August 01, 2014
Remittances are set to exceed the half-trillion-dollar mark in the near future, according to a projection from the World Bank. The increase has been dramatic; in 1990 such flows amounted to $49 billion (in 2011 dollar terms). Why has such a rapid growth in remittances not led to any discernible growth in GDP? A recent paper by Michael Clemens of the Centre for Global Development and David McKenzie of the World Bank provides three possible answers.
First, they write, the growth in remittances may actually be an illusion because of measurement error.
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Second, statistical methods may not be powerful enough to detect a potential effect on economic growth.
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Third, irrespective of measurement errors and insufficient statistical methods, the effect on growth may in fact be fairly small.