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Multiple crises in the Latin American past, including severe banking crises, have been accompanied by sharp and persistent devaluations. This time around, the impressively large currency depreciations (over 50 percent in some countries) resulting from the ongoing commodity price shock and volatile international capital markets have resulted in contraction in output growth (and even recession in Brazil), but no financial crisis.
Why not? And can Latin America muddle through this episode of adverse international conditions and avoid the severe financial crises that distinguished the region in the 1980s and 1990s? Or will cumulative shocks eventually expose domestic financial vulnerabilities and cause severe crises to ensue?
In a short report accompanying the event, CLAAF members will seek to answer these questions, as well as:
Will an eventual increase in the Fed’s rates be the straw that breaks the camel's back in the region or will the expected series of small Fed rate hikes calm markets and induce a renewal of inflows to Latin America?
Increased flexibility in exchange rates has certainly helped absorb external shocks in the region. But, as most Latin American countries lack strong institutional quality, has this policy unintentionally resulted in a false sense of security and fostered postponement of needed reforms in other key areas?
Is now the time for tight monetary/fiscal policies even if they are pro-cyclical?
Guillermo Calvo, Professor, Columbia University; former Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank Carmen Reinhart, Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School Liliana Rojas-Suarez, President, CLAAF and Senior Fellow and Director, Latin America Initiative, Center for Global Development Laura Alfaro, Professor, Harvard Business School; former Minister of National Planning and Economic Policy, Costa Rica Pedro Carvalho de Mello, Professor, Universidade de Sao Paulo; former Commissioner, Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios, Brazil Roque Fernandez, Professor, Universidad del CEMA; former Minister of Finance, Argentina Pablo Guidotti Dean and Professor, School of Government, Universidad Torcuato di Tella; Former Vice-Minister of Finance, Argentina Enrique Mendoza, Presidential Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania and Director of Penn Institute for Economic Research Guillermo Perry, Non-resident fellow, Center for Global Development; Professor, Universidad de los Andes; Former Minister of Finance, Colombia Ernesto Talvi, Director of the Brookings-CERES Economic and Social Policy in Latin America Initiative
The United Nations Development Program’s (UNDP) bold four-year Strategic Plan sets out to deliver solutions to end extreme poverty, reduce inequality, and build resilience to crises in order to help countries achieve the 2030 Agenda. But as the UN system grapples with funding challenges, as private finance is further mobilized for development, and as technological advances shape the development landscape, what is UNDP’s comparative advantage? We look forward to discussing these issues with UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner and key stakeholders.
Given the changing global landscape, development finance – rather than aid – is poised to be the future of development. The spotlight is increasingly on Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) to be catalysts in mobilizing needed financing. At a time when their record on development finance mobilization and development impact is still debated, they are nevertheless being asked to play a critical role in helping to fill huge financing gaps associated with meeting the SDGs. Several countries have established new DFIs and others are considering expanding DFI operations.
Corruption can siphon desperately needed resources away from development, but as some anti-corruption advocates have found, taking on vested interests can come at a great personal risk to their livelihoods—or even their lives. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s new book, Fighting Corruption Is Dangerous: The Story Behind the Headlines, draws on her years as Nigeria’s Finance Minister to provide practical lessons on the difficult, sometimes-dangerous, always-necessary work of fighting graft and corruption.
Most countries in Latin America are currently reporting fiscal deficits and many have increased their external debt ratios. This has refocused attention on whether the region’s resilience to external shocks has deteriorated, and it has raised questions about Latin America’s ability to reignite growth and support development efforts.
Technological advances in fields such as artificial intelligence and automation have the potential to fundamentally alter prevailing economic trends. While the effects of these changes are the subject of great debate in the developed world, less discussed has been how they will impact the developing world. Speakers will explore what emerging technologies mean for both the traditional models of development and the future of job creation in developing countries.
The Center for Global Development and the LSE-Oxford Commission on State Fragility, Growth and Development will co-host a conversation with David Cameron, former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Donald Kaberuka, High Representative on the African Union Peace Fund, distinguished visiting fellow at CGD, and former President of the African Development Bank, and Jennifer Widner, professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and a member of the Commission on State Fragility, Growth and Development, to discuss the need for a new global approach to state fragility. The Fragility Commission, which Cameron and Kaberuka chair, will be launching its report, Escaping the Fragility Trap, which makes the case for urgent action and outlines recommendations for how domestic and international actors can do things differently.
One-quarter of the world’s school-age children live in East Asia and the Pacific. In the past 50 years, some economies in the region have successfully transformed themselves by investing in the knowledge, skills, and abilities of their workforce. Through policy foresight, they have produced graduates with new levels of knowledge and skills almost as fast as industries have increased their demand for them. Yet, tens of millions of students in the region are in school but not learning. In fact, as many as 60 percent of students remain in systems that are struggling to escape the global learning crisis or in systems where performance is likely poor.