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CGD's weekly Global Prosperity Wonkcast, event videos, whiteboard talks, slides, and more.

The Current Debt Crisis and the Possibility of a Banking Crisis in the European Union: Liliana Rojas-Suarez (interview)

Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez was interviewed by CNN en Español on the current debt crisis within Europe. In this interview she states her view that a banking crisis is highly likely within Europe. She notes that, in addition to the recent issues experienced by the French banks, many other European banks are struggling. As opposed to the United States, the problems in Europe started in the public sector and moved to the private sector; the banks, in particular. Also in contrast to the US, the European banks don’t have a full Lender of Last Resort (a function that the European Central Bank is not committed to pursue). Moreover, given the political disagreements within Germany, a TARP like program does not seem probable. In this context, banks’ recapitalization would need to take place with private sector resources, which are not forth coming given the low levels of confidence in European financial systems as the risk of contagion increases. For example, French banks have a large exposure to debt issued by Greece. At this point, if the ECB were to develop a deposit guarantee fund, Germany will have to provide the backing, which at this point looks unlikely.

El banco central Europeo compra bonos de Espana y Italia (CNN en Espanol)

Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez was interviewed by CNN en Español on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent purchases of bonds from Italy and Spain. She notes that the size and duration of the intervention is important in determining its efficacy. Without a clear commitment by the ECB to act as a lender of last resort, the current monetary intervention will do little to resolve deeper economic problems within the European Union. Even more, a sustainable resolution of the crisis involves the restructuring of Italy and Spain’s bad debt in Europe’s peripheral countries.

Impacto de decradación (CNN en Espanol)

Senior fellow Liliana Rojas- Suarez discusses the U.S. credit rating downgrade and its effects. She emphasizes that the fundamental problems behind the 2008 financial crisis – namely the deeply troubled mortgage markets - have not been solved, and that this downgrade, together with the ongoing European crisis, are indicative of an impending long period of very low global growth. Rojas-Suarez predicts that there will be no quick economic recovery for the United States resulting in stagnant growth and unemployment rates.

The Debt Cap Showdown and the Developing World: Liliana Rojas-Suarez

Liliana Rojas-Suarez

The American media is abuzz with stories of doom and gloom as tensions mount over stalled efforts to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. Europe, meanwhile, has its own debt woes, with mounting fears that a default in Greece could spill over into Ireland, Portugal and Spain. So far, however, there has been relatively little discussion about what these twin crises would mean for the 5 billion people living in developing countries. Sadly, those with the least influence over the issue could pay the highest price.

On this week’s Wonkcast, I invite senior CGD fellow and global finance expert Liliana Rojas-Suarez to explain why it’s important to the rest of the world that Europe and the United States put their financial affairs in order. The showdown in the U.S. is especially worrying, Liliana says, because of the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency.

 

Avoiding a Credit Bubble in Latin America (Wonkcast)

CLAAF 2011

For now, the future for Latin America looks bright. Confidence is high throughout the region after a strong rebound from the global financial crisis. But large and possibly volatile inflows of capital could lead to a credit bubble if regulators don’t take steps now to slow the large flood of hot money. In this edition of the Wonkcast I interview three members of the Latin American Shadow Financial Regulatory  Committee (CLAAF), a group prominent South American economists who meet twice yearly to offer advice to the region’s regulators and policymakers. Our focus is the group’s latest statement, which urges unconventional measures for extraordinary times.

Macroprudential Regulation and Developing Countries: Liliana Rojas-Suarez

Liliana Rojas-Suarez

Regulators at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, are hard at work designing regulatory standards to avoid future financial meltdowns like the global financial crisis of 2008. Joining them for two months is Liliana Rojas Suarez, a CGD senior fellow and the founding chair of the Latin American Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee.

I spoke with Liliana just before she left for Basel about macroprudential regulation—an approach that focuses on the systemic risks arising from the interaction among banks and other financial institutions. (Liliana had spoken about this at a recent CGD Research in Progress staff meeting; her slides are a useful adjunct to our Wonkcast discussion.)

Liliana Rojas-Suarez on the European Crisis (CNN en Espanol)

Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez made comments on the sovereign debt auctions held recently by several European governments. She thinks the so-called success of these auctions is relative for two reasons. First, it is important to remember that before this auction took place, the European Central Bank intervened to buy sovereign bonds in order to lower spreads in the market, which at the time were sky-high. Second, an important proportion of these bonds have been bought by local investors. It is, therefore, worrisome that the liquidity that the European Central Bank has injected into a number of European banks might be channeled (at least partly) to the purchase of sovereign bonds. The concern is that in the event of sovereign debt defaults, banking crises would also ensue.

The Global Implications of India's Microcredit Crisis (Event Video)

The largest crisis in the history of microfinance is now unfolding in India. After five years of growth so fast it has been described as “indescribable,” and after a lucrative initial public offering (IPO) by the leading firm, the government of the state of Andhra Pradesh has cracked down. Amid reports of microcredit-linked suicides, the state has urged borrowers to stop repaying, and millions have heeded the call. Bankruptcies of some of the world’s largest microcreditors are now a realistic possibility.

What is the reality of microcredit in India? Is the backlash an engineered campaign to protect a government-run (and World Bank–financed) finance program from private-sector competition? Or has the fast growth in credit ensnared the poor in debt? Some of each?

And what lessons does the crisis hold for actors worldwide, including microfinance institutions and investors ranging from the World Bank to Kiva users? When is microcredit—and investment in it—too much of a good thing?

Five CGD Experts on the Seoul G-20 Summit

G-20 SeoulG-20 leaders gathering in Seoul this week face a full plate of issues, most prominently the effort to stave off beggar-thy-neighbors currency devaluations. This week on the Global Prosperity Wonkcast, we've distilled highlights from a private briefing I organized where five CGD experts shared their views on key issues facing the G-20, and their implications for poor people not represented at the table. Snippets below—listen to the full 30-minute Wonkcast for the rest of the story or scroll to the bottom of this page for full event video. If you'd like a bit of historical background on the G-20 and how it came into its current role, listen to my introductory remarks (they're about 6 minutes long) that give some context for the rest of the discussion.

How the G-8 and G-20 Fared on Development: Liliana Rojas-Suarez & Sarah Jane Staats

Sarah Jane Staats and Liliana Rojas-SuarezLeaders of the world’s largest and richest countries met over the weekend in Ontario, Canada. What did they accomplish? This week on the Wonkcast, I’m joined by two guests: CGD Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Director of Policy Outreach Sarah Jane Staats. We examine the statements released by the two groups—looking specifically at what they have to say about several key policy areas for global development.

Listen to the Wonkcast to hear our conversation. Among other topics, we discuss:

  • What President Obama’s G8 announcement on his administration’s development strategy means for the U.S. aid reform agenda.
  • The significance of the G20’s release of a set of principles for financial inclusion.
  • How the headline issues of financial stability and regulation might affect emerging countries.
  • What was said (and wasn’t said) in Toronto on expanding trade, especially for the world’s least developed countries.
  • What role an announced G20 Working Group on development might play in the run-up to the next G20 summit this fall in Seoul, South Korea.

Does the European Crisis Matter for Latin America? What Is the Appropriate Policy Response? (Event video and audio)

Latin America may be quite vulnerable to events in Europe. Beyond the risk that a deep crisis in Europe may result in double dip recession in advanced economies with deleterious global implications, Latin America's trade and financial channels with Europe are large and growing. On the other hand, as in the 1970s, capital flight from advanced economies (especially Europe) could mean more capital flowing into Latin America, offering at least a temporary relief from real sector shocks. The Latin-American Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (CLAAF) met to address the following issues:
• Under what international scenarios will economic and financial stability in Latin America be compromised?
• Could financial systems in the region withstand a crisis in Spain's banking system?
• Is the recovery in the region sustainable or just the result of temporary capital inflows?
• How should the region's policymakers respond to current vulnerabilities? Is now the time to consider capital controls?
• In light of the recent international experience, should the role of central banks in the region be revised, and should financial regulation be reformed?

Liliana Rojas-Suarez on U.S. Financial Reform (CNN en Espanol)

CGD senior fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez discussed the main differences and hot button issues regarding the proposals of Democratic and Republican Senators on the Financial Regulatory Reform. Four major areas of debate were identified: the consumer protection agency, financial derivates, the roles and limitations of the banks, and the rescue fund.

Liliana Rojas-Suarez interviewed on CNN en Español

CNN en Español interviewed CGD senior fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez on the U.S. financial reform.

Rojas-Suarez expressed concern that the Federal Reserve will only supervise entities that have an asset value of more than $50 billion, but won’t supervise the small entities which usually start banking problems like the recent crisis in the United States. She argued that the only way for the U.S. to achieve financial stabilization is by giving the Federal Reserve the authority to supervise the entire financial system.

The Banking Crisis in Mexico and the U.S. (slidecast)

In this presentation, CGD senior fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez compares the most important features of the Mexico’s banking crisis in the mid-1990s and the current crisis in the United States. The presentation reveals large similarities in the causes of the crises. In particular the root cause of both crises can be found in significant regulatory deficiencies in the context of an expansionary monetary policy. When comparing the resolution processes, key similarities between the two crises, especially with respect to political constraints and indecisive policy reactions are also found.

Access the presentation.

The Banking Crisis in Mexico

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