Ideas to action: independent research for global prosperity
Does SDR Recycling Impair Reserve Management?
November 14, 2023
Improving School Management of Violence in Peru
November 22, 2023
Identifying Macroeconomic Resilience to External Shocks in Emerging and Developing Countries: Lessons from the Global Shocks of 2020-2022
October 05, 2023
This paper uses a straightforward Resilience Indicator, constructed from a small set of economic and institutional variables, to show that by 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent global shocks, it was possible to identify emerging markets and developing countries that would encounter ...
The Fiscal Effect of Immigration: Reducing Bias in Influential Estimates
February 21, 2023
Immigration policy can have important net fiscal effects that vary by immigrants’ skill level. But mainstream methods to estimate these effects are problematic. Methods based on cash-flow accounting offer precision at the cost of bias; methods based on general equilibrium modeling address bias with ...
The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery
January 23, 2023
The US limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to e...
The Economic and Fiscal Effects on the United States from Reduced Numbers of Refugees and Asylum Seekers
March 23, 2022
International migrants who seek protection also participate in the economy. Thus the policy of the United States to drastically reduce refugee and asylum-seeker arrivals from 2017 to 2020 might have substantial and ongoing economic consequences. This paper places conservative bounds on those effects...
Migration on the Rise, a Paradigm in Decline: The Last Half-Century of Global Mobility
January 28, 2022
The past several decades have witnessed a rebirth of global labor mobility. Workers have begun to move between countries at rates not seen since before World War One. During the same period, economists’ study of international migration has been framed by a particular textbook model of location choic...
Labour Mobility with Vocational Skill: Australian Demand and Pacific Supply
October 14, 2021
How many immigrants with less than university education, for a given immigration quota, maximise economic output? The answer is simple—zero—in the canonical model of the labour market, where the marginal product of a university-educated immigrant is always higher. We build an alternative model, foll...
Global Mobility and the Threat of Pandemics: Evidence from Three Centuries
December 10, 2020
Countries restrict the overall extent of international travel and migration to balance the expected costs and benefits of mobility. Given the ever-present threat of new, future pandemics, how should permanent restrictions on mobility respond?