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Over the last 15 years, development economists have carefully accumulated rigorous evidence about what works and what does not in promoting health in poor countries. While each individual evaluation tests specific questions or sets of questions in specific contexts, the large number of studies now means that it is possible to draw more general conclusions. In addition, randomized evaluations are increasingly being designed to test fundamental questions about how people behave and thus generate lessons that are relevant for the design of different types of programs. In this seminar, Michael Kremer will discuss a new research paper co-authored with Rachel Glennerster, Lessons from Randomized Evaluations for Improving Health in Developing Countries, which summarizes lessons from the growing body of randomized evaluations of health programs in developing countries. The paper finds considerable evidence that consumers do not always invest optimally in health. In particular, consumers underinvest in cost-effective products for prevention and non-acute care of communicable disease and are very sensitive to the price and convenience of these products. This underinvestment does not simply reflect a lack of information of the benefits of preventative health. While this suggests the need for government intervention, many government health systems perform poorly and there is little accountability and few incentives for health care providers. Of the approaches designed to improve accountability, community or nongovernmental monitoring has had mixed results but district-level contracting has been quite successful. Many programs can improve health without excessive reliance on dysfunctional health delivery systems—delivering health products through schools for example, or improving health through water treatment.

Partnership for Growth (PFG) is a new model for the United States to engage with a select group of countries to accelerate and sustain broad-based economic growth. It involves rigorous joint analysis of constraints to growth, the development of joint action plans to address these constraints, and high-level mutual accountability for implementation. One of PFG’s objectives is to engage not just aid but also a range of available tools to unlock new investment. CGD is pleased to host Gayle Smith to present on PFG. Todd Moss will then moderate a conversation with representatives from the U.S. agencies involved in the partnership as well as representatives from the first set of PFG countries, El Salvador, Ghana, Philippines, and Tanzania.

The misadventures of the North seem to go hand-in-hand with a boom in emerging markets, particularly in Latin America. Spain is looking down a cliff and France threatens to get rid of the Teutonic fiscal belt, increasing angst and uncertainty in the North. In contrast, Latin American economies are trying but failing to prevent sizable currency appreciation, and a surge of credit flows. Given this scenario, is Latin America hopelessly, and counterproductively, fighting a bonanza that is here to stay, given that the North is mired in stubborn recession; or is the fight a worthy quest, necessary in order to prevent a painful replay of a boom-bust cycle? In this latter regard, what policies would be most effective under current conditions? Are macroprudential regulations helpful instruments to keep these economies on track? Does Basel III offer a reliable guide for regulators, or is it in need of major overhaul?

Industrial policy—an active government role in shaping the direction of the economy—is often disdained by Western-trained economists but frequently embraced by Asian policymakers. Is it the path to development success or a slippery slope that leads to development failure? “New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development and Policy” by World Bank chief economist Justin Lin and contributing authors provides a timely opportunity to review the evidence. Are systemic reforms to strengthen the business climate enough? How can policymakers guard against the well-known risks of favoring specific sectors or firms? Is there such a thing as a "New Industrial Policy" and can it provide useful guidelines for developing countries? This debate is of particular interest for low-income countries in Africa and elsewhere and the advice provided by their development partners.

John Githongo, an advocate for transparency and good governance, is well-known for his work as the anti-corruption czar in Kenya, where in 2003 he uncovered a $1 billion scheme involving some of the country’s top ministers. His probing incited a backlash that forced him to flee the country for fear of his life, taking up a fellowship at Oxford where he released a report documenting government graft. Since then, Githongo has devoted his efforts to eliminating corruption and injustice in Kenya and across Africa. His lecture focuses on what outsiders—the high-income countries and emerging powers—can do to help foster democracy and poverty reduction in the developing world.

José Antonio Ocampo presented his vision for the future of the World Bank at an event organized by CGD and Washington Post Live.

In this interview Liliana Rojas-Suarez argues that for a true and lasting solution to the Greek crisis to occur, a deeper restructuring of sovereign debt is needed (one that is based on the country's capacity to repay, and not on arbitrarily-determined goals for debt ratios; i.e. 120% debt/GPP by 2020) . Since the likelihood of key Eurozone members (especially Germany) to agree on further debt restructurings (including ECB’s holdings of Greek debt) is very low, the most likely scenario is still one where Greece leaves the Eurozone. This would allow for a depreciation of the domestic currency to boost competitiveness. In this scenario, it is essential a re-design of the IMF program to include the avoidance of a banking crisis (which could occur if banks' borrowers, earning' income  denominated in a depreciated currency, are not able to make good on  payments on Euro-denominated loans).            

Program-for-Results (PforR), a new World Bank lending instrument, is one of several innovative approaches to development aid that focus on measurable development outcomes. Proponents argue that PforR will help strengthen institutions, build capacity, and enhance partnerships. Critics contend it may bypass hard-won social and environmental safeguards. This event will include an overview of the approach followed by a panel discussion with aid experts with a variety of perspectives.