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Multiple crises in the Latin American past, including severe banking crises, have been accompanied by sharp and persistent devaluations. This time around, the impressively large currency depreciations (over 50 percent in some countries) resulting from the ongoing commodity price shock and volatile international capital markets have resulted in contraction in output growth (and even recession in Brazil), but no financial crisis.
Why not? And can Latin America muddle through this episode of adverse international conditions and avoid the severe financial crises that distinguished the region in the 1980s and 1990s? Or will cumulative shocks eventually expose domestic financial vulnerabilities and cause severe crises to ensue?
In a short report accompanying the event, CLAAF members will seek to answer these questions, as well as:
Will an eventual increase in the Fed’s rates be the straw that breaks the camel's back in the region or will the expected series of small Fed rate hikes calm markets and induce a renewal of inflows to Latin America?
Increased flexibility in exchange rates has certainly helped absorb external shocks in the region. But, as most Latin American countries lack strong institutional quality, has this policy unintentionally resulted in a false sense of security and fostered postponement of needed reforms in other key areas?
Is now the time for tight monetary/fiscal policies even if they are pro-cyclical?
Guillermo Calvo, Professor, Columbia University; former Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank Carmen Reinhart, Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School Liliana Rojas-Suarez, President, CLAAF and Senior Fellow and Director, Latin America Initiative, Center for Global Development Laura Alfaro, Professor, Harvard Business School; former Minister of National Planning and Economic Policy, Costa Rica Pedro Carvalho de Mello, Professor, Universidade de Sao Paulo; former Commissioner, Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios, Brazil Roque Fernandez, Professor, Universidad del CEMA; former Minister of Finance, Argentina Pablo Guidotti Dean and Professor, School of Government, Universidad Torcuato di Tella; Former Vice-Minister of Finance, Argentina Enrique Mendoza, Presidential Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania and Director of Penn Institute for Economic Research Guillermo Perry, Non-resident fellow, Center for Global Development; Professor, Universidad de los Andes; Former Minister of Finance, Colombia Ernesto Talvi, Director of the Brookings-CERES Economic and Social Policy in Latin America Initiative
In collaboration with the Salud Mesoamerica Initiative (SMI), CGD is pleased to invite you to a two-day conference highlighting lessons learned from SMI and how SMI’s experience can inform other programs in the future of healthcare. CGD has worked on results-based financing for years. From analyzing performance-based incentives to exploring cash on delivery aid to improving value for money for the Global Fund and its partners, we have been examining ways to maximize the impact of funding on health outcomes. We now have rigorous evaluations and evidence from SMI, a large-scale results-based funding program. This model public-private partnership allocates funding at the national level based on measurable improvements in coverage and quality of reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child healthcare. It has brought together international donors, a development bank, regional bodies, national governments, and local stakeholders in an innovative partnership that rewards for health system strengthening and increased equity.
When RCTs are not an option, geospatial data can be a powerful tool for evaluating development projects – opening up opportunities to understand what works, what doesn’t, and why - at a substantially lower time and cost. Dr. Ariel BenYishay will provide an overview of the growing field of geospatial impact evaluation highlighting how the increasing availability of geo-referenced intervention and outcome data offers many new opportunities for research and evaluation across the development field that can be just as (if not more) effective as randomized control trials (RCTs). Dr. BenYishay will share a recent case study using geospatial data that measured the impacts of Chinese development activities on sensitive forests in Tanzania and Cambodia between 2000 and 2014 that shows how powerful this tool can be.
The “glass ceiling” in finance has barely cracked. Compared to the available talent pool, there is still a large gap between the representation of men and women in leadership positions in banks and bank supervision agencies worldwide. In her presentation, Ratna Sahay will summarize new data on banking sector characteristics and performance, as well as the share of women on the boards of directors and banking supervision agency boards. The data indicate that—contrary to common perceptions—many low- and middle-income countries have a higher share of women in bank boards and banking supervision agency boards compared to advanced economies. Together with her IMF colleagues, Sahay uses this new dataset to explore the link between gender and financial stability. She will argue that the presence of women, as well as a higher share of women, on bank boards and banking supervision agencies may contribute to greater bank stability.
World Bank Group President Dr. Jim Yong Kim will join CGD President Masood Ahmed to discuss the future of multilateralism, the Bank’s efforts to maximize resources for development, and the critical importance of investing in people to meet tomorrow’s challenges.
Women are overrepresented in the informal sector worldwide, often stuck in dangerous, insecure, low-paid jobs. Waste picking in particular is a highly vulnerable and risky form of informal employment. In 1995, India’s Self-Employed Women’s Association (SEWA) organized women waste pickers in Ahmedabad into a cooperative to improve their working conditions and livelihoods. Over time, this informal arrangement evolved into Gitanjali – a women-owned and -run social enterprise, that produces a full range of stationery products for large multinational corporations, including Staples, IBM, and Goldman Sachs. What difference has Gitanjali made to the lives and opportunities of women waste pickers in India? What are the implications for women’s social enterprises in other countries? What are the challenges that remain to be overcome? The Center for Global Development is delighted to bring together some of the key private sector partners that helped Gitanjali generate social value, along with practitioners from the public sector and multilateral financial institutions, for a robust discussion about job options for poor women in low paid, informal occupations, including a model entrepreneurship venture. The event will be informed by the CGD report, The Gitanjali Cooperative: A Social Enterprise in the Making. Copies of the report’s executive summary will be provided. Light refreshments will be available.
The launch of the Cameroon Cataract Development Impact Loan—a Development Impact Bond (DIB) to provide cataract surgery services via a social enterprise model—marks a key moment in the history of results-based financing. The cataract bond is the first DIB to have a development finance institution (DFI) as an investor, and among the first pay-for-performance projects in eye care to assess the quantity, quality, equity, and financial sustainability of the services provided. Please join us for a discussion on the development of the bond and the experiences of the cataract bond partner organizations, as well as lessons learned from other health-related impact bonds and what it all suggests for the future of pay-for-success for health.
Numerous studies find that child health suffers when children are exposed to conflict, and armed conflicts are more likely to occur in poor countries with weak states. Nigeria is among the most conflict-prone countries in the world, experiencing the highest number of conflict-related deaths of all Sub-Saharan African countries in many of the years since 2000, with a peak in 2012. In this paper, researchers at the Urban Institute and the Center for Global Development are studying the relationship between child health and conflict in Nigeria by combining geo-coded data from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) of 2013 and the Social Conflict Analysis Database. In both urban and rural areas of Nigeria, they find significant increases in child wasting (acute malnutrition) in 2013 associated with proximity to violent conflict in 2012. In urban areas, infant mortality also increased significantly in 2003-2013, when the mother was exposed to conflict during pregnancy. They will discuss these findings and their implications, as well as some of the challenges to studying health in conflict-torn places.