Millennium Development Hole is Evaluation Gap

An editorial in today's issue of Nature takes aim at the development establishment - and fires. "The political commitment to helping the developing world is failing to deliver on its promises," according to Millennium Development Holes (subscription required). "The problem is made worse by the questionable evaluation of progress."

Excoriating development agencies for prettying-up defective data on aggregate health and other MDG-related indicators for "pseudo-scientific" estimates of progress since 1990, the commentary then goes for the jugular:

Indeed, the lack of data makes it impossible not only to track progress, but also to assess the effectiveness of measures taken. Has the existence of the MDGs changed pre-existing trends? Are bednets helping to control malaria? Are improvements in Asia down to the MDGs or simply economic growth? Currently, it's impossible to tell. Meanwhile, spurious claims of achievement are promoted.

The way forward, Nature suggests, is in more, better and independent evaluations:

Funding the scientific evaluation of interventions would pay dividends in enabling rigorous project management. But although billions of dollars are now flowing into aid and disease control, researchers complain that they struggle to get even tiny funds for evidence-based research to assess which interventions work. "If I want 10 tons of DDT it's no problem; if I want $10,000 to see if the 10 tons made any difference, forget it," says one malaria researcher.

It is important to take action towards the goals rather than use the lack of reliable information as an excuse for inaction. But investment in an evidence-based approach to aid interventions, assessed independently of the UN, is also essential. Otherwise, in 2015, the MDGs could be buried in history's graveyard alongside other well-intentioned but failed development efforts.

Interesting in its own right, this unfavorable assessment of the international community's ability to measure progress and learn from experience carries an implicit warning. As the clock ticks toward the 2015 MDG deadline, such critiques can only grow louder and more potent.