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Multiple crises in the Latin American past, including severe banking crises, have been accompanied by sharp and persistent devaluations. This time around, the impressively large currency depreciations (over 50 percent in some countries) resulting from the ongoing commodity price shock and volatile international capital markets have resulted in contraction in output growth (and even recession in Brazil), but no financial crisis.
Why not? And can Latin America muddle through this episode of adverse international conditions and avoid the severe financial crises that distinguished the region in the 1980s and 1990s? Or will cumulative shocks eventually expose domestic financial vulnerabilities and cause severe crises to ensue?
In a short report accompanying the event, CLAAF members will seek to answer these questions, as well as:
Will an eventual increase in the Fed’s rates be the straw that breaks the camel's back in the region or will the expected series of small Fed rate hikes calm markets and induce a renewal of inflows to Latin America?
Increased flexibility in exchange rates has certainly helped absorb external shocks in the region. But, as most Latin American countries lack strong institutional quality, has this policy unintentionally resulted in a false sense of security and fostered postponement of needed reforms in other key areas?
Is now the time for tight monetary/fiscal policies even if they are pro-cyclical?
Guillermo Calvo, Professor, Columbia University; former Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank Carmen Reinhart, Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School Liliana Rojas-Suarez, President, CLAAF and Senior Fellow and Director, Latin America Initiative, Center for Global Development Laura Alfaro, Professor, Harvard Business School; former Minister of National Planning and Economic Policy, Costa Rica Pedro Carvalho de Mello, Professor, Universidade de Sao Paulo; former Commissioner, Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios, Brazil Roque Fernandez, Professor, Universidad del CEMA; former Minister of Finance, Argentina Pablo Guidotti Dean and Professor, School of Government, Universidad Torcuato di Tella; Former Vice-Minister of Finance, Argentina Enrique Mendoza, Presidential Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania and Director of Penn Institute for Economic Research Guillermo Perry, Non-resident fellow, Center for Global Development; Professor, Universidad de los Andes; Former Minister of Finance, Colombia Ernesto Talvi, Director of the Brookings-CERES Economic and Social Policy in Latin America Initiative
The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects 2018 recognizes that the global economy is enjoying a long-awaited broad-based cyclical recovery. In this favorable environment, the Bank expects growth in emerging and developing countries to continue during the next couple of years. But this is no time for complacency. Forces depressing potential output growth will continue unless countered by structural policies. While most commentators focus on the recent cyclical upturn, the new World Bank report presents a sober analysis of long-term growth prospects. Director of the World Bank's Development Prospects Group, Ayhan Kose will give a brief presentation of the report and will then participate in the panel discussion, moderated by CGD president, Masood Ahmed.
With the biometric registration of 9.2 million adults and documentation of 4.5 million children, Malawi has made a massive stride towards SDG 16.9 which requires states to “provide legal identity to all, including birth registration, by 2030”. How has Malawi achieved universal coverage in only 180 days despite lack of key infrastructure and scarce technical resources? What are the potential digital dividends of this initiative for Malawi and its people, and what can development partners and other countries learn from it? Tariq Malik, Chief Technical Advisor of UNDP, who leads this project, will walk us through this journey of success in the heart of Africa.
Five years after the landmark UN endorsement, countries around the world are now working to translate the lofty rhetoric of UHC into defined, tangible, equitable, and comprehensive health services for their populations. On December 12th, the world will officially mark the 5th annual Universal Health Coverage (UHC) Day—an opportunity to reflect on the global community’s role in supporting progress toward this important goals. In celebration of UHC day, the Center for Global Development is pleased to host a short program—Better Decisions, Better Health: Practical Experiences Supporting UHC from around the World—featuring practical experiences supporting UHC from Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and at the global level. A keynote address from Mark McClellan will precede remarks and presentations from the core partners of the International Decision Support Initiative (iDSI).
The Birdsall House Conference Series on Women seeks to identify and bring attention to leading research and scholarly findings on women’s empowerment in the fields of development economics, behavioral economics, and political economy. On December 7th, academics, private sector representatives, and policymakers will turn to an issue that affects women in rich and poor countries alike: the ability to make informed, voluntary, and autonomous choices about childbearing, and the implications of reproductive choice as a lever to expand women’s economic and life prospects. Until recently, there has been a lack of rigorous empirical evidence on the links between contraceptive access and women’s economic empowerment in low- and middle-income countries. The 2017 Birdsall House Conference will feature new findings on this relationship alongside existing evidence from the United States.
What are the challenges and opportunities for growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAP) region? In his presentation, Jihad Azour will present the IMF’s latest economic outlook for the MENAP region. He will argue that growth has not been fast enough and has not created sufficient opportunities to address high levels of unemployment. The presentation will be followed by a panel discussion on the main impediments to growth and highlight the policy priorities to durably increase it and make it more inclusive.
The terminology describing economic programs for women has changed: actions to ‘empower women economically’ have replaced efforts to ‘increase women’s productivity and incomes.’ But how can we actually measure ‘economic empowerment’? Last November, CGD, in collaboration with Data2X, IDRC and the World Bank Africa Gender Innovation Lab organized a panel discussion on possible measures and issues, drawing on evidence from the ExxonMobil Foundation-funded report Women’s Economic Empowerment: A Roadmap and its update, “Revisiting What Works.” Read the overview here. Since then, new research has been conducted which raises alternative perspectives on these measures.
Webcast of former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers' keynote at the Center for Global Development’s annual Global Development Changemaker Dinner. Summers’ speech, which coincides with President Trump’s first visit to China, will address the changing power dynamics among key global leaders and will discuss rethinking global development for the 21st Century.
The IMF Fiscal Affairs Department is launching a new book entitled Digital Revolutions in Public Finance. Offering the first detailed assessment of the impact of digital technology on fiscal policy, this publication is a landmark of a collaboration between the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. It includes contributions from academics, former government officials and technologists, providing perspectives on how digitalization can revolutionize the design and implementation of fiscal policy—and on the risks and challenges that need to be faced.