Arvind Subramanian is a joint senior fellow at the CGD and the Peterson Institute. This post appeared originally on the Peterson Institute’s China Economic Watch blog.
Is China poised to take over from the United States as the world’s most economically dominant power?
This is an essential question, and yet it has not yet been taken seriously enough in the United States, where, this central conceit still reigns: the United States’ economic preeminence cannot be seriously threatened because it is the United States’ to lose, and sooner or later, the United States will rise to the challenge of not losing it. China may be on its way to becoming an economic superpower, and the United States may have to share the global stage with it in the future. But, the argument goes, the threat from China is not so imminent, so great, or so multifaceted that it can push the United States out of the driver’s seat.