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Research

Innovative, independent, peer-reviewed. Explore the latest economic research and policy proposals from CGD’s global development experts.
CGD NOTES
Does SDR Recycling Impair Reserve Management?
Bernat Camps Adrogué
and
Mark Plant
November 14, 2023
WORKING PAPERS
Phonics and Foreign Aid: Can America Teach the World to Read?
Justin Sandefur et al.
November 20, 2023
WORKING PAPERS
Improving School Management of Violence in Peru
Gabriela Smarrelli
November 22, 2023
CGD NOTES
Breaking Financing Barriers for a Just Climate Transition in Africa
Mahmoud Mohieldin et al.
November 17, 2023

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Research
Displaying 1 - 7 of 49
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WORKING PAPERS
Climate Change and Government Borrowing Costs: A Triple Whammy for Emerging Market Economies
Benedict Clements et al.
October 24, 2023
Climate change is a systemic risk to the global economy. While there is a large body of literature documenting the potential economic consequences of climate change, there is relatively little research on the link between vulnerabilities to climate change, the buildup of climate debt by countries wi...
WORKING PAPERS
Public Spending and Inclusive Growth in Developing Asia
Benedict Clements et al.
August 30, 2023
Higher levels of fiscal redistribution, through income taxes and direct transfers, increase the probability of achieving inclusive growth. To spur inclusive growth in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, countries with limited fiscal space will need to focus on improving efficiency and reallocate ex...
WORKING PAPERS
The Fiscal Effect of Immigration: Reducing Bias in Influential Estimates
Michael Clemens
February 21, 2023
Immigration policy can have important net fiscal effects that vary by immigrants’ skill level. But mainstream methods to estimate these effects are problematic. Methods based on cash-flow accounting offer precision at the cost of bias; methods based on general equilibrium modeling address bias with ...
WORKING PAPERS
The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery
Michael Clemens
and
Ethan G. Lewis
January 23, 2023
The US limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to e...
WORKING PAPERS
Why Do Governments Cut Their Deficits? Lessons for High-Debt Countries in a Post-Pandemic World
Benedict Clements et al.
October 31, 2022
We construct a novel database covering more than 450 fiscal consolidation episodes in 185 countries during the period 1979-2019. Using discrete choice models, we then examine the (broader macroeconomic and political) factors motivating these fiscal consolidation episodes.
WORKING PAPERS
Fiscal Policy for Inclusive Growth in Asia
Benedict Clements et al.
April 06, 2022
This paper discusses how fiscal policy can help foster more inclusive growth in developing Asia. On average, government expenditures in developing Asia are higher, as a share of gross domestic product, than those in Latin America and the Caribbean. Relative to Latin America, developing Asia spends m...
WORKING PAPERS
Priorities for Strengthening Key Revenue Sources in Asia
Sanjeev Gupta
and
João Tovar Jalles
April 06, 2022
This paper discusses the evolution of key taxes in the past 20 years in developing Asia and fiscal challenges that these countries face in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. It presents estimates of tax capacity and tax potential and discusses the productivity of key taxes in the region. The paper find...

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