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Multiple crises in the Latin American past, including severe banking crises, have been accompanied by sharp and persistent devaluations. This time around, the impressively large currency depreciations (over 50 percent in some countries) resulting from the ongoing commodity price shock and volatile international capital markets have resulted in contraction in output growth (and even recession in Brazil), but no financial crisis.
Why not? And can Latin America muddle through this episode of adverse international conditions and avoid the severe financial crises that distinguished the region in the 1980s and 1990s? Or will cumulative shocks eventually expose domestic financial vulnerabilities and cause severe crises to ensue?
In a short report accompanying the event, CLAAF members will seek to answer these questions, as well as:
Will an eventual increase in the Fed’s rates be the straw that breaks the camel's back in the region or will the expected series of small Fed rate hikes calm markets and induce a renewal of inflows to Latin America?
Increased flexibility in exchange rates has certainly helped absorb external shocks in the region. But, as most Latin American countries lack strong institutional quality, has this policy unintentionally resulted in a false sense of security and fostered postponement of needed reforms in other key areas?
Is now the time for tight monetary/fiscal policies even if they are pro-cyclical?
Guillermo Calvo, Professor, Columbia University; former Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank Carmen Reinhart, Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School Liliana Rojas-Suarez, President, CLAAF and Senior Fellow and Director, Latin America Initiative, Center for Global Development Laura Alfaro, Professor, Harvard Business School; former Minister of National Planning and Economic Policy, Costa Rica Pedro Carvalho de Mello, Professor, Universidade de Sao Paulo; former Commissioner, Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios, Brazil Roque Fernandez, Professor, Universidad del CEMA; former Minister of Finance, Argentina Pablo Guidotti Dean and Professor, School of Government, Universidad Torcuato di Tella; Former Vice-Minister of Finance, Argentina Enrique Mendoza, Presidential Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania and Director of Penn Institute for Economic Research Guillermo Perry, Non-resident fellow, Center for Global Development; Professor, Universidad de los Andes; Former Minister of Finance, Colombia Ernesto Talvi, Director of the Brookings-CERES Economic and Social Policy in Latin America Initiative
Since the early 2000s, Latin America has become increasingly integrated with the global economy, liberalizing trade and opening its capital account. These initiatives were prompted by the assumption that advanced economies would not impose barriers to the cross-border movement of goods and services. But today, a rising wave of protectionism not seen since the Great Depression challenges this assumption.
With this new reality as the backdrop, the Latin American Committee on Macroeconomic and Financial Issues (CLAAF) will be meeting in Washington, DC to discuss how to tackle these emerging global economic challenges. Members of this committee include former finance ministers, former central bank governors, and other high-level economic officials and academics from across Latin America.
Some of the world’s poorest countries run the risk of building up a debt pile too high for their economies to support, according to the latest IMF report. The Center for Global Development will host the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to discuss the causes for the debt build up and possible ways forward at the launch of Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) – 2018. This is the fourth annual report in a series by the IMF that looks at trends and socioeconomic indicators of LIDCs.
Former Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf will join the Center for Global Development's Board member Tony Fratto to discuss her experience as president and lessons learned from Liberia’s relationship with development partners.
Join the Center for Global Development for a conversation with New York Times' columnist Nicholas Kristof. Fresh from a reporting trip to the Central African Republic with the winner of CGD’s and the New York Times’ “Win a Trip” contest, Kristof will discuss new and emerging humanitarian and global development challenges, the importance of journalism, and how to create and support the next generation of development journalists and practitioners. Too often, “development” is an abstract, faceless concept. At its best, journalism can bridge this gap and reveal the many millions affected by global poverty and inequality. In his columns, Nicholas Kristof puts a human lens on the stories of those who benefit from and work in global development, and the challenges they face.
Many organizations working on development champion women’s empowerment and equality as a core goal. But behind the scenes, how are these organizations living these values and what can they do better? On March 6, the Center for Global Development and Devex will host an event highlighting practical ways organizations can live up to their promises for a gender-equal workplace.
The Center for Global Development and Oxfam are hosting a discussion on the Politics of Pro-Worker Reforms with author Alice Evans. Alice will present her paper on the drivers of pro-worker reforms in Vietnam, including how rich countries can use the tools of trade and aid to support workers’ rights, social activism, and decent pay. Specifically, she examines the relative roles of the Better Work program and US demands for labor reform during negotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership in encouraging Vietnamese labor market reforms. The paper can be found here, and a blog summary here.
In collaboration with the Salud Mesoamerica Initiative (SMI), CGD is pleased to invite you to a two-day conference highlighting lessons learned from SMI and how SMI’s experience can inform other programs in the future of healthcare. CGD has worked on results-based financing for years. From analyzing performance-based incentives to exploring cash on delivery aid to improving value for money for the Global Fund and its partners, we have been examining ways to maximize the impact of funding on health outcomes. We now have rigorous evaluations and evidence from SMI, a large-scale results-based funding program. This model public-private partnership allocates funding at the national level based on measurable improvements in coverage and quality of reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child healthcare. It has brought together international donors, a development bank, regional bodies, national governments, and local stakeholders in an innovative partnership that rewards for health system strengthening and increased equity.