Ideas to action: independent research for global prosperity
The Case for Globalization and Robust Global Value Chains
February 08, 2024
A New Vintage of Populism in Latin America
February 23, 2024
Three New Estimates of India’s All-Cause Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic
July 20, 2021
India lacks an authoritative estimate of the death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic. We report excess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through June 2021. Estimating COVID-deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive. But all estimates suggest tha...
The New Era of Unconditional Convergence
February 23, 2021
The central fact that has motivated the empirics of economic growth—namely unconditional divergence—is no longer true and has not been so for decades.
The IMF’s Growth Forecasts for Poor Countries Don’t Match Its COVID Narrative
May 14, 2020
The IMF’s forecasts of GDP growth in 2020 suggest a substantially muted impact of the COVID crisis for developing countries compared to advanced economies. We hope that the relative optimism will not induce complacency and elicit a less-than-forceful response by countries themselves nor legitim...
Glimpsing the End of Economic History? Unconditional Convergence and the Missing Middle Income Trap - Working Paper 438
September 29, 2016
This paper suggests a reinterpretation of global growth—encompassing notions of unconditional convergence and the middle income trap—in the past 50 years through the lens of growth theory. The last 20-30 years have been a golden era of convergence, challenging the new conventional w...
Manufacturing or Services? An Indian Illustration of a Development Dilemma - Working Paper 409
June 10, 2015
Manufacturing has historically offered the fastest path out of poverty, but there is mounting evidence that this path may be all but closed to developing countries today. Some have suggested that services might provide a new path forward, while others have expressed skepticism about this claim and c...
Understanding Economic Development Reading List - Arvind Subramanian
May 30, 2014
Senior fellow Arvind Subramanian has just finished teaching a course at the School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University on long run economic development. Not the recent trend toward micro-development that focuses on questions such as “will giving away free bed-...
India’s Trade, Investment, and Industrial Policies: A Macro Assessment Testimony before the United States International Trade Commission
February 12, 2014
Arvind Subramanian testified before the United States International Trade Commission on February 12, 2014. Subramanian shared his thoughts on India’s trade, investment, and industrial policies and offered policy recommendations from both an economic and strategic perspective. &n...