Yemen and the MCA: Performance- or Politically-based Decisionmaking?

On October 26, just 5 days before it was scheduled to sign a $20 million Threshold Program agreement with Yemen, the Millennium Challenge Corporation decided to hold off while it "undertakes a review to determine the country’s future status with MCC." Personally, I think it is the right outcome (see my earlier blogs). The problem, however, lies in the tangled performance-based, questionably politically-based decision path it took to get there.
In the case of Yemen, the decision to select it as Threshold eligible in the first place was borderline based on its performance -- passing 8 of 16 indicators. Declining performance in FY05 (failing 9 of 16 indicators) and FY06 (failing 14 of 16), however, justified the decision to suspend Yemen's eligibility. The next decision -- to reinstate Yemen's eligibility and move quickly to approve a Threshold Program -- was premature. It was based on impressive actions taken by Yemen but not supported by the FY07 performance indicators -- Yemen failed 13 of the 16 indicators, raising questions (including from Congress) whether the decision was motivated more by politics than measurable performance. Why not wait until the FY08 indicator run was done to see if Yemen's performance improved before taking these decisions? And now, the latest decision to suspend signing of the already approved Threshold Program which appears to be linked to foreign policy pressures. Good thing the FY08 indicators, when they are released, will support continued poor performance by Yemen -- failing 12 of 17 indicators.
To maintain both the integrity and the innovative nature of the MCA program, decisions -- to select, to suspend, and to reinstate -- need to stick to the performance indicator track record