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August 27, 2007

Investing in People by Investing in Data: How Best to Incorporate the New MCA Eligibility Indicators

The board of the Millennium Challenge Corporation will soon decide how to incorporate two new natural resources indicators—a Natural Resource Management Index (NRMI) and a Land Rights and Access indicator—into the FY2008 country selection process. In a new paper by CGD’s MCA Monitor team, Sarah Rose, Sheila Herrling, and Steve Radelet explore how to integrate these new indicators into the MCA's three eligibility criteria categories: Ruling Justly, Investing in People, and Economic Freedom. They recommend adding the Land Rights indicator to the Economic Freedom category, and the NRMI to Investing in People. They also urge the MCC to offer incentives for a third party to create an educational quality indicator, thereby bringing the total number of investing in people indicators to six, equal to the number of indicators in the other two categories.

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August 13, 2007

A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments - Working Paper 125

*REVISED Version May 2008

In development economics, statistical analysis usually begins with data from many observational units--households, companies, or countries--over just a few time periods. Two analysis techniques are becoming popular for studying causal relationships among variables in this "short panel" setting but their implementation may produce false results. In this new working paper CGD research fellow David Roodman shows how inaccurate results can skew the development debate and offers some simple techniques for reducing the risks.

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July 23, 2007

Does the IMF Constrain Health Spending in Poor Countries? (Brief)

This brief summarizes the findings of the CGD working group on IMF Programs and Health Spending, convened in fall 2006 to investigate the effect of International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs on health spending in low-income countries. The report offers clear, practical recommendations for improvements—for the IMF, the World Bank, the governments of countries working within IMF programs, and civil society organizations.

David Goldsbrough
July 23, 2007

Does the IMF Constrain Health Spending in Poor Countries? Evidence and an Agenda For Action

This report of the CGD working group on IMF Programs and Health Spending explores the controversy that surrounds IMF-supported programs in low-income countries and their effect on the health sector. Critics contend that programs unduly constrain health spending though macroeconomic, especially fiscal, policies that are too restrictive towards government spending and wage bill ceilings preventing a scaling up of the health workforce. The working group, chaired by CGD visiting fellow David Goldsbrough, examined the evidence through detailed case studies and cross-country data to make recommendations for the IMF and other relevant actors. They urge the IMF to explore a broader range of options on the fiscal deficit and government spending; clarify the role of the IMF with regards to aid projections; constrain the use of wage bill ceilings to very specific circumstances; and give greater emphasis to the smoothing of expenditures.

David Goldsbrough
July 20, 2007

The U.S. Response to Precarious States: Tentative Progress and Remaining Obstacles to Coherence

The Bush administration has declared that fragile states are a threat to international security and an obstacle to global development. But Washington is struggling with how to respond to this challenge effectively. In this new CGD Essay, research fellow Stewart Patrick suggests ways that the U.S. can improve its performance in conflict prevention, crisis response, and post-conflict state-building. Among the recommendations: establish criteria for determining when and where to engage and improve civil-military planning and coordination.

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July 9, 2007

A White House Focus on Social Justice in Latin America?

A White House conference on social justice in Latin America this week may signal a shift to U.S. engagement with the region that goes beyond security, free trade, and anti-narcotics efforts. CGD president Nancy Birdsall and Peter Hakim, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, suggest seven ways that the U.S. could more effectively support Latin American efforts to address persistent inequality--starting with a more effective approach on trade and drugs.

Peter Hakim
June 27, 2007

The Chinese Aid System

Chinese foreign aid is rising fast and Western aid agencies are concerned: will Chinese aid undermine efforts to promote reform in Africa and elsewhere? Will Chinese loans burden poor countries with fresh debt? In this new essay, CGD visiting fellow Carol Lancaster provides a concise and accessible overview of what is known--and not known--about the Chinese aid system. She advises aid agencies in Europe, North America and Japan to increase communication and to seek opportunities for collaboration with Beijing.

Carol Lancaster
June 25, 2007

The Provision of Banking Services in Latin America: Obstacles and Recommendations - Working Paper 124

Access to financial services -- ranging from credit to the use of electronic means of payment -- is crucial for growth and poverty reduction. This new working paper by CGD senior fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez tells why access to financial services is low in Latin America and suggests innovative solutions. Among the recommendations: public-private partnerships to improve financial literacy; training specialized juries to adjudicate financial disputes in ways that protect the rights of borrowers and creditors; and regulatory changes to speed the spread of technology offering financial services to low-income families and small firms.

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June 25, 2007

Greater Than the Sum Of Its Parts? Assessing "Whole of Government" Approaches to Fragile States (Brief)

Fragile states--countries defined by poverty, weak governance and often violent conflict--represent a major development challenge for today's global aid community and a significant threat to global security. This CGD Brief offers recommendations for how donors can best engage weak countries, including by experimenting with pooled funding arrangements, developing unified national strategies and by evaluating the impact of their interventions.

Stewart Patrick and Kaysie Brown
Cover of Greater Than the Sum Of Its Parts? Assessing "Whole of Government" Approaches to Fragile States
June 15, 2007

Greater Than the Sum Of Its Parts? Assessing "Whole of Government" Approaches to Fragile States

Experience shows that outside efforts to help reform or reconstruct fragile states must simultaneously address issues of security, governance, and economic growth. Greater than the Sum of Its Parts? looks at how seven governments—the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Germany, France, and Sweden—are seeking to integrate their approach to fragile states. The authors find that "whole of government" approaches remain a work in progress and provide recommendations for how donors can best engage weak countries, including by experimenting with pooled funding arrangements, developing unified national strategies and by evaluating the impact of their interventions.

Stewart Patrick and Kaysie Brown
June 13, 2007

Foreign Assistance Reforms: Successes, Failures, and Next Steps - Testimony for the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on International Development, Foreign Assistance, Economic Affairs, and International Environmental Protection

On Tuesday, June 12, 2007, Steve Radelet testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on International Development, Foreign Assistance, Economic Affairs, and International Environmental Protection on "Foreign Aid Reform: Successes, Failures, and Next Steps."

June 11, 2007

It's One World Out There: The Global Consensus on Selecting the World Bank's Next President - Working Paper 123

CGD's online survey of views on selecting the World Bank's next president received nearly 700 responses from people representing 71 nations; all world regions; high-, middle- and low-income countries; a variety of professional affiliations; and all adult age groups. In a new working paper analyzing evidence from the survey, CGD senior fellow David Wheeler finds that despite the participants' diversity, they displayed striking uniformity in their preference for an open, competitive selection process, their weighting of selection criteria, and their assessment of potential candidates for president of the World Bank--including the U.S. nominee, Robert Zoellick. Learn more

June 11, 2007

The World Bank's Work in the Poorest Countries: Five Recommendations for a New IDA

This CGD working group report offers five practical recommendations for strengthening the International Development Association (IDA)--the World Bank's soft-loan facility for the world's poorest countries--as donors begin replenishment talks that will shape IDA's course from mid-2008 through mid-2011. Among the recommendations: affirm IDA's central role in the international aid system; focus on core tasks; don't hold IDA hostage to broader geopolitical issues; get serious about finding ways to help fragile states; and sharpen incentives for performance.Learn more

The IDA-15 Working Group
June 4, 2007

Generating Political Priority for Public Health Causes in Developing Countries: Implications From a Study on Maternal Mortality

Why do some serious health issues--such as HIV/AIDS--get considerable attention and others--such as malaria and collapsing health systems--very little? In this CGD brief, visiting fellow Jeremy Shiffman discusses nine factors that influenced the degree to which national leaders in five countries made maternal mortality--death from pregnancy-related complications--a political priority. Drawing on his comparison of these countries, Shiffman offers recommendations for public health priority-setting in developing countries. His bottom line: attaining public health goals is as much a political as it is a medical or technical challenge; success requires not only appropriate technical interventions but also effective political strategies.Learn more

May 29, 2007

A Risky Business: Saving Money and Improving Global Health Through Better Demand Forecasts

This report of CGD's Global Health Forecasting Working Group, which was convened in early 2006 by senior fellow and director of programs Ruth Levine to sort out why demand forecasting has been so problematic, provides an elegant analysis of the problem and a sensible agenda for action. Their report offers specific recommendations that apply across a range of products and that could be implemented by identifiable public and private organizations.

The Global Health Forecasting Working Group
May 22, 2007

The World Bank: Toward a Global Club

In this Essay, CGD president Nancy Birdsall describes the World Bank as a global club with a structure close to that of a credit union in which the members are nations. Its mission, as originally conceived–-to promote broadly shared and sustainable global prosperity--serves the common interests of all its country members. In light of this idea of the Bank as a global credit club, Birdsall addresses the issues that arise with respect to its current governance structure and how these issues affect the Bank's legitimacy, effectiveness and relevance in the global system.

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