Ideas to Action:

Independent research for global prosperity

Publications

 

A cover image of a COVID-19 vaccine prediction paper
October 1, 2020

COVID-19 Vaccine Predictions: Using Mathematical Modelling and Expert Opinions to Estimate Timelines and Probabilities of Success of COVID-19 Vaccines

We collected publicly available information, interviewed experts, and used our diverse range of expertise to analyse and model the COVID-19 vaccine portfolio in order to generate predictions about the vaccine portfolio's timeline.

A woman being tested for coronavirus. Adobe Stock.
August 21, 2020

Using COVID-19 Test, Trace, and Isolate Systems Effectively in Middle-Income Countries

The global public health response to COVID-19 is pivoting from high-income European countries to MICs predominantly in Asia and South America. Effective test, trace, and isolate systems may be particularly valuable in MICs, where social and economic circumstances do not support large and long-term lockdowns. But investing in such systems in MICs comes with a number of limitations and opportunity costs.

An image of a Covid-19 vaccine
June 4, 2020

India’s COVID-19 Testing Capacity Must Grow by a Factor of 10: Here’s How That Can Happen

Diagnostic testing is at the center of the policy debate around COVID-19 interventions in India. As of June 1, 2020, India had conducted approximately 3.8 million tests since it began testing in February, but many experts have noted that testing capacity is still drastically insufficient for the needs of the population.

Prashant Yadav , Abha Mehndiratta , Kalipso Chalkidou , Sidharth Rupani and Krishna Reddy
Image of MVAC vaccines process
May 7, 2020

Leave No One Behind: Using a Benefit-Based Advance Market Commitment to Incentivise Development and Global Supply of COVID-19 Vaccines

The global effort to control the COVID-19 pandemic has seen an exceptional allocation of public and philanthropic funds to advance the development of diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines as quickly as possible. While critical, even these significant commitments represent only a “down payment” on a price tag that could eventually exceed $50 billion just to scale the production of vaccines to control this global pandemic—amounts that cannot be raised through traditional donor and philanthropic commitments.

Vaccine manufacturing plant. Adobe Stock
April 25, 2020

Delivering on the Promise of “Equitable Access” to Epidemic Vaccines and Treatments: the Need for Norms, Processes, and Evidence to Guide Supply and Allocation

While there has been much interest and investment in developing epidemic vaccines and medicines to combat emerging infectious disease threats, there has been less attention to how we will manage and allocate the global supply of efficacious vaccines and treatments once we have them. The launch of the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator marks an unprecedented commitment to global collaboration to ensure rapid and equitable access to medical countermeasures for COVID-19, such as vaccines and treatments.

Cover image for MVAC
February 5, 2020

Blueprint for a Market-Driven Value-Based Advance Commitment for Tuberculosis

The market-driven, value-based advance commitment (MVAC) builds on the advance market commitment (AMC) mechanism previously used in global health with several important innovations and improvements. Most crucially, the MVAC is driven by MIC demand rather than donor contributions; is informed by countries’ ability to pay rather than a single, “cost-plus” price; and allows pharmaceutical companies to reap higher revenues from a more effective product. In this report, we apply our new model—the MVAC—to a target product profile (TPP), published by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2016 and endorsed by BMGF, for a pan-TB regimen.

Cover of brief
July 2, 2019

Tackling the Triple Transition in Global Health Procurement (brief)

There have been impressive gains in global health over the past 20 years, with millions of lives saved through expanded access to essential medicines and other health products. But behind these successes is an unacceptable reality: in many low- and middle-income countries, lifesaving health products are either unavailable or beyond the reach of the people who need them most.

Various bottles of pills
May 1, 2019

Aggregating Demand for Pharmaceuticals is Appealing, but Pooling Is Not a Panacea

As low- and middle-income countries shift away from donor support, their challenge will be finding a way to aggregate demand in order to achieve the benefits that the pooled purchasing arrangements of vertical health programs now provide. As a first step in tackling this challenge, much can be learned from a diverse group of pooled procurement initiatives that have developed over the past 40 years in high-, middle-, and low-income countries. This note reviews the rationale and functions of these initiatives, notes their potential benefits and barriers, and draws lessons regarding how best to incorporate pooled pharmaceutical purchasing models into the design and implementation of health financing reforms in countries in transition.

Cover of Working Paper 507
April 3, 2019

The Future of Global Health Procurement: Issues around Pricing Transparency - Working Paper 507

This paper focuses on the role that price transparency may play in the efficient and effective procurement of medicines by middle- and low-income countries. Will making prices publicly available make procurement more efficient and cost-effective medicines more accessible? We conclude that transparency of the procurement process significantly lowers costs by encouraging bidders. 

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