Country Selection

The MCA process to select eligible countries:

• Identify candidate countries:  The MCA defines a pool of candidate countries based primarily on their annual per capita income level.  FY2013 marks the eighth year that the MCA can select eligible countries from two distinct groups: a low income country group (the 75 poorest countries based on World Bank per capita income data) and a lower middle income country group (per capita income below $4,035 and not in the poorest 75 countries).
• Apply selection criteria:  The MCA uses twenty indicators in three categories—ruling justly, economic freedom, and investing in people—to measure the candidate countries' policy performance and compare them against each other. Countries must score above a passing threshold on half of the indicators, as well pass the control of corruption indicator and either the political rights or civil liberties indicator, to be eligible for the MCA.
• Board discretion:  The MCA board of directors reserves the right to exercise discretion in the selection process, considering gaps, lags or weaknesses in data; if a country performs substantially below the median on any indicator; and additional qualitative information.

Countries that do not qualify for the MCA but are judged by the MCC board to be making progress in the indicators may be selected for the Threshold Program.

 What's New on Country Selection:

The FY2012 selection process saw large changes to the selection system.  The MCC added three new indicators—freedom of information, access to credit, and gender in the economy—and changed the selection rules. Now countries must pass half of all the indicators and one in each category.  A country must also pass the control of corruption indicator and either the political rights or civil liberties indicator. For complete information on the MCC's revised selection system, see its Guide to the Indicators and the Selection Process, FY2012.

As in years past, the FY2011 selection process did not include any changes to the data underlying the indicators.  However, the MCC is currently undertaking a review of the entire MCC selection process ahead of FY2010 selection.

Like last year, the FY2010 selection process did not include any changes to the data underlying the indicators.

The FY2009 selection process does not incorporate any changes into the indicators for round six of the MCA.

In the FY2008 selection process there were changes incorporated for the indicators.  It was the first round to incorporate two new measurements adopted on November 12, 2007, by the Board of Directors—a Natural Resource Management index in the investing in people category and a Land Rights and Access index in the economic freedom category.  Two previous indicators, Cost of Starting a Business and Days to Start a Business, were also combined into one Business Start-Up indicator for round five of the MCA.

 CGD Work on MCA Country Selection

• Round Eight of the MCA: Which Countries Will the MCC Board Likely Select as Eligible in FY2011 by Casey Dunning, Owen McCarthy, and Sarah Jane Staats (12/06/2010)
• Which Countries Pass the FY2011 Corruption Indicator? A Preview into Round 8 of the Millennium Challenge Corporation's Country Selection by Casey Dunning and Sarah Jane Staats (11/03/2010)
• From Challenge to Opportunity: A Proposal to Adjust the MCC's Candidacy Selection Method by Sarah Jane Staats, Casey Dunning, and Paolo Abarcar (04/15/2010)
• Round Seven of the MCA: Which Countries are Most Likely to Be Selected for FY2010? by Casey Dunning and Sheila Herrling (11/25/2009)
• Which Countries Jump the FY2010 Corrpution Hurdle? A Preview into Round 7 of the Millennium Challenge Account Country Selection by Casey Dunning and Sheila Herrling (09/21/2009)
• Round Six of the MCA: Which Countries Are Most Likely to Be Selected for FY2009?, by Steve Radelet and Amy Crone (11/24/2008)
• Round Five of the MCA: Which Countries are Most Likely to be Selected for FY2008?, by Sheila Herrling and Steve Radelet (11/26/2007)
• Investing in People by Investing in Data: How Best to Incorporate the New MCA Eligibility Indicators, by Sarah Rose, Sheila Herrling and Steve Radelet (8/27/2007)
• Expand and Enhance: A Proposal to Strengthen the MCA Eligibility Process When Adding the Natural Resources Indicators, by Steve Radelet, Sheila Herrling and Sarah Rose (1/24/2007) Companion spreadsheet (xls)(403kb)
• Adding Natural Resource Indicators: An Opportunity to Strengthen the MCA Eligibility Process, by Steve Radelet, Sarah Rose, and Sheila Herrling, updated version (11/7/2006)
• Round Four of the MCA: Which Countries are Most Likely to be Selected for FY 2007?, by Sheila Herrling, Steve Radelet, and Sarah Rose (10/30/2006)
• Will Politics Encroach in the MCA FY2007 Selection Round? The Cases of Jordan and Indonesia, by Sheila Herrling, Steve Radelet, and Sarah Rose (10/30/2006)
• Round Three of the MCA: Which Countries Are Most Likely to Qualify in FY 2006? (PDF) Revised 10/27/05 Data* used in this paper (Excel file, 612 KB)
  
  *The data is also available directly from the MCC’s website.
• The New Global Governance Indicators and the Possible Impact on MCA Qualification by Steve Radelet, Bilal Siddiqi, and Mvemba Dizolele (May 17, 2005)
• 2004 MCA Threshold Program: A Comment on Country Selection by Steve Radelet, Sarah Lucas and Rikhil Bhavnani (October 27, 2004)
• Round Two of the MCA: Which Countries are Most Likely to Qualify by Steve Radelet and Rikhil Bhavnani (October 12, 2004)
• Review the CGD's compilation of data for the 2005 selection process
• A note on the MCC selection process for 2005 by Steve Radelet (September 23, 2004)
• An MCA Scorecard: Who Qualified, Who Did Not, and the MCC Board's Use of Discretion by Sarah Lucas and Steve Radelet (May 28, 2004)
• Review the CGD's compilation of data for the 2004 selection process
• Qualifying for the MCA: An Update by Steve Radelet (April 22, 2004)
• A Comment on the Millennium Challenge Account Selection Process by Steve Radelet, Sarah Lucas, and Rikhil Bhavnani (March 9, 2004)
• The Millennium Challenge Account: Transforming US Foreign Assistance Policy? by Steve Radelet (2004)
• Bush and Foreign Aid by Steve Radelet (Reprinted by permission of FOREIGN AFFAIRS, © 2003 by the Council on Foreign Relations.)
• Challenging Foreign Aid: A Policymaker's Guide to the Millennium Challenge Account by Steven Radelet (May 2003)
• The Millennium Challenge Account: Soft Power or Collateral Damage? by Steven Radelet and Sheila Herrling ( April 1, 2003)
• Will the Millennium Challenge Account Be Different? by Steve Radelet (The Washington Quarterly, Spring 2003)
• Qualifying for the Millennium Challenge Account by Steve Radelet (December 13, 2002)
• Selecting For Success and Reaching the Poorest: MCA Eligibility Criteria Can Do Both by Nancy Birdsall (October 28, 2002)
• On Eligibility Criteria for the Millennium Challenge Account by Nancy Birdsall, Ruth Levine, Sarah Lucas and Sonal Shah (September 12, 2002)