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Research

Innovative, independent, peer-reviewed. Explore the latest economic research and policy proposals from CGD’s global development experts.
POLICY PAPERS
The Future of UK Global Health Policy: Challenges and Opportunities
Peter Baker
and
Lydia Regan
November 30, 2023
WORKING PAPERS
Women's Underrepresentation in IFI Leadership
Eeshani Kandpal et al.
November 27, 2023
TESTIMONY
EU-Africa Strategy: State of Play
Mikaela Gavas
November 24, 2023
CGD NOTES
Australia-Tuvalu Climate and Migration Agreement Takeaways and Next Steps
Sam Huckstep
and
Helen Dempster
December 04, 2023

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Research
Displaying 1 - 7 of 27
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WORKING PAPERS
Three New Estimates of India’s All-Cause Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Abhishek Anand et al.
July 20, 2021
India lacks an authoritative estimate of the death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic. We report excess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through June 2021. Estimating COVID-deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive. But all estimates suggest tha...
WORKING PAPERS
The New Era of Unconditional Convergence
Dev Patel et al.
February 23, 2021
The central fact that has motivated the empirics of economic growth—namely unconditional divergence—is no longer true and has not been so for decades.
WORKING PAPERS
The IMF’s Growth Forecasts for Poor Countries Don’t Match Its COVID Narrative
Justin Sandefur
and
Arvind Subramanian
May 14, 2020
The IMF’s forecasts of GDP growth in 2020 suggest a substantially muted impact of the COVID crisis for developing countries compared to advanced economies. We hope that the relative optimism will not induce complacency and elicit a less-than-forceful response by countries themselves nor legitim...
WORKING PAPERS
Glimpsing the End of Economic History? Unconditional Convergence and the Missing Middle Income Trap - Working Paper 438
Sutirtha Roy et al.
September 29, 2016
This paper suggests a reinterpretation of global growth—encompassing notions of unconditional convergence and the middle income trap—in the past 50 years through the lens of growth theory. The last 20-30 years have been a golden era of convergence, challenging the new conventional w...
WORKING PAPERS
Manufacturing or Services? An Indian Illustration of a Development Dilemma - Working Paper 409
Amrit Amirapu
and
Arvind Subramanian
June 10, 2015
Manufacturing has historically offered the fastest path out of poverty, but there is mounting evidence that this path may be all but closed to developing countries today. Some have suggested that services might provide a new path forward, while others have expressed skepticism about this claim and c...
SYLLABUSES
Understanding Economic Development Reading List - Arvind Subramanian
Arvind Subramanian
May 30, 2014
Senior fellow Arvind Subramanian has just finished teaching a course at the School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University on long run economic development. Not the recent trend toward micro-development that focuses on questions such as “will giving away free bed-...
TESTIMONY
India’s Trade, Investment, and Industrial Policies: A Macro Assessment Testimony before the United States International Trade Commission
Arvind Subramanian
February 12, 2014
Arvind Subramanian testified before the United States International Trade Commission on February 12, 2014. Subramanian shared his thoughts on India’s trade, investment, and industrial policies and offered policy recommendations from both an economic and strategic perspective.  &n...

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