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CGD NOTE
March 24, 2025
After the decision of the Venezuelan regime to disregard the results of the presidential election of July 28, 2024, and subsequently swear in Maduro for a new term on January 10, 2025, the international community faces a new reality. The Venezuelan people, essentially, have tried every single tool i...
Blog Post
February 05, 2025
Mexico and Canada have been on the frontline of the new global (dis)order, making their response a potential case study for how economies that are smaller and somewhat dependent on America navigate pressure from the US in this new era of economic coercion. After the 180 degrees reversal on the tarif...
Blog Post
June 05, 2024
Addressing the unprecedented levels of irregular migration requires a fundamental shift in understanding the problem: People come whenever there are jobs to be filled in the American economy. It is true today, and it has been true for decades. That is main finding from my new study analyzing nearly ...
WORKING PAPER
June 05, 2024
This study investigates the link between Southwest US border crossings and labor market tightness, measured by the job openings to unemployed ratio, over nearly 25 years (2000–2023). Analyzing monthly data, it finds a strong positive correlation, suggesting that increased border crossings align with...
Blog Post
December 14, 2023
The US labor market has changed a lot since 1991, but the federal list of shortage occupations, which impacts employers and immigrant workers alike, has not. Now, for the first time in decades, the US Department of Labor (DOL) will soon be seeking information on how the Schedule A shortage occupatio...
WORKING PAPER
February 21, 2023
Immigration policy can have important net fiscal effects that vary by immigrants’ skill level. But mainstream methods to estimate these effects are problematic. Methods based on cash-flow accounting offer precision at the cost of bias; methods based on general equilibrium modeling address bias with ...
Blog Post
February 07, 2023
President Biden is scheduled to deliver his second State of the Union address tonight. Historically, these speeches have focused on domestic policy and leading national security issues, yielding limited airtime for international development. But, on occasion, past presidents of both parties have spo...
WORKING PAPER
January 23, 2023
The US limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to e...
