Ideas to Action:

Independent research for global prosperity

Publications

 

An image of the paper.
July 28, 2021

Binding Constraints on Digital Financial Inclusion in Indonesia: An Analysis Using the Decision Tree Approach

Despite the concerted efforts of the Indonesian government to increase financial inclusion and the e-commerce–led growth of digital payment services, a large proportion of the country’s population remains financially excluded. Much of the growth and innovation has mainly benefited those already financially included. To understand this outcome, we use the decision tree approach developed by Claessens and Rojas-Suárez (2020), focusing on one of the products with the largest potential to increase financial inclusion in the country: e-money.

Firman Witoelar , Teguh Yudo Wicaksono and Carlos Mangunsong
An image of the policy paper.
July 28, 2021

Searching for the Binding Constraint to Digital Financial Inclusion in Pakistan: A Decision Tree Approach

Over the last decade, Pakistan has seen improvements in the coverage of its networks of bank branches, ATMs, and mobile money agents. However, the country is lagging behind comparator countries when it comes to the financial inclusion of its population; according to the latest estimates, barely 20 percent are currently included. By using the Claessens and Rojas-Suarez (2020) decision tree methodology, this paper assesses the potential demandand supply-side constraints limiting the usage of digital payment services to identify which constraints are binding

Imran Khan and Dr. Karrar Hussain Jaffar
Cover of Policy Paper 142
May 17, 2019

The Kunming-Vientiane Railway: The Economic, Procurement, Labor, and Safeguards Dimensions of a Chinese Belt and Road Project

The Kunming-Vientiane railway is an anchor investment of the Chinese government’s Belt and Road initiative. This case study will assess the rail project along four dimensions: economic implications; procurement arrangements; labor; and environmental and social safeguards. In each of these areas, evidence from the railway project suggests that Chinese policy and practice could be better aligned with the practices of other sources of multilateral and bilateral development finance.

Cover: Unequal Ventures
April 30, 2018

Unequal Ventures: Results from a Baseline Study of Gender and Entrepreneurship in East Java, Indonesia

A study of women and men business owners in East Java offers a unique opportunity to analyze characteristics of entrepreneurs and their businesses by gender for a country where such systematic data are scarce. The study is one of two randomized controlled trials launched in 2015 to assess the power of mobile savings and training for women entrepreneurs. This report details baseline results from the Indonesia trial, still under way, which is testing whether providing financial literacy training for women who are potential bank clients and varying financial incentives to bank agents promoting a new mobile savings product make a difference in increasing  entrepreneurs’ uptake of formal savings and in improving economic outcomes. Short-term results of the other trial, in Tanzania, were reported in the first report in this series.

Cover of "Mindful Saving: Exploring the Power of Savings for Women"
March 22, 2018

Mindful Saving: Exploring the Power of Savings for Women

Mobile savings hold great promise, because they can considerably reduce transaction costs that can be unduly heavy for women. Two questions guide us: how can we encourage more women microentrepreneurs to access formal savings accounts, and is mobile saving a particularly fitting solution? This series uses empirical evidence to address these issues.

Cover of Policy Paper 121
March 4, 2018

Examining the Debt Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative from a Policy Perspective

China’s Belt and Road Initiative hopes to deliver trillions of dollars in infrastructure financing to Asia, Europe, and Africa. This paper assesses the likelihood of debt problems in the 68 countries identified as potential BRI borrowers. We conclude that eight countries are at particular risk of debt distress based on an identified pipeline of project lending associated with BRI. 

John Hurley , Scott Morris and Gailyn Portelance
Cover of Working Paper 473
December 13, 2017

Encouraging State Governments to Protect and Restore Forests Using Ecological Fiscal Transfers: India’s Tax Revenue Distribution Reform - Working Paper 473

India’s tax revenue distribution reform creates the world’s first ecological fiscal transfers (EFTs) for forest cover, and a potential model for other countries. In this paper we discuss the origin of India’s EFTs and their potential effects. In a simple preliminary analysis, we do not yet observe that the EFTs have increased forest cover across states, consistent with our hypothesis that one to two years of operation is too soon for the reform to have had an effect. This means there remains substantial scope for state governments to protect and restore forests as an investment in future state revenues.

January 29, 2007

Group Versus Individual Liability: A Field Experiment in the Philippines - Working Paper 111, updated May 2009

Group liability--wherein individuals are both borrowers and guarantors of other client's loans--is often described as the key innovation that led to the explosion of microcredit. It is thought to create incentives for peers to screen, monitor and enforce each other's loans. But some argue that group liability actually discourages good clients from borrowing, jeopardizing growth and sustainability. In this working paper, CGD non-resident fellow Dean Karlan and his co-author discuss the results of a field experiment at a bank in the Philippines, where they randomly reassigned half of the existing group liability centers as individual liability centers. They find that converting group liability to individual liability, while keeping aspects of group lending like weekly repayments and common meeting place, does not affect the repayment rate, and actually attracts new clients. This paper is one in a series of six CGD working papers by Dean Karlan on various aspects of microfinance (Working Paper Nos. 106 –111).

Dean Karlan and Xavier Giné
October 13, 2006

Microfinance as Business - Working Paper 101(Revised November 2006)

Microfinance is a widely celebrated strategy for helping poor people in the developing world. Leading microfinance institutions, including the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Grameen Bank, reach millions of clients. CGD research fellow David Roodman and Uzma Qureshi analyze why some microfinance institutions succeed in covering costs, earning returns, attracting capital, and scaling up. They conclude that financial imperatives can explain much about how microfinance products are designed, for example, the common emphasis on group lending to women. Thus the business acumen of microfinance innovators is underappreciated. But more rigorous study is needed to understand when and where these design choices help clients.

David Roodman and Uzma Qureshi
December 1, 2002

Private Sector Involvement in Financial Crisis Resolution: Definition, Measurement, and Implementation - Working Paper 18

Public policy on financial crises in emerging markets has implicitly been grounded in economic theory calling for lender-of-last-resort intervention when the country is solvent, and on theory recognizing that reputational damage is the quasi-collateral enabling lending to sovereigns with no physical collateral. The call for Private Sector Involvement — PSI — in the financing of crisis resolution has appropriately arisen from the desire for fairness as well as for successful outcomes. This paper identifies an array of PSI modalities and argues that in each crisis case the most voluntary type consistent with the circumstances should be chosen, to speed return to market access.