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Many developing countries have found that large deposits of oil or other natural resources are more a curse than a blessing. My guest on this week's Wonkcast is Alan Gelb, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development. Together with co-author Sina Grassman, Alan has written a paper that explores the options facing developing countries with abundant natural resources and draws on historical evidence to recommend best practices for dodging the 'resource curse.'

We begin with a discussion of that curse. Alan explains the various problems that accompany oil revenues. Most obviously, that money is easy to misdirect and can often end up fueling corruption. But even for honest and well-intentioned leaders, oil money still presents special headaches. The extreme volatility of oil prices, which can vary by hundreds of percent from one year to the next, make it exceedingly difficult to plan national budgets. The trick is to stock away money in boom oil years to smooth spending in bust years—not easy even when small surpluses are involved. "Clearly you've got to save," Alan explains. But to flatten the boom-bust revenue cycle, "the typical producer may have to save an equivalent of its whole GDP."

Which countries are leading the pack on achieving the Millennium Development Goals? My guest this week is CGD research fellow Ben Leo. In a new working paper, Ben lays out an index for measuring country-level progress towards the MDGs. His paper, the first to offer comparative country-level rankings of progress towards key MDG-related indicators, finds some surprising trailblazers. Who knew that Honduras would come out on top!?

As the UN prepares for the MDG Review Summit next month, the conventional wisdom is that the global progress has been adequate—mostly because of China’s huge size and rapid poverty reduction—but that Africa lags sadly behind. Ben says that this view is overly simplistic, if not just plain wrong. Africa accounts for four of the fifteen countries ranked as “trailblazers,” on track to reach at least half of the examined MDG indicators by the 2015 target year (they are: Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, and Uganda). Notwithstanding that the MDGs are wildly over ambitious given historical rates of progress (see here and here), Ben finds that low-income countries have made as much progress as middle-income countries. And some countries that we might expect to see on the trailblazer list, such as Tanzania, have performed poorly.

Even as the cost of treating HIV/AIDS has fallen dramatically, the number of people newly infected has remained high. What can be done to reverse this trend and finally defeat this disease? This week on the Wonkcast, I’m joined by Mead Over, a senior fellow here at the Center for Global Development and perhaps the world’s leading expert on the economics of HIV/AIDS. He has recently published two major essays, which introduce the concept of the “AIDS transition”—the point in time where the number of people living with the disease begins to fall. He argues persuasively that to reach this point, international donors must greatly strengthen incentives for effective prevention.

Fueled by charitable giving, more and more medical research is focusing on treating and curing thus-far neglected diseases. Is the regulatory framework ready? My guest this week is Tom Bollyky, a visiting fellow here at the Center for Global Development. Tom is a lawyer by training, and is currently working on the important legal and regulatory issues surrounding clinical trials for medicines to treat neglected diseases.

For those unfamiliar with the scale of the problem, Tom gives a quick introduction to what neglected diseases are. Common diseases like malaria and tuberculosis and less common diseases like dengue fever and hookworm together afflict more than one billion people worldwide. Yet, because they’re not big problems in high income countries, very little research has gone towards finding cures for them.

Leaders of the world’s largest and richest countries met over the weekend in Ontario, Canada. What did they accomplish? This week on the Wonkcast, I’m joined by two guests: CGD Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Director of Policy Outreach Sarah Jane Staats. We examine the statements released by the two groups—looking specifically at what they have to say about several key policy areas for global development.

Listen to the Wonkcast to hear our conversation. Among other topics, we discuss:

• What President Obama’s G8 announcement on his administration’s development strategy means for the U.S. aid reform agenda.
• The significance of the G20’s release of a set of principles for financial inclusion.
• How the headline issues of financial stability and regulation might affect emerging countries.
• What was said (and wasn’t said) in Toronto on expanding trade, especially for the world’s least developed countries.
• What role an announced G20 Working Group on development might play in the run-up to the next G20 summit this fall in Seoul, South Korea.

Latin America may be quite vulnerable to events in Europe. Beyond the risk that a deep crisis in Europe may result in double dip recession in advanced economies with deleterious global implications, Latin America's trade and financial channels with Europe are large and growing. On the other hand, as in the 1970s, capital flight from advanced economies (especially Europe) could mean more capital flowing into Latin America, offering at least a temporary relief from real sector shocks. The Latin-American Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (CLAAF) met to address the following issues:
• Under what international scenarios will economic and financial stability in Latin America be compromised?
• Could financial systems in the region withstand a crisis in Spain's banking system?
• Is the recovery in the region sustainable or just the result of temporary capital inflows?
• How should the region's policymakers respond to current vulnerabilities? Is now the time to consider capital controls?
• In light of the recent international experience, should the role of central banks in the region be revised, and should financial regulation be reformed?

This week on the Wonkcast, I'm joined by Rachel Nugent, Deputy Director for Global Health here at the Center for Global Development. She is the lead author on a new CGD working group report entitled The Race Against Drug Resistance, which prescribes a global effort to halt and reverse the spread of drug resistant microbes.

In the Wonkcast, Rachel explains that the more people rely on antibiotics and other medicines, the faster disease pathogens adapt and become resistant. In rich countries, a resistant strain of staph now kills thousands per year-- most from hospital-acquired infections. The situation is more dire in the developing world. Rachel tells me that there is only one effective treatment remaining for malaria, and that some strains of tuberculosis are now completely untreatable.

With high deficits across the developed world, aid budgets are tight and likely to remain so. However, a simple change in how the World Bank organizes its lending could free up an extra $7.5 billion for the world’s poorest countries over the next three years. My guest on this Wonkcast is Ben Leo, a research fellow here at the Center for Global Development and the author of a new working paper that sets forth this straightforward and potentially incredibly impactful proposal.

To understand how Ben’s idea would work, it’s necessary to know that the World Bank has two lending arms: the International Development Association (IDA) lends money to very poor countries at highly concessional rates; the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), borrows on international capital markets and re-lends to relatively better-off countries, at somewhat higher rates, leveraging the Bank’s AAA credit rating to offer better terms than those countries could obtain on their own. Some countries, such as India and Vietnam, are so-called “IDA blend” – they get some loans from IDA and some from the IBRD.