and coordinated efforts to deal with two major problems: (a) mounting difficulties in the banking sector; and (b) the European Central Bank’s reluctance to behave as a lender of last resort. If this trend were to continue in 2012, a number of defaults will materialize and the Eurozone will not survive in its current form. A much needed large increase in IMF resources to contain the European crisis will also continue to face severe impediments in 2012 in view of the ongoing political mess in the US, whose vote is needed for a formal increase in the lender’s resources.

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