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“Know this: Ceaseless social distancing is not the only way to end this outbreak. And President Trump paints a false choice between saving lives and saving the economy. We can find a balance. It’s just that the current orders of social distancing would need to be replaced by a comprehensive, extremely ambitious plan.
Epidemiologists have been telling me about what it would take to end social distancing safely while fighting the spread of Covid-19. It isn’t easy. It will require an immense amount of leadership, coordination, and more sacrifice. It would take a sort of moon-shot-level effort. But the tactics they outline aren’t unfamiliar. They’re textbook epidemiology — they just need to be scaled up to a level never really seen before.
‘We really do need a Manhattan Project effort to get this stuff in place in really a two-or three-month period,’ Jeremy Konyndyk, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, says.
We need social distancing across the country, and we need to keep it in place for some weeks, if not months, to buy time. If social distancing works, is enacted broadly, and is kept up, the number of new infections could decrease. It would give us a pause in the action, to potentially move on from social distancing to a more targeted pandemic strategy. Right now is the time to get plans ready, so when that pause comes, we can make things right…”
From the article:
“…W-GDP launched in February 2019 with the goal of reaching 50 million women by 2025 through three pillars of work: improving access to vocational training and helping women secure jobs; supporting women entrepreneurs through access to capital and networks; and removing legal, regulatory, and cultural barriers to women’s economic participation.
‘I’ve been excited to see an emphasis on a whole-of-government approach, which is unprecedented for these issues,’ Megan O’Donnell, assistant director of the gender program at the Center for Global Development, told Devex.
The administration of President Donald Trump has put forward a strategy, defined clear goals that it wants to achieve, and set reporting requirements — all elements that are essential to the success of an initiative, said Lyric Thompson, senior director of policy and advocacy at the International Center for Research on Women.
But she lamented that the White House has, at the same time, consistently tried to cut the overall foreign assistance budget. ‘If they want to do more work, it should be in addition to gender and development globally,’ she said.
W-GDP reached 12 million women in its first year, according to the administration…”
Center for Global Development
Webinar on Monday, March 30, to Review Guide and Actions
WASHINGTON, DC —Successful suppression of COVID-19 in the United States will require urgent and decisive action by state, local, and community leaders across the country. To support effective decision-making, top global health security leaders have released a COVID-19 Frontline Guide. Developed in response to calls from local governments for more information on how to protect their communities, the online tool features eight indicators of progress for self-assessment and seven key actions that each include checklists of decision points.
The guide provides a framework to help local leaders establish effective strategies to fight the outbreak, both by reducing transmission of the disease and by supporting their communities effectively.
The website and guide will be discussed with the authors at an online webinar on Monday, March 30 at 12:30 pm ET. Register here for details on participating.
The contents of the COVID-19 Frontline Guide are grounded in existing guidance from U.S. and global authorities, public health research findings, and lessons observed from countries that have been battling COVID-19 since January 2020. It is intended to complement, but not supplant, guidance from global, federal, and local public health and other authorities.
The guide, available at www.COVID-Local.org, is being developed through an iterative process and will be further refined and developed as local leaders share their feedback and experience.
The Frontline Guide is a joint project of the Global Biological Policy Program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), the Center for Global Development, and the Georgetown University Center for Global Health Science and Security, in collaboration with Talus Analytics.
“Even in prepared cities like Seattle, health systems are struggling to test patients and keep pace with growing caseloads. The specter of rapid community transmission and exponential growth is real and daunting,” said NTI Vice President Dr. Beth Cameron.
The COVID-19 Frontline Guide highlights seven key actions, representing the proven points of action required by leaders and compiled by experts across the emergency response, health care, public health and health security fields. Each action includes a checklist of decision points:
Activate an Emergency Operations Center (EOC) and establish a whole-of-community incident management structure
Understand the real-time spread of COVID-19 in the community
Slow and reduce transmission
Focus protection on high-risk groups
Reinforce and expand health system surge capacity to sustain healthcare operations and avoid high mortality
Expand risk communication and community engagement
Mitigate economic and social consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic
Visit www.COVID-Local.org to explore the Frontline Guide for local decision-makers, download the site content, view situation updates on the COVID-19 response capacities, and more.
NTI is a nonprofit, nonpartisan global security organization focused on reducing nuclear and biological threats imperiling humanity. Learn more at www.nti.org or @NTI_WMD on Twitter.
About the Center for Global Development
The Center for Global Development is an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that works to reduce global poverty and improve lives through innovative economic research that drives better policy and practice by the world's top decision makers. Learn more at www.cgdev.org or @CGDev on Twitter.
About the Georgetown University Center for Global Health Science and Security
The Center for Global Health Science and Security (GHSS) at Georgetown University is an academic research center that develops evidence for action, providing decision makers with the tools they need for sustainable capacity building to prevent, detect and respond to public health emergencies. Learn more at ghss.georgetown.edu or at @Georgetown_GHSS on Twitter.
Cathy Gwin (NTI), 202-270-5942, firstname.lastname@example.org
Sean Bartlett (CGD) 202-821-2947, email@example.com
Karen Teber (Georgetown), 215-514-9751, firstname.lastname@example.org
From the article:
“…While the Trump administration has issued guidelines urging Americans to stay home, the most severe restrictions nationwide have come from governors, who have ordered nonessential businesses to close in at least 24 states and have imposed restrictions on those businesses in a dozen more. Nineteen states plan to or already require residents to stay home. Federal guidelines don’t trump state restrictions.
The result could be an even further decentralized patchwork of guidelines across the nation, which public-health experts say will make it harder to combat the virus’s spread. The U.S., because of its decentralized structure of government and health care systems, has faced greater hurdles than some Asian countries in implementing rigorous measures to test and quarantine citizens.
‘A patchwork approach is functionally a least-common-denominator approach, which is a huge problem,’ said Jeremy Konyndyk, who led the U.S. government’s response to international disasters under the Obama administration. ‘In the absence of uniform standards and robust surveillance, we are vulnerable to governors taking risks in their states that end up endangering other states as well…’”
From the article:
“…The constant threat of disease, as much as any other factor, kept the reins on human development and expansion. At the dawn of the 19th Century, global life expectancy was just 29 years – not because human beings couldn’t live to much older ages even then, but because so many of us died in infancy from disease, or from infection during childbirth or after a wound.
The cities of the pre-modern era were only able to keep up their populations through a continual infusion of migrants to make up for citizens who died off from disease. The development first of sanitation, and then of countermeasures like vaccines and antibiotics, changed all that.
‘The defeat of infection overcame these barriers and allowed us to have these great global cities,’ says Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, a think tank in Washington DC, and the author of the forthcoming book Winning the War on Death: Humanity, Infection and the Fight for the Modern World.
It was a victory that won us the modern world as we know it…”
From the article:
“…The Ebola outbreak also showed that people need to hear information from trusted sources, particularly in more remote areas, said Gyude Moore, who was deputy chief of staff for the President of Liberia at the time.
People died of Ebola because they did not heed the government’s advice not to touch dead bodies, he said.
‘The president appearing on radio or television is going to reach a limited number of people,’ said Moore, a visiting fellow at the Center for Global Development think tank.
Countries have learned from that and now widely go through religious or traditional leaders to spread health messages, or have volunteers going door-to-door, he said…”
From the article:
“…With more countries adopting the measure, the question becomes not if they are effective, but how to make them effective. But data is sparse on best practices in implementing them.
‘No one is doing this very well at this stage,’ said Amanda Glassman, executive vice president and senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.
Dr. Kalipso Chalkidou, director of global health policy and also a senior fellow at CGD, said what’s happening globally today serves as a natural experiment.
‘Being able to record exactly what’s happening to the extent we can trust the data and then observe and draw conclusions and dynamically adjust the response, is the key to all of these,’ she said. ’It’s not easy right now to understand exactly what is working best, and we don’t have the single, one recipe for a successful response.’
A major issue with the quarantine in Luzon is the work stoppage and loss of public transportation. Daily wage earners and informal workers won’t have income sources for a month. Without public transportation, some essential workers, such as hospital staff, janitors, and food vendors, are forced to walk as the directive only allows the use of private vehicles.
On the first day of implementation of the enhanced community quarantine, reports of health workers and even patients walking for hours to reach the hospital filled the news…”
In this interview with El Comercio in Peru, Liliana Rojas Suarez discusses the economic impact of COVID-19 on Peru and the broader Latin American context. Looking at Peru's ability to withstand this economic "shock", Rojas Suarez outlines that Peru is better prepared than other emerging economies, but that institutional weaknesses, populaiton density, informality, and weaknesses in the health system will make this a challenge. Rojas Suarez highlights that much of Peru's eocnomy is informal, with many not able to access formal banking - a problem that will not be able to be solved on short notice. As the COVID-19 outbreak worsens, Rojas Suarez urges that the best way to overcome severe economic shocks would be to limit the spread of the virus.
"Lo que el coronavirus COVID-19 implicará para nuestro país no solo en el ámbito de salud, sino también económico viene siendo analizado desde diversos frentes. Pero el impacto negativo es inevitable. Desde Washington (EE.UU.) conversamos con la economista peruana Liliana Rojas-Suárez, directora para Latinoamérica del Centro para el Desarrollo Global, y hacemos un balance sobre lo que nuestro país puede esperar....
"Liliana Rojas Suarez: Cuanto más grande el contagio, mayor el costo financiero y fiscal. La primera medida es minimizar el contagio que tiene tres elementos: detección de la enfermedad, contención y tratamiento. Aquí es donde el Perú necesita ayuda. Ya no se trata de recursos solamente fiscales y monetarios, necesita todo el apoyo que pueda conseguir de los organismos internacionales en este momento; es hora de tocar puertas ya. Y seguramente lo debe estar haciendo el Gobierno, eso no lo sé."