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WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
Blog Post
April 23, 2024
The ongoing global demographic transition is massive in scale and likely impact. For most of the past 200 years, the vast majority of the world’s countries have seen population growth, particularly working-age population growth. As they’ve gone through the "demographic transition" toward lower birth...
Blog Post
February 26, 2024
As policymakers and financiers set their priorities for 2024, we gathered a group of experts who've been working on pandemics and pandemic financing from a range of perspectives including epidemiology, economics, insurance, policy, and advocacy. The purpose of our event was to map out the next steps...
Blog Post
May 23, 2023
The past year has been challenging and turbulent for many frontier markets in Africa. In 2022, African economies met headwinds of inflation, the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, and sovereign debt challenges. This led to a decrease in demand for African goods and services, as well as reduced inve...
Blog Post
April 26, 2023
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp reduction of economic activity in the first months of 2020, which negatively affected the revenues, liquidity, and, potentially, the solvency of many firms. In response to this crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Prog...
WORKING PAPERS
April 26, 2023
This paper finds that shareholders of highly leveraged firms benefit relatively less compared to bondholders from the corporate quantitative easing (QE) announcements by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England in March 2020, as evidence of debt overhang. Firms more heavily impacted by the ...
Blog Post
April 24, 2023
That said, there are reasons to doubt that a declining working age population would have a long-term effect on prices. They are based on an argument that economists have long made when it comes to migration into economies where the domestic labor force was still expanding, termed the “lump of labor ...
Blog Post
April 20, 2023
Last week in DC was busy with the World Bank and IMF spring meetings, the Consortium of Universities in Global Health (CUGH) 2023 Annual Conference, and other events including the first UN-hosted Asia-Pacific Civil Registration & Vital Statistics (CRVS) Research Forum. Amidst a flurry of events on g...
Blog Post
April 10, 2023
The world has never been more educated, our populations more connected. Technological advance in areas from solar and fusion power through batteries to satellites and cancer vaccines will help deliver sustained development. Ending extreme ($2.15 a day) poverty, while long overdue, is on a trajectory...
Blog Post
March 10, 2023
In a recent piece with my colleague Mark Plant, I highlighted the financial pressures facing the IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT). The surge in PRGT lending during the pandemic and the continued high level of lending since then provided essential support to low-income countries (LICs)...