Ideas to Action:

Independent research for global prosperity

Publications

 

Global Warming and Agriculture: New Country Estimates Show Developing Countries Face Declines in Agriculture Productivity

9/17/07
William Cline

This CGD Brief, based on Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country, by senior fellow William Cline, explores the implications of global warming for world agriculture, with special attention to China, India, Brazil, and the poor countries of the tropical belt in Africa and Latin America. The brief shows that the long-term effects on world agriculture will be substantially negative: India could see a drop in agricultural productivity of 30 to 40 percent; China's south central region would be in jeopardy; and the United States may see reductions of 25 to 35 percent in the southeast and the southwestern plains.

Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country

9/12/07
William Cline

In this new book, Bill Cline, a joint senior fellow at CGD and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, provides the first ever estimates of the impact on agriculture by country, with a particular focus on the social and economic implications in China, India, Brazil, and the poor countries of the tropical belt in Africa and Latin America. His study shows that the long-term negative effects on world agriculture will be severe, and that developing countries will suffer first and worst.

Global Trade, Jobs and Labor Standards

6/15/06

Trade has the potential to raise incomes worldwide. But trade creates losers as well as winners. This Rich World, Poor World brief provides an accessible introduction to the impact of global trade on U.S. jobs and suggests policies that the U.S. can pursue to maximize the gains and minimize the losses. Learn more about Rich World, Poor World: A Guide to Global Development

Global Trade, the United States, and Developing Countries

6/15/06

The collapse of the Doha trade talks puts at risk one of the rich world's most important commitments to developing countries: to reform policies that make it harder for poor countries to participate in global commerce. Trade has the potential to be a significant force for reducing global poverty by spurring economic growth, creating jobs, reducing prices and helping countries acquire new technologies. Global Trade and Development, a Center for Global Development Rich World, Poor World brief, explains how the U.S. engages in global trade and how trade affects development and global poverty. Learn more about Rich World, Poor World: A Guide to Global Development

The U.S. External Deficit and the Developing Countries--Working Paper 86

3/20/06

With foreign investment in the U.S. increasingly in the spotlight, this working paper by William Cline explores the U.S. external deficit and the fact that the U.S. relies on foreign lending to finance its trade deficit. Cline emphasizes the dangers of a hard landing for the U.S., and why this would especially hurt developing countries that depend on an expanding U.S. economy and are vulnerable to spikes in interest rates. The paper is based on a chapter in Cline’s recent book, The U.S. as a Debtor Nation.

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Achieving a Grand Bargain in the Doha Round

12/12/05

Senior Fellow William R. Cline outlines a "grand bargain" that negotiators can strike at the upcoming "Doha Development Round" that would ahieve increased trade liberalization.

The United States as a Debtor Nation

9/19/05
William Cline

How is America's debt of 22% of GDP and its $670 billion trade deficit sustainable? What are the challenges to the rest of the world as the US’ fiscal accounts and exchange rates adjust to correct this imbalance? In this important new book, CGD/IIE Senior Fellow William R. Cline argues that without a significant fiscal adjustment, the growing US foreign debt will put the US economy—as well as the world economy and developing nations—at risk. The National Journal calls the book "the most thorough and up-to-date look at the issue."

The Dollar and Development - Working Paper 64

8/10/05
Richard Sabot

In this posthumously published working paper, Dick Sabot argues that the U.S. external deficit is putting at risk the welfare of poor people in developing countries. This accessible paper draws on a forthcoming book, The U.S. as a Debtor Nation, by William Cline, and has been updated to include Cline's latest results.

Trade Policy and Global Poverty

6/1/04
William Cline

Trade Policy and Global Poverty by William Cline examines how changes in trade policies in the United States and other industrial countries could help reduce poverty in developing countries. Cline first reviews the extent of global poverty and its relationship to trade and growth. He then examines the key components of these relationships to identify lines of trade policy action that could help reduce global poverty.

Private Sector Involvement in Financial Crisis Resolution: Definition, Measurement, and Implementation - Working Paper 18

12/1/02

Public policy on financial crises in emerging markets has implicitly been grounded in economic theory calling for lender-of-last-resort intervention when the country is solvent, and on theory recognizing that reputational damage is the quasi-collateral enabling lending to sovereigns with no physical collateral. The call for Private Sector Involvement — PSI — in the financing of crisis resolution has appropriately arisen from the desire for fairness as well as for successful outcomes. This paper identifies an array of PSI modalities and argues that in each crisis case the most voluntary type consistent with the circumstances should be chosen, to speed return to market access.

Financial Crises and Poverty in Emerging Market Economies - Working Paper 8

6/1/02
William Cline

This study examines the impact of the principal financial crises in emerging markets in recent years on the incidence of poverty in the countries in question. The growth impact is first identified by comparing average per capita growth in the two years prior to the crisis to that in the crisis year and the following year. The poverty impact is then measured by applying the elasticity of poverty with respect to growth. Alternative estimates consider results of surveys in the relevant periods, where available.