CGD in the News

Trump strong-arm tactics on NAFTA preview of trade talks to come (Agence France Presse)

October 22, 2018

By Heather Scott 

From the article: 

US trading partners should take note of one key element of the new trade deal with Mexico and Canada: regardless of the details, President Donald Trump can credibly claim his strong-arm tactics worked.

Many analysts say the United States did not gain that much in the new North American Free Trade Agreement, now known as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which was due to be revised anyway. But the threats of retaliation against close allies brought results. 

...

The new playbook

Trump made unacceptable demands "and then added all these threats," which gained credibility when Trump actually followed through with tariffs on steel and aluminum earlier this year, Leblond told AFP.

That "is going to be the playbook," Syracuse University trade economist Mary Lovely warned.

And while that is disturbing to negotiators used to playing by rules of traditional negotiations, the United States may find it hard to exert the same pressure on other countries.

"How far the bullying goes still depends on how desperate the other party is for access to the US market," said Kimberly Ann Elliott, a trade expert at the Center for Global Development.

"Canada and Mexico were clearly very dependent and had to have a deal," she said. 

Read the full article here.