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WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
Blog Post
April 23, 2024
The ongoing global demographic transition is massive in scale and likely impact. For most of the past 200 years, the vast majority of the world’s countries have seen population growth, particularly working-age population growth. As they’ve gone through the "demographic transition" toward lower birth...
Blog Post
December 16, 2022
In 2020, we opened our end-of-year review by saying that “Not even Dr. Pangloss could put a positive spin on… a historic dumpster fire of a year.” The next year, we described 2021 as “not quite the best of times, not quite the worst of times”, which seemed like progress. But if we take one lesson fr...
Blog Post
November 04, 2022
The UK currently has a shortage of nearly 47,000 nurses in the NHS; a Global Skill Partnership could help solve NHS staff shortages. The UK will gain much-needed skilled nurses at a cheaper cost than if they had been trained in the US, while the sending country benefits from nurse training that cove...
Blog Post
September 27, 2021
Changing organizational culture to embrace evidence and its use in decision-making is a long, hard slog. Over the last decade, USAID has made progress in that journey and—in many ways—has outperformed many federal agencies on fulfilling certain evidence requirements. But room for improvement remains...