The econometric quest for evidence on aid effectiveness continues. Practitioners in the $80 billion-a-year aid enterprise care about their work and hanker for objective evidence that they are helping. In this working paper, CGD research fellow David Roodman argues that there is a clear aid-growth relationship, but instead of being positive and running causally from aid to growth, it is negative and runs from growth to aid--aid, that is, as it is usually measured: as a fraction of GDP. Roughly speaking (and not surprisingly!), when GDP goes up, aid/GDP goes down. Roodman argues that choices that economists commonly make in running the numbers often flip the apparent sign and direction of the aid-growth link, making it appear that aid is raising growth.
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