Who Will the MCC Pick in FY2012?

In one week, the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) board of directors will meet to decide which countries will be eligible for FY2012 assistance, and the MCA Monitor has two new reports to feed into this process.The first report, Which Countries Will the MCC Board Likely Select as Eligible in FY2012?, takes an in-depth look at the MCC’s ninth round of eligibility selection.  Owen McCarthy and I make predictions on potential compact- and threshold-eligible countries and analyze indicator results for current compact countries.  At play this year is a new indicators test, a revised threshold program, and a host of potential second-compact countries.  The analysis breaks down the MCC’s new selection system and offers comparisons on how countries fare under both the new and old systems.  The table below highlights which countries pass under the different scenarios.The second analysis is a recent Report from the Field: Honduras which examines Honduras’s compact results more than a year after its official closeout.  Honduras was the first country to successfully complete an MCC compact and was able to do so despite three government transitions during the five years of compact implementation. Results from the compact’s rural development and transportation projects were particularly impressive in their scope and sustainability potential.  How was Honduras’s compact able to meet almost all of its project targets and enact difficult policy reforms to sustain them? Four lessons stand out in my analysis:

1. Sustainability measures were included in compact processes and projects.
2. There was a deep understanding and buy-in of the MCC model at all levels.
3. Honduras’s MCA accountable entity kept the focus on compact results through multiple government transitions.
4. The compact leveraged additional financing to achieve greater results.

The MCA Monitor will host an upcoming roundtable on December 13 to review these reports and the MCC FY2012 selection process.  RSVP here to be a part of the discussion.