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¿Qué tan resilientes serían las economías emergentes si ocurriese otra recesión global? En este caso, las debilidades del pasado podrían ser buenos predictores de vulnerabilidades futuras.
“Latin America is no exception regarding the adverse changes in emerging market conditions that have occurred since the US Fed began reducing Quantitative Easing (QE) in May 2013.” That’s the assessment of the Latin American Shadow Regulatory Committee (or CLAAF) in its latest statement.
How resilient would emerging market economies be if another global slowdown were to happen? In this case, past weakness may be a good gauge of future vulnerability.
Toward the end of the 2008 global economic crisis, the consensus was that developed economies would recover just as quickly as they did in past recessions. It was also expected that emerging market economies would continue acting as the world growth locomotive for a relatively long time. Until mid-2011, this perspective appeared to be in the process of materializing. By now, however, this scenario differs significantly from reality.
Last week I was one of a handful of speakers at the annual meeting of the Bretton Woods Committee, a non-partisan group that works to promote international economic cooperation and to foster strong, effective Bretton Woods institutions (i.e. the IMF and World Bank). Other speakers at the meeting, which was titled “From Vicious to Virtuous: The Cycle of Debt, Stability, and Growth” included U.S. Rep.
The Financial Times published my letter to the editor last week responding to Gillian Tett’s article “Will sovereign debt be the new subprime?” I elaborated on the risks of increasing public debt in the U.S. and other developed countries, and warned that mere perception of an excessive supply of sovereign debt can reduce the real value of that debt. Here’s my letter:
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