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David Wheeler, our lead researcher on climate and development, decided recently to retire from CGD, though he will continue to be active in CGD’s intellectual life as our first Senior Fellow Emeritus. Since joining CGD in 2006, David has published more than 20 working papers and launched two path-breaking global databases, Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA), which provides data on the CO2 emissions of more than 50,000 powerplants worldwide, and Forest Monitoring for Action (FORMA), which uses satellite data to provide rapid, high-resolution tracking of tropical deforestation.

We discuss some surprising findings from David’s newly released analysis (Forest Clearing in the Pantropics:  December 2005-August 2011) of the FORMA data. There is both good news and bad news. Total forest clearing has dropped during the global recession, but with enormous variation within countries and across regions, he says. For example, there have been large declines in the rate of forest clearing in Brazil, Bolivia, Indonesia, and Paraguay but large increases in Myanmar, Malaysia, Peru, and Venezuela.  A companion paper (Economic Dynamics and Forest Clearing) finds that economic factors such as market prices, exchange rates, and interest rates all influence forest clearing.  The availability of communications infrastructure such as mobile phones, zoning, rainfall and terrain slope also play a role.

Global health funders have historically focused their aid on countries with the lowest per capita incomes, on the assumption that that’s where most of world’s poor people live.  In recent years, however, many large developing countries achieved rapid growth, lifting them into the ranks of the so-called middle-income countries, or MICs, even though they are still home to hundreds of millions of very poor people.  Andy Sumner has called the poor people in the MICs a “new bottom billion”, as distinct from the bottom billion in poor and fragile states that Paul Collier wrote about in a popular 2007 book.

In this week’s Wonkcast, I ask Amanda Glassman, a CGD research fellow and director of our global health policy program, how global health funders should respond to the emergence of the new bottom billion. Should money that now goes to the world’s poorest countries be reallocated to reach poor people who happen to live in the new MICs? Are there other ways that the global community can help? Amanda’s answers draw on the findings of a new working paper she wrote jointly with Sumner and Denizhan Duran, and an accompanying policy brief. 

U.S. - Pakistan relations, troubled in the best of times, have been unusually rocky of late. A recent cover story in The Atlantic dubbed Pakistan the “Ally from Hell.” CGD’s Study Group on the U.S. Development Strategy in Pakistan argues that the strong U.S. interest in a stable, prosperous Pakistan makes savvy U.S. support for development there more important than ever. In this week’s wonkcast, post-doctoral research fellow Milan Vaishnav and policy analyst Danny Cutherell discuss the recent upsets in U.S.-Pakistan relations and offer practical suggestions, drawn from the CGD Study Group’s report and a recent open letter from CGD president Nancy Birdsall to deputy secretary of state Thomas Nides, which focuses on U.S. support for private sector growth in Pakistan.

I recently interviewed Owen Barder, CGD senior fellow and director for Europe, shortly after his return from the Fourth High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan, South Korea. Did the December forum, with some 3,000 participants from around the world, matter to development?

We begin our interview by discussing the city of Busan itself, and South Korea’s dramatic transformation from aid recipient to donor. Busan is now a bustling city and the 5th largest port in the world. We then consider four conference outcomes that Owen identified in a blog post http://www.owen.org/blog/5131 soon after the conference: increased participation by emerging donors; a new deal for fragile states; significant progress on transparency, including a U.S. decision to join the International Aid Transparency Initiative (IATI); and significant changes in the international governance of the aid system.

Most low-income countries (LICs) recovered swiftly from the 2008-9 global crisis and have grown strongly since early 2010. But progress in rebuilding macroeconomic buffers has been slow, and the LICs are now less well prepared to deal with external shocks than they were before the crisis. At a time when the risks to the global outlook are intensifying, a new IMF study finds that many LICs would struggle to cope with a renewed global downturn. In a second report, the IMF and World Bank explore the role contingent financial instruments—such as commodity hedging, contingent debt, and insurance—could play to help LICs manage global volatility. IMF staff will present the key findings of these studies, highlighting the policy implications for LICs and the international community, with comments by expert discussants to follow.

Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez was interviewed by CNN en Español on dealing with the current banking problems in Europe. With the escalation of the banking problems, some countries, such as Greece, need a comprehensive restructuring of their banking systems, while many others need a TARP-like program to support re-capitalizations. As the crisis keeps progressing, liquidity support from the European Central Bank (ECB) is proving insufficient. Assistance from the IMF is pivotal to support not only Europe but also the rest of the world should a full-fledged crisis emerge in Europe. The situation is complicated by the fact that the IMF is in need of greater funds and their largest stake holder, the United States, is not in a position to offer support due to their own political challenges.

Join us in honoring Geeta Rao Gupta, winner of the 2011 Commitment to Development Award, sponsored by the Center for Global Development (CGD) and Foreign Policy Magazine. Bestowed annually since 2003, the Award honors an individual or organization that has made a significant contribution to changing attitudes and policies towards the developing world. Geeta Rao Gupta, former president of the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW), has provided strong leadership in ensuring a steady flow of research evidence about how to translate advocacy for women in the developing world into policy priorities and practical programs. Gender would not have such a fundamental role in development if not for the work that Geeta and her predecessors and successors have championed at ICRW.

Lawrence Macdonald, vice president for communications and policy outreach at the Center for Global Development, explains how CGD helped make $1 trillion available to developing countries after the global financial crisis. In the spring of 2009, the participation of developing countries in the global stimulus was made possible at the G-20 summit. But how much money was needed for the most vulnerable countries and where would it come from? Nancy Birdsall, president of CGD, prepared a note stating that they would need access to 1 trillion dollars to cope with the effects of the crisis. Birdsall then put together a blueprint for making the resources available. By channeling the plan to the right people and testifying in front of Congress, CGD helped to unlock the $1 trillion and make it possible for the IMF and World Bank to help vulnerable countries cope with the crisis.