Ideas to Action:

Independent research for global prosperity

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CGD's weekly Global Prosperity Wonkcast, event videos, whiteboard talks, slides, and more.

Global Risks for Low-Income Countries: Views on the IMF Perspective (Event Video)

Johnny West

Most low-income countries (LICs) recovered swiftly from the 2008-9 global crisis and have grown strongly since early 2010. But progress in rebuilding macroeconomic buffers has been slow, and the LICs are now less well prepared to deal with external shocks than they were before the crisis. At a time when the risks to the global outlook are intensifying, a new IMF study finds that many LICs would struggle to cope with a renewed global downturn. In a second report, the IMF and World Bank explore the role contingent financial instruments—such as commodity hedging, contingent debt, and insurance—could play to help LICs manage global volatility. IMF staff will present the key findings of these studies, highlighting the policy implications for LICs and the international community, with comments by expert discussants to follow.

Unlocking $1 Trillion for Developing Countries

Evalgap

Lawrence Macdonald, vice president for communications and policy outreach at the Center for Global Development, explains how CGD helped make $1 trillion available to developing countries after the global financial crisis. In the spring of 2009, the participation of developing countries in the global stimulus was made possible at the G-20 summit. But how much money was needed for the most vulnerable countries and where would it come from? Nancy Birdsall, president of CGD, prepared a note stating that they would need access to 1 trillion dollars to cope with the effects of the crisis. Birdsall then put together a blueprint for making the resources available. By channeling the plan to the right people and testifying in front of Congress, CGD helped to unlock the $1 trillion and make it possible for the IMF and World Bank to help vulnerable countries cope with the crisis.  

Achieving an AIDS Transition - Mead Over

My guest this week is Mead Over, one of the world’s leading experts on the global response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. We discuss his new book, Achieving an Aids Transition: Preventing Infections to Sustain Treatment. The key idea is simple but powerful. Mead argues that, instead of reaching vainly for the unsustainable goal of offering treatment to everyone in the developing world who needs it, donor policy should aim to sustain current treatment levels while reducing the number of new infections below the number of AIDS deaths, so that the total number of people with HIV/AIDS declines.

Bringing Needed Medicines to Market: Tom Bollyky

Tom Bollyky
In this Wonkcast, originally posted on July 2010, Tom Bollyky explains the problems that motivated him in establishing CGD’s Clinical Trials and Regulatory Pathways Working Group. The group’s final report, Safer, Faster, Cheaper: Improving Clinical Trials and Regulatory Pathways to Fight Neglected Diseases, will be released on Monday, October 31, with keynote remarks by Margaret Hamburg, Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Listen to the Wonkcast to understand the problems and get a sneak preview on the proposed solutions. RSVP here to attend the event.

A Global Consensus on Reforming IMF Leadership Selection: David Wheeler

When Dominique Straus-Kahn resigned suddenly as head of the International Monetary Fund last May, the world was thrown unexpectedly into search for his successor. Within days, CGD launched a survey of the global development community opinion on three issues: the selection process, criteria for rating the candidates, and ratings for 15 candidates identified in international media.

My guest on this Wonkcast is David Wheeler, who led the survey and a similar survey on the process for selecting the president of the World Bank when Paul Wolfowitz resigned from that post in 2007. The big take away (summarized in CGD working papers here and here): Regardless of nationality, a huge majority of respondents agree on the need to reform the leadership selection processes for the two Bretton Woods institutions.

African Development: Making Sense of the Issues and Actors – Todd Moss

Todd Moss

My guest this week is Todd Moss, senior fellow and vice president for programs here at the Center for Global Development. Our topic is the newly updated edition of his popular primer: African Development: Making Sense of the Issues and Actors.

Todd tells me his publisher, Lynne Rienner, urged him to update the book, first published in 2007, because of the rapid pace of change in Africa, and the strong and growing interest in Africa among U.S. college students, a key audience for the book.

A Moveable Feast of Meetings: Owen Barder

Owen Barder

Last week finance ministers and central bankers from around the globe convened in Washington for the annual meetings of the international Monetary Fund and World Bank. While the press and many of the meeting participants focused on the unfolding European financial crisis, below the radar there was plenty of discussion on development issues, including on the legacy of the Seoul Development Consensus and the role of development in the upcoming G-20 Summit in France. 

In this week’s Wonkcast, Owen Barder, CGD senior fellow, director of our European program, and host of the podcast Development Drums, updates us on the state of the development debate in these global gatherings. I also invite him to reflect on whether such confabs, including the last week’s UN General Assembly in New York and November’s upcoming High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan, South Korea, ultimately make any difference. His conclusion can be summed up simply: “can’t live with em, can’t live without em.” 

Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance: Arvind Subramanian

Arvind Subramanian

“February 2021. It’s a cold blustery morning in Washington. The newly inaugurated president of the United States is on his way to the office of the Chinese managing director of the IMF to sign the agreement under which the IMF will provide 3 trillion dollars in emergency financing to the U.S. and the conditionality to which the U.S. will have to adhere.”

Sound like science fiction? To Arvind Subramanian, a joint-fellow at the Peterson Institute and the Center for Global Development, it’s more like economic inevitability – a world in which the United States has no choice but to cede global leadership to China—and accept it’s terms, which in this imaginary case includes withdrawal from the Western Pacific. Arvind joins me on this week’s Wonkcast to explain the careful quantitative analysis that underpins that startling opening passage from his new book Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance.

Migration and the Trillion Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk: Michael Clemens

If you found a trillion-dollar bill on the sidewalk, would you pick it up? Michael Clemens thinks he has found a bunch of such bills—huge gains to the poor people and the world economy that could be achieved by easing restrictions on cross-border labor mobility.  He has written a working paper that sets forth a new research agenda on migration and is urging economists to pay more attention to the benefits of increased labor mobility for the people who move, the people and countries that receive them, and those who remain at home. In this week’s Wonkcast we discuss his four-point research agenda, and explore why some important questions about labor mobility are so rarely investigated.  

Take the topic of so-called “brain drain.” While plenty of research has gone into documenting the exodus of skilled workers from developing countries, Michael says, little research has examined the actual effects of these departures on those left behind—and even less has considered the welfare gains to those who move. “When people talk about migration at the international level, they tend to only focus on the costs,” says Michael. “This negative labeling happens to such a degree that they eventually define the movement with a pejorative little rhyme, brain drain.”

Holiday in Harare: Alan Gelb

Alan Gelb

What does extreme hyperinflation look like? Consider a pile of currency tall enough to encircle our entire galaxy. That’s how many Zimbabwean dollars you would have needed by the end of the country’s extraordinary inflationary crisis to equal one pre-crisis Zim dollar, according to CGD senior fellow Alan Gelb. Newly returned from a holiday in Zimbabwe with his wife, who was born in Zimbabwe, Alan shared his observations and reflections on the country’s fate in a blog post that provided the starting point for our Wonkcast chat.

Hail the Scholar-Practitioners: Nora Lustig

Here at CGD, we talk a lot about the “what” of policy. We’re in the business of ideas and that sometimes leads us to overlook the crucial question of the “who” in the policy process.

Thankfully we have Nora Lustig, a non-resident fellow at the Center for Global Development, Samuel Z. Stone Professor of Latin American economics at Tulane University, and non-resident fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue. Nora has just written a working paper on the role of scholar-practitioners in the creation, design, evaluation, and political survival of Mexico’s Progresa/Oportunidades anti-poverty program, which has become a model for both impact evaluation and for conditional cash transfer programs around the world. On this week’s show, she draws on her new paper to tell me the story of scholar-practitioners and Protgresa/Oportunidades.

Turning the Tide in the War on Tobacco: Bill Savedoff

Most people understand the personal risks associated with smoking, but surprisingly few understand its impact globally. Every year, more people die form tobacco related illnesses than from HIV/Aids, TB and malaria combined. Nevertheless, governments and international aid agencies have yet ot pay serious attention to what some believe to be one of hte most needless disease burdens in human history.

Here to breathe some fresh air into the fight to curb smoking is senior fellow Bill Savedoff, who joins me this week to discuss his latest blog post, Death by Tobacco: A Big Problem Needs Bigger Action. Upon returning from a meeting on tobacco control in New York City last month. Bill set out to raise the alarm about something he found to be shockingly little-known: the shockingly low cost of highly effective tobacco controls.

Famine in the Horn of Africa: Owen Barder

Owen Barder

It’s not often that the United Nations sees fit to officially declare a food crisis a famine. That’s a testament to the severity of the ongoing suffering in Somalia, a disaster of biblical proportions that has already claimed the lives of tens of thousands. But evidence abounds that famines are not only the result of natural occurrences. On the contrary, most are the shocking result of human error or, in the worst case, deliberate neglect.



This was the message Owen Barder drove home to me in this week’s Wonkcast. Owen acquired an intimate understanding of the realities of food scarcity when he traveled to Ethiopia during the food crisis of 1984-85, and more recently while spending three years in the capital, Addis Ababa. To him, governance and information are central components of food emergencies.

Jenny Aker: Mobile Phones for Development—Hope vs. Hype

Jenny AkerAre mobile phones revolutionizing development in Africa, or have they been over-hyped? My guest this week, Jenny Aker, says the truth is a little of both. Jenny is an assistant professor at Tufts University’s Fletcher School and a non-resident fellow here at the Center for Global Development. Her research interests include the impact of communication technologies in poor countries, especially Africa.

Mobile phone use has spread across Africa at a stunning pace. The percentage of Africans who could access a mobile phone leapt from only 10% in 1999 to more than 60% by 2008—far outstripping improvements in other infrastructure (roads, clean water, or indeed landline telephones). In a new CGD working paper, to be published later this summer in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Jenny and her co-author Isaac Mbiti describe four main ways phones have been applied to the problems of the poor. In the Wonkcast, we discuss these four applications:

The Debt Cap Showdown and the Developing World: Liliana Rojas-Suarez

Liliana Rojas-Suarez

The American media is abuzz with stories of doom and gloom as tensions mount over stalled efforts to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. Europe, meanwhile, has its own debt woes, with mounting fears that a default in Greece could spill over into Ireland, Portugal and Spain. So far, however, there has been relatively little discussion about what these twin crises would mean for the 5 billion people living in developing countries. Sadly, those with the least influence over the issue could pay the highest price.

On this week’s Wonkcast, I invite senior CGD fellow and global finance expert Liliana Rojas-Suarez to explain why it’s important to the rest of the world that Europe and the United States put their financial affairs in order. The showdown in the U.S. is especially worrying, Liliana says, because of the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency.

 

Prospects for South Sudan, the World’s Newest Nation: Ben Leo

Ben LeoOn Saturday the world’s newest nation exuberantly celebrated its first independence day. The Republic of South Sudan, an area the size of Texas that is home to eight million people, has finally fulfilled its long-sought goal of freedom and self-determination. Independence however, is just the beginning.

My guest this week is Ben Leo, a CGD research fellow and expert on the economic issues concerning the new nation of South Sudan and its major challenges going forward.

Hedging Against Hunger: Connie Veillette & Ben Leo

U.S. food aidEvery year, billions of dollars are spent on food assistance to provide lifesaving sustenance to millions of people. That’s a lot of money, and an important cause, so it was encouraging to learn last week that the United States and the G-20 are starting to seriously scrutinize food aid policy. Recent developments in Washington and Paris show a growing consensus that it’s about time to overhaul outdated approaches to feeding the hungry.

Joining me this week to discuss these developments is Connie Veillette, director of CGD’s Rethinking U.S. Foreign Assistance Program and CGD research fellow Ben Leo. Having closely tracked U.S. and international food aid, both have concluded that reforms in financing, procurement and delivery can help ensure that food aid reaches more people who need it at lower cost.

Finding the Funding for GAVI: Amanda Glassman

Amanda Glassman

My guest on this show is Amanda Glassman, research fellow and director of CGD’s Global Health Program. I recorded this Wonkcast with her last week, just ahead of the first pledging session for the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations (GAVI). 

GAVI is a coalition of private foundations and donor country governments who work to increase the availability of vaccines, a highly cost-effective health intervention that is chronically under provided. Among other mechanisms, GAVI buys the vaccines at discount by purchasing in bulk, then passes the savings onto poor countries and expanding coverage. Over the past 10 years, GAVI estimates it has saved 5 million children from vaccine vaccine-preventable diseases, an accomplishment which Amanda considers to be remarkable.

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