Azevedo, Groser, Pangestu Favored for WTO DG Slot As Pool Shrinks (Inside US Trade)
Senior Fellow Kimberley Ann Elliott is quoted in Inside US Trade on the necessary qualifications for the next head of the WTO.
World Trade Organization officials yesterday (April 11) were slated to confidentially inform four candidates among the nine running to become the next head of the WTO that they do not have enough support to continue their campaign. But while Geneva sources said there are a clear set of frontrunners that are likely to emerge from this first elimination round, it is more difficult to say how member delegations will make their selection from the narrowed-down pool.
Those viewed to be the strongest candidates for the next WTO director-general are Roberto Azevedo of Brazil, Tim Groser of New Zealand, and Mari Pangestu of Indonesia. A total of five candidates will move on to the next round, and at press time, sources expected Herminio Blanco of Mexico and Anabel Gonzalez of Costa Rica to also move on.
There are rumors in Geneva that the BRICs countries -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- are all supporting Azevedo, although this could not be verified. One informed source said there had been no coordination among those delegations on this matter, but speculated that Azevedo would receive support from these countries.
Once the weaker candidates are eliminated in this first round, much of the decision-making is likely to be political. Especially among the frontrunners, Geneva sources generally said that it is difficult to differentiate between their respective visions for the organization or determine who is really best equipped to address what ails the WTO.
One reason is that, because the WTO is a member-driven organization and the director-general is expected to serve a facilitating role, candidates have been cautious not to be overly proscriptive -- at least not publicly -- about how to bridge the existing divisions among WTO members. This means that many members are weighing other factors, like the economic policies of the countries from which they come and their perceived leadership skills.
For instance, countries who support free trade may be more drawn to Gonzalez or Groser, whose countries generally support trade liberalization. Countries more cautious on the issue of trade liberalization may be more attracted to Azevedo or Pangestu, as Brazil and Indonesia in recent years have both implemented policies that have limited opportunities for foreign firms in an effort to boost their own economies, sources said.
But another factor is whether candidates have the perceived ability to spur forward progress among the entire membership. For instance, one Washington-based observer argued that even if the U.S. were wary of Brazil's industrial policies, it may be wise to support Azevedo because he has "credibility" among the entire WTO membership, including developing country members.
This means he may be more effective in getting things done, this observer said.
Kim Elliot, a trade policy expert at the Center for Global Development, noted this week that simply knowing how Geneva works is not enough to be an effective leader. Instead, the next director-general needs to have the trust of the entire membership, and have the political skills to broker tough deals, especially as the major division in the WTO right now relates to the extent to which major emerging countries like China should benefit from special flexibilities.
In private meetings with the candidates, delegations have tried to dig deeper into how they would respond in certain scenarios in order to get a sense of their leadership capabilities, sources said.
Another important factor that delegations are weighing relates to the upcoming ministerial meeting in December. As the WTO is generally acknowledged to be in somewhat of a crisis, delegations are eager to ensure that the next director-general, who will take up duties in September, can successfully pull together this ministerial meeting so that it not only delivers the most possible in terms of outcomes, but also sets a positive agenda for the WTO moving forward.