CGD’s work on climate change examines current and future impacts on developing countries, identifies how rich countries can help developing countries become more climate resilient, seeks policy mechanisms to create low-carbon economies in rich and developing countries, and gathers and discloses emissions-related data to inform the policy dialogue and boost incentives for steep cuts in the emissions of heat-trapping gases.
CGD’s work on climate change examines current and future impacts on developing countries, identifies how rich countries can help developing countries become more climate resilient, seeks policy mechanisms to create low-carbon economies in rich and developing countries, and gathers and discloses emissions-related data to inform the policy dialogue and boost incentives for steep cuts in the emissions of heat-trapping gases.
CGD senior fellow David Wheeler, an internationally recognized expert on public information disclosure and environmental regulation, leads CGD’s climate work. His paper, Another Inconvenient Truth: A Carbon-Intensive South Faces Environmental Disaster, No Matter What the North Does, argues that while rich countries are responsible for most of the human-generated greenhouse gasses currently in the atmosphere, rapidly growing emissions in the developing world must also be curtailed soon to avoid climate catastrophe. High-income countries must help developing countries to achieve rapid, sustained economic growth and poverty reduction while at the same time shifting quickly to a low-carbon economy—or both parties are sunk. Wheeler’s White House and the World brief, Global Warming: An Opportunity for Greatness describes how the United States can lead such an effort.
Reaching a Global Deal
A global deal on climate change will only be possible if the needs of developing countries are adequately addressed. Ahead of the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Conference, CGD president Nancy Birdsall and co-author Jan von der Goltz surveyed members of the international development community with a special interest in climate change on they key elements of such a deal. Their findings, It's One Climate Policy World Out There--Almost , will be increasingly relevant as the global community attempts to find a way forward following Copenhagen. Also relevant to this debate: Birdsall’s paper (with Arvind Subramanian) Energy Needs and Efficiency, Not Emissions: Re-framing the Climate Change Narrative
Using Public Information to Reduce Carbon Emissions
Regulatory approaches to reducing emissions are politically difficult: they face strong opposition from fossil fuel producers and other interests that benefit in the short term from the status quo. Yet millions of concerned global citizens are ready now to help promote climate-friendly products and technologies, acting as consumers, investors, shareholders, managers, and workers. Their actions can have a meaningful impact only with access to timely, accurate information about the implications of the choices they face. CGD is creating systems such as those below to provide a wide array of stakeholders with the information they need to take action now to reduce emissions.
- Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA): Launched in 2007, this online database presents through Google Maps and Google Earth the best available estimates of CO2 emissions for 50,000 power plants around the world and the identities of the 4,000 firms that own them. Power generation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for about one quarter of emissions worldwide, and is highly concentrated, making it potentially easier to address than more diffuse sources.
- Forest Monitoring for Action (FORMA): Forest Monitoring for Action (FORMA) uses freely available satellite data to generate rapidly updated online maps of tropical deforestation. Currently available for Indonesia from 2000 to the present with monthly time-lapse images since the end of 2005, these maps show where—and when—deforestation activity has occurred, providing useful information for local and national forest conservation programs and for international efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions by paying to keep forests intact.
Integrating Climate Change into Development Assistance
Two new imperatives will complicate development efforts: limiting carbon emissions and adapting to rising sea levels and destructive weather events. Without technical and financial assistance, most poor countries are unlikely to overcome these challenges. CGD is identifying cost-effective policies to promote low-carbon development, tracking the integration of climate change into development assistance, and comparing the performance of assistance providers. Relevant CGD publications include Desert Power: The Economics of Solar Thermal Electricity for Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East and Crossroads at Mmamabula: Will the World Bank Choose the Clean Energy Path?
Assessing Impacts on Developing Countries
The Center’s climate work builds upon research by William Cline, a joint senior fellow at the Center for Global Development and the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Cline’s 2007 book, Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country provided the first worldwide, country-level estimates of the agricultural impact of climate change through 2080. His findings starkly reveal the stakes for developing countries: a 45 percent reduction in agricultural productivity in India and similar losses in much of sub-Saharan Africa. The implications of these findings for global stability—not to mention development—highlight the need to rapidly reduce carbon emissions while also preparing for the inevitable effects of past emissions.
More recently, a 2009 working paper by Wheeler and co-authors assessed the effects of storm surges in developing countries, which are expected to increase substantially due to higher sea levels and larger storms driven by higher temperatures and increased moisture in the atmosphere.
At the same time, efforts to reduce emissions may also pose substantial risks for developing countries if they are implemented in ways that undermine economic growth. Arvind Subramanian, a joint senior fellow at CGD and the Peterson Institute, warns against such risks and outlines ways to avoid them in a pair of papers, Can Global De-Carbonization Inhibit Developing-Country Industrialization? and Reconciling Climate Change and Trade Policy
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The authors address several questions relevant to international discussion about climate adaptation: How will climate change alter the incidence of extreme weather events, and how will their impact be distributed geographically? How will future socioeconomic development, notably an increased focus on education and empowerment for women and girls, affect the vulnerability of affected communities? And, of primary interest to negotiators and donors, how much would it cost to neutralize the threat of additional losses in this context?
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As the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting convenes this month in Copenhagen, Denmark, intellectual property (IP) rights remain a highly contentious issue that threatens the long-term prospects of these negotiations. This note describes an approach that would facilitate the uptake of clean technologies, preserve incentives for privately financed innovation, and allow the Parties to address and move past the issue of IP rights in the UNFCCC negotiations.
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With the Copenhagen climate talks finally underway, a CGD survey of 500 development and climate aficionados in 88 countries finds unexpected agreement about what should be done—and important differences between respondents from developed and developing countries about how an agreement should be financed and managed. Jan von der Goltz and CGD president Nancy Birdsall examine the survey results to shed light on some of the ingredients of a successful climate agreement.
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In this paper, we introduce FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action), a prototype system for monitoring real-time deforestation from publicly available satellite data at a resolution of one square kilometer. Maps of the data showing probable areas of deforestation will be available on Google Earth and Google Maps, allowing open, public, on-the-ground verification of the results. The system is a model of a transparent, credible, and frequently updated source to aid and measure the success of forest conservation efforts.
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The authors suggest a new approach assessing carbon taxes on imports to address the concerns from high-income countries about the effect of taxes on competition without damaging trade from developing countries.
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In this paper Arvind Subramanian and co-authors investigate the differential effects of cooperatitve policy action on climate change and find that one size doesn't fit all. Policy instruments should distinguish between low- and high-carbon countries to avoid serious trade consequences.
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The paper proposes a new narrative on climate equity that emphasize basic energy needs and the equality of access to energy opportunities rather than emissions. It advocates abandoning the setting of emissions targets and instead developing a framework where all countries contribute to maximizing technology creation and diffusion.
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As temperatures rise this century, massive tropical storm surges and growing populations may collide in disasters of unprecedented size. CGD senior fellow David Wheeler and co-authors explore the implications for 84 developing countries, providing new data for 577 cyclone-vulnerable coastal cities with populations greater than 100,000. Bottom line: carefully targeted international assistance will be essential to protect population centers.
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What do developing countries want from global climate negotiations? A new CGD working paper by Jan von der Goltz outlines the negotiating stances of the developing world’s major emitters ahead of December talks in Copenhagen. It shows that developing countries have floated compromises on key issues including burden sharing, monitoring, and implementation; an annex describes how developing countries are already acting to limit the growth of their emissions.
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AND A RELATED BLOG POST
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This CGD Brief, based on the book Africa's Private Sector by Vijaya Ramachandran, Alan Gelb, and Manju Kedia Shah, shows how investing in infrastructure and improving access to education can help bring about a broad-based business class in Africa.
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The White House and the World: A Global Development Agenda for the Next U.S. President shows how modest changes in U.S. policies could greatly improve the lives of poor people in developing countries, thus fostering greater stability, security, and prosperity globally and at home. Center for Global Development experts offer fresh perspectives and practical advice on trade policy, migration, foreign aid, climate change and more. In an introductory essay, CGD President Nancy Birdsall explains why and how the next U.S. president must lead in the creation of a better, safer world.
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While the threat of global warming is increasingly accepted, little attention has been paid to the likely impact at the country level, especially in the developing world. In this new book, Bill Cline, a joint senior fellow at CGD and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, provides the first ever estimates of the impact on agriculture by country, with a particular focus on the social and economic implications in China, India, Brazil, and the poor countries of the tropical belt in Africa and Latin America. His study shows that the long-term negative effects on world agriculture will be severe, and that developing countries will suffer first and worst.
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The authors address several questions relevant to international discussion about climate adaptation: How will climate change alter the incidence of extreme weather events, and how will their impact be distributed geographically? How will future socioeconomic development, notably an increased focus on education and empowerment for women and girls, affect the vulnerability of affected communities? And, of primary interest to negotiators and donors, how much would it cost to neutralize the threat of additional losses in this context?
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Many poor countries, especially in Africa, will miss the MDGs by a large margin. But neither African inaction nor a lack of aid will necessarily be the reason. Instead, responsibility for near-certain ‘failure’ lies with the overly-ambitious goals themselves and unrealistic expectations placed on aid. While the MDGs may have galvanized activists and encouraged bigger aid budgets, over-reaching brings risks as well. Promising too much leads to disillusionment and can erode the constituency for long-term engagement with the developing world.
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Aid and trade are over-rated when it comes to helping reduce poverty, according to this provocative Foreign Affairs article by Nancy Birdsall, Dani Rodrik, and Arvind Subramanian. Neglected issues, such as giving poor nations more space for policy making, financing R&D for vaccines and other new technology, and easing restrictions on migrant labor, are potentially more important, they argue.
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Director of the Center for Public Leadership at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, editor-at-large at U.S. News & World Report, and a senior political analyst for CNN, David Gergen joined CGD president Nancy Birdsall, and CGD senior fellows who authored essays in our recent book, The White House and the World: A Global Development Agenda for the Next U.S. President, for a lively discussion of the prospects for improved U.S. development policy under President Barack Obama.
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As temperatures rise this century, massive tropical storm surges and growing populations may collide in disasters of unprecedented size. CGD senior fellow David Wheeler and co-authors explore the implications for 84 developing countries, providing new data for 577 cyclone-vulnerable coastal cities with populations greater than 100,000. Bottom line: carefully targeted international assistance will be essential to protect population centers.
ACCESS THE WORKING PAPER AND DATA
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The authors suggest a new approach assessing carbon taxes on imports to address the concerns from high-income countries about the effect of taxes on competition without damaging trade from developing countries.
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Senior fellow David Wheeler and Kevin Ummel argue for rapid, very large-scale deployment of existing solar thermal technology. Using maps of solar radiation and project finance calculations, they show that with modest subsidies solar power generated in North Africa and the Middle East could meet the needs of 35 million Europeans by 2020. At that point, solar power would be cheaper than fossil fuels and future projects would no longer require subsidies.
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The paper proposes a new narrative on climate equity that emphasize basic energy needs and the equality of access to energy opportunities rather than emissions. It advocates abandoning the setting of emissions targets and instead developing a framework where all countries contribute to maximizing technology creation and diffusion.
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Nancy Birdsall, President An internationally recognized expert on the impact of rich-country policies on poor people in developing countries, Nancy Birdsall is the author, co-author, or editor of more than a dozen books and over 100 articles in scholarly journals and monographs, published in English and Spanish. Her most recent book is Cash on Delivery: A New Approach to Foreign Aid.
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William R. Cline, Senior Fellow William R. Cline is a senior fellow jointly at the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Center for Global Development. His research focuses on finance, capital flows, trade and development; currently he is investigating the differential impact of global warming on agriculture in rich and developing countries.
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David Roodman, Research Fellow David Roodman has been architect and project manager of the Commitment to Development Index since the project's inception in 2002. He is writing a book on microfinance.
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Arvind Subramanian, Senior Fellow Arvind Subramanian, an Indian national, is a senior fellow at CGD with a joint appointment at the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics and is also a senior research professor at Johns Hopkins University. Prior to his joint appointment with CGD and PIIE, he was assistant director in the research department of the International Monetary Fund. He obtained his undergraduate degree from St. Stephens College, Delhi, his MBA from the Indian Institute of Management at Ahmedabad, India, and his M.Phil. and D.Phil. from the University of Oxford, UK.
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David Wheeler, Senior Fellow David Wheeler leads CGD's work on climate change, which includes assessing the stakes for developing countries, integrating climate change into development assistance, and using public information disclosure to reduce emissions. He is the architect two Web-based carbon monitoring databases, one for all power plants in the world and one for tropical forests.
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The Economics of Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events in Developing Countries - Working Paper 199
- Jan 11, 2010
The authors address several questions relevant to international discussion about climate adaptation: How will climate change alter the incidence of extreme weather events, and how will their impact be distributed geographically? How will future socioeconomic development, notably an increased focus on education and empowerment for women and girls, affect the vulnerability of affected communities? And, of primary interest to negotiators and donors, how much would it cost to neutralize the threat of additional losses in this context?
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Intellectual Property Rights and Climate Change: Principles for Innovation and Access to Low-Carbon Technology
- Dec 11, 2009
As the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting convenes this month in Copenhagen, Denmark, intellectual property (IP) rights remain a highly contentious issue that threatens the long-term prospects of these negotiations. This note describes an approach that would facilitate the uptake of clean technologies, preserve incentives for privately financed innovation, and allow the Parties to address and move past the issue of IP rights in the UNFCCC negotiations.
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It's One Climate Policy World Out There--Almost - Working Paper 195
- Dec 7, 2009
With the Copenhagen climate talks finally underway, a CGD survey of 500 development and climate aficionados in 88 countries finds unexpected agreement about what should be done—and important differences between respondents from developed and developing countries about how an agreement should be financed and managed. Jan von der Goltz and CGD president Nancy Birdsall examine the survey results to shed light on some of the ingredients of a successful climate agreement.
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Climate Change and the Future Impacts of Storm-Surge Disasters in Developing Countries - Working Paper 182
- Sep 24, 2009
As temperatures rise this century, massive tropical storm surges and growing populations may collide in disasters of unprecedented size. CGD senior fellow David Wheeler and co-authors explore the implications for 84 developing countries, providing new data for 577 cyclone-vulnerable coastal cities with populations greater than 100,000. Bottom line: carefully targeted international assistance will be essential to protect population centers.
ACCESS THE WORKING PAPER AND DATA
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Climate Change Negotiating Positions of Major Developing Country Emitters - Working Paper 177
- Aug 10, 2009
What do developing countries want from global climate negotiations? A new CGD working paper by Jan von der Goltz outlines the negotiating stances of the developing world’s major emitters ahead of December talks in Copenhagen. It shows that developing countries have floated compromises on key issues including burden sharing, monitoring, and implementation; an annex describes how developing countries are already acting to limit the growth of their emissions.
ACCESS THE WORKING PAPER
AND A RELATED BLOG POST
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Aid and trade are over-rated when it comes to helping reduce poverty, according to this provocative Foreign Affairs article by Nancy Birdsall, Dani Rodrik, and Arvind Subramanian. Neglected issues, such as giving poor nations more space for policy making, financing R&D for vaccines and other new technology, and easing restrictions on migrant labor, are potentially more important, they argue.
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