Based on UN projections from the period 2015 to 2050, Rebekah Smith and Farah Hani have calculated that prime working-age populations of OECD countries will shrink by more than 92 million people while there will be nearly 1.4 billion new working-age people in developing countries. This note updates and extends that analysis, including by examining the coming labor shortage In upper middle income countries, where the forecast decline in the number of workers is even larger than in high-income countries. Unaddressed, the global workforce imbalance is a threat to economic performance in both poorer and richer countries. But it also presents a considerable opportunity to both sets of countries—if they embrace global worker mobility
The world is undergoing rapid digital transformation changing the way individuals, markets, and governments interact and operate. Digital technologies have become part of our everyday lives. The only constant in the digital world is change, and individuals, businesses, governments, and societies need to adapt quickly to keep up with it. At the same time, a significant proportion of the world’s population – often the poorest and the most vulnerable – do not have access to the digital tools and resources that many of us take for granted. As the world moves to a “digital first” approach to economic activity, it is important to ensure that the digital world is inclusive and equitable, advancing the global development objectives—reducing poverty, increasing human capital, ensuring sustainability and creating opportunities for a better life for all.
Tackling global challenges effectively needs donors to rethink how the resources and expertise of diverse governmental actors are brought together. Bilateral donor governance urgently needs a conductor to coordinate a whole-of-government development policy and an orchestra of actors for its implementation. Sadly, several donors are muddling through without either.
The Commitment to Development Index (CDI) ranks 40 of the world’s most powerful countries on policies that affect more than five billion people living in poorer nations. In this brief, we summarize the findings from the 2021 edition of the CDI.
Operationalizing Climate Adaptation at the US International Development Finance Corporation: The Case for an Agriculture-Led Agenda in Low-Income Countries
This paper reviews the US International Development Finance Corporation’s agriculture portfolio, and based on this review, proposes elements of an agriculture strategy that can overcome barriers to adaptation and resilience investments in the most climate vulnerable markets.
Unprecedented heat waves and wildfires in 2021 are a warning of worse to come and a signal that the tempo of climate change may be quickening. A warmer planet subject to frequent and destructive severe weather events will be less livable, the productivity of economic activities will suffer, and higher temperatures will increase both morbidity and mortality. However, this future is not necessarily locked in.
The Case for Transparency in Power Project Contracts: A Proposal for the Creation of Global Disclosure Standards and PPA Watch
The purpose of a nation’s power sector is to deliver reliable electricity at the lowest cost and for the greatest benefit. At the heart of any private electricity generation project is a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), a contract that contains key provisions such as price, payment stipulations, and obligations by the offtaker utility and/or host-government.
How did children learn while schools were closed during 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic? In this paper we evaluate the effectiveness of live tutoring calls from teachers, using a randomized controlled trial with 4,399 primary school students in Sierra Leone.
In 2020, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) joined efforts by other multilateral development banks to rapidly scale up support to developing countries to address COVID-19. Beyond headline numbers, there has been less focus on how ADB’s support was distributed by country income group, sector, modality and product, and how the bank has operated in 2021.
Productivity differentials have been documented as the main determinant of the variation of income per capita across countries.
Vietnam’s development since the early 1990s has given new life to the East Asian export-led growth model. For late starting economies, Vietnam’s experience provides valuable lessons not only on the policy initiatives that can deliver positive results, but also on the inevitable and the potentially avoidable pitfalls that can slow or derail development.
The approval of a new allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the first effort to deal with the financial impact of the COVID-19 crisis on a global level. The purpose of this note is to reframe the concept of SDRs and then to outline in broad the types of proposals that have been mooted as a basis for more detailed work over the coming months.
In an updated review on the gendered social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, we examine 49 studies identified by our search criteria between January and March 2021. This review included peer-reviewed papers, pre-prints and working papers that met specific search terms, contained empirical analyses and complete information on the study methodology, and included findings on the gendered social and economic impacts of the pandemic in low- and middle-income contexts.
Enabling US Government Participation in Pull Mechanisms for Social Impact Innovation: A Survey of Federal Authorities, Budgetary Barriers, and Potential Solutions
To help the US government make broader use of pull approaches, this policy paper surveys the ways in which US government authorities, budgetary rules, and procurement approaches either facilitate or constrain use of pull mechanisms to support R&D. It specifically focused on the budgetary “scoring” issues that can affect, and sometimes hinder, the use of such mechanisms.
Malaria Case Management in the Private Sector in Africa: A Call for Action to Identify Sustainable Solutions
Over the past two decades, partnerships between bilateral and multilateral funders, philanthropy, national governments, and the private sector have substantially increased global access to effective malaria treatment. Nevertheless, further action on malaria case management is needed to meet global targets for reduced malaria morbidity and mortality.
The Online Survey of Micro- and Small-Enterprises is a continuing effort to gain a better understanding of China’s micro- and small- enterprises and self-employed businesses by conducting quarterly surveys. The key findings of the first quarter 2021 survey are as follows.
Using project data from eight multilateral development banks, we compile all projects with a childcare component from 2000 to June 2021. Our analysis explores best practices across institutions, identifies gaps and areas for improvement, and makes recommendations for how MDBs can increase and improve investments in childcare.
Are Current Models of Data Protection Fit for Purpose? Understanding the Consequences for Economic Development
The rapid increase in the number of countries that have enacted data privacy regimes over the last decade promises greater protection of personal data for a growing share of the world’s inhabitants. But meaningful questions remain about the effectiveness of these regimes in practice, alongside concerns that poor implementation of data privacy laws could weaken the protection provided and stifle innovation that supports economic growth and development. Here are the key takeaways from a roundtable discussion hosted by CGD on the issue.