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CGD in the News

December 12, 2018

“La política expansiva es el ajuste” (Página 12)

From the article:

“Tenemos que seguir el camino del desierto de consolidar las cuentas públicas. Transitamos una posición muy sólida en términos de liquidez y trabajamos para lograr el inédito objetivo de contar con un año de prefinanciamiento”, sostuvo Dujovne al compartir un panel con el ex subsecretario para Asuntos Internacionales del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos, John Taylor; el ex ministro de Hacienda de Chile, Andrés Velasco, y la economista peruana Liliana Rojas Suárez. “Nuestro norte era reintegrar a la Argentina al mundo y converger a cuentas públicas solventes que nos garantizaran no estar expuestos a riesgos de liquidez. Veníamos de tener controles de capital, tener que exportar para importar, y no tener respeto por la ley”, aseguró el ministro, que confinó su exposición al tradicional libreto económico cambiemita.

December 11, 2018

Economistas recomiendan a Brasil no seguir el camino argentino: "el gradualismo no funciona" (La Politica)

From the article:
 
En el tercer panel de la Conferencia Internacional de Economía y Finanzas (CIEF) 2018, los economistas más destacados de la región disertaron sobre el futuro de Argentina y Brasil y le aconsejaron a Bolsonaro no seguir el ejemplo local.
 
"Hay una lección que Brasil debería aprender de la Argentina: el gradualismo no es conveniente, por ahí no es el camino. Sería irresponsable e increíblemente riesgoso posponer el ajuste macroeconómico y las reformas que deben hacerse", subrayó la Presidenta del Comité Latinoamericano de Asuntos Financieros (CLAAF) Liliana Rojas-Suarez.
 
Read the full article here.  
December 11, 2018

Dujovne: "Seguir con la disciplina fiscal y monetaria es lo más expansivo" (La Política Online)

From the article:

Nicolás Dujovne aseguró este martes en el marco de la Conferencia Internacional de Economía y Finanzas (CIEF) 2018 que la crisis de la economía argentina está llegando a su fin de la mano del ordenamiento de las cuentas públicas, la desaceleración de la inflación y el despegue de las exportaciones. Y reiteró que la baja del déficit es "el único camino" para crear bases sólidas de crecimiento.

El ministro de Hacienda participó del primer panel del encuentro organizado por El Banco Ciudad, la Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT) y el Comité Latinoamericano de Asuntos Financieros (CLAAF) en el Park Hyatt, evento que reunió a economistas de los más destacados del continente para analizar "Las economías emergentes ante un escenario financiero internacional más desafiante: Implicancias para América Latina y Argentina".

Junto con los ex ministros de Economía de Colombia y de Chile, Guillermo Perry Rubio y Andrés Velasco, el ex asesor del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos, John b Taylor y Liliana Rojas-Suárez, presidenta del CLAAF, Dujovne presentó su evaluación de la economía argentina en un contexto global cada vez más difícil para los países emergentes.

"Como región, Latinoamérica es la más débil del mundo", advirtió Rojas-Suárez al a vez que remarcó que al interior del subcontinente "hay una gran variedad": Chile y Perú son los más fuertes, mientras que "los más frágiles son Argentina y Brasil". Los motivos de la vulnerabilidad esgrimidos fueron en esencia tres: las necesidades de financiamiento, el nivel de deuda en moneda extranjera y el bajo dinamismo del crecimiento económico.

December 11, 2018

Argentina es una economía frágil ante los nubarrones globales (Clarín)

From the article:

Liliana Rojas Suárez, presidente del Comité Latinoamericano de Asuntos Financieros, resaltó que los países más afectados serán los que necesiten tomar deuda, los que estén más endeudados en moneda extranjera y aquellos cuya dinámica de crecimiento sea más frágil, tres requisitos con los que cumple Argentina.  En esta caracterización, Rojas Suárez precisó que Argentina y Brasil son los países más frágiles ante los shocks externos mientras que Chile y Perú se encuentran entre los más fuertes de la región.  

November 15, 2018

View from Felaban 2018 with Liliana Rojas-Suarez (The Banker)

 

Hosted by Silvia Pavoni

Video description:

How is the low adoption of Basel III rules affecting Latin American banks? Silvia Pavoni asks Liliana Rojas-Suarez, Latin America initiative's director at the Centre for Global Development.

You can also watch the video here.

 

 

November 13, 2018

Maintaining macroeconomic volatility is essential to implement Basel III in AL (El Dinero)

Note: Translated from Spanish using Google Translate.

By Danielis Fermín

From the article:

The director of the Center for Global Development (CGD), Liliana Rojas Suárez, explained that in order to design regulation and complementary measures for the adoption and adaptation of Basel III in Latin America, one must take into account "the high macroeconomic volatility and that the capital markets are underdeveloped."

In addition, the "inability to issue hard currencies and governance problems, both in the public and private sectors".

During her presentation, "Basel III: Challenges for bankers and regulators in emerging countries and Latin America," she noted that "these characteristics should be the guide to the principle of proportionality in the application of international regulatory standards in Latin America and other emerging countries."

Read the full article here

 

October 7, 2018

IMF and WB, restless before the first effects of the commercial war (La Tercera - Pulso)

Note: Translated from Spanish using Google Translate.

By La Tercera - Pulso 

From the article:

The growing concern over the escalation of trade tensions and its negative effects on the global economy will center much of the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, which will be held this week in Bali (Indonesia).

At the meeting, the Fund will present its new and expected global growth forecasts, which stood at a rate of 3.9% in 2018 and 2019 in July, and that its managing director, Christine Lagarde, already announced a few days ago that will be " less bright. "

The concern has grown as US President Donald Trump has shifted from words to action and imposed multimillion dollar tariffs on imports from China, to which Beijing has responded by levying US products.

"After the aura of optimism of 2017, when global growth seemed widespread, now there is a tendency towards pessimism in the face of the divergence that is beginning to be seen in global activity," Liliana Rojas, Center for Global Development researcher, told Efe. Suarez

Read the full article here.

 

August 7, 2018

Op-Ed: Trump’s Protectionist Threat to Latin America (Project Syndicate)

By Liliana Rojas-Suarez, Laura Alfaro, Pablo Guidotti, Guillermo Perry

The economic impacts of Donald Trump’s trade dispute with China have so far been limited, but the countries of Latin America are nonetheless paying an early price. For a region where many economies are already constrained by weakened fiscal positions, the additional uncertainty caused by rising protectionism is especially unwelcome.

WASHINGTON, DC – Despite many dire predictions, the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China has not resulted in a global economic downturn. With South Korea, Brazil, Australia, and Argentina permanently exempted from US tariffs on steel and aluminum, and with certain measures applied only to final goods and primary products, the impact of rising Sino-American trade tensions has so far been limited. 

But that does not mean the tilt toward protectionism has been harmless. On the contrary, US President Donald Trump’s posturing has increased economic uncertainty, contributed to stock market corrections, and added volatility to capital markets. For countries in Latin America, in particular, these and other perils are fueling concern that more severe economic pain is in store.

Read the full article here.

April 11, 2018

Senators, Analysts Implore Administration To Engage With Latin America As A Go-To Trade Partner (Inside U.S. Trade)

From the article:

Pablo Guidotti, following an April 10 event at the Center for Global Development in Washington, DC, told Inside U.S. Trade Brazil and Argentina would likely secure “permanent exclusions” because those countries “are not currently” conducting trade negotiations with the U.S., unlike the NAFTA countries and others in trade talks with the U.S. Guidotti is a member of the Latin American Committee on Macroeconomic and Financial Issues (CLAAF) and previously served as Argentina’s vice minister of finance.

Both Guidotti and Liliana Rojas-Suarez, who is a former chief economist for Latin America at Deutsche Bank, said they did not expect trade deliverables to stem from the summit now that Trump has canceled his plans to attend.
 
“Nothing will happen at the summit now that Trump is not going,” Guidotti said.
 
CLAAF, which is composed of former officials and analysts who assess trends regional finance and trade issues, previewed a statement it plans to release this week on Latin American concerns over escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
 
“If escalating protectionism eventually affects China and U.S. economic growth, most Latin American countries could suffer through a reduction of commodity prices, as capital flows to the region have traditionally been highly correlated with commodity prices,” the group said in the previewed statement sent to Inside U.S. Trade. “A perfect storm may be in the making, as international interest rates are starting to increase, trade conflicts are on the rise, and the traditional safety net offered by multilateral [organizations] may be weaker than in the past.”
 

Read the full article here.

February 22, 2018

Increasing External Debt And Electoral Cycles In Emerging Markets: How Do They Affect Prospects For Long-Term Growth? (Vox Lacea)

From the article:

Recently, the World Bank published its latest Global Economic Prospects report (GEP), which highlights a welcomed cyclical recovery for all major regions of the world following recent slow growth. I was pleased to participate in a panel discussion at CGD analyzing the report’s findings, and to share my perspectives both on its implications and on future global outlooks - especially for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
 
Although short-term growth prospects have improved for EMDEs, with an expected average of 4.5 percent for 2018 and 4.7 percent for 2019 and 2020, the report stresses that this is no time for complacency. Despite improving economic activity, potential long-term growth is predicted to extend its decade-long falling trend in these economies. Undoubtedly, this impedes the likelihood of any foreseeable convergence of per capita income with those of advanced economies. So then, what should policymakers in EMDEs do? The answer is straightforward: they should implement proper reforms to improve potential growth. As the GEP report emphasizes, the right policies should aim to boost human and physical capital and improve productivity through reforms in infrastructure, education, health systems, labor markets, governance, and business climate.
 
The question then becomes, how likely is it that these necessary reforms - to improve productivity and convergence prospects - will materialize? The answer depends on two factors: the capacity and the willingness of policymakers to pursue proper reforms.
 

Read the full article here.

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