Ideas to Action:

Independent research for global prosperity


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October 1, 2016

Glimpsing the End of Economic History? Unconditional Convergence and the Missing Middle Income Trap - Working Paper 438

This paper suggests a reinterpretation of global growth—encompassing notions of unconditional convergence and the middle income trap—in the past 50 years through the lens of growth theory. The last 20-30 years have been a golden era of convergence, challenging the new conventional wisdom of secular stagnation.

Sutirtha Roy , Martin Kessler and Arvind Subramanian
June 10, 2015

Manufacturing or Services? An Indian Illustration of a Development Dilemma - Working Paper 409

Manufacturing has historically offered the fastest path out of poverty, but there is mounting evidence that this path may be all but closed to developing countries today. Some have suggested that services might provide a new path forward, while others have expressed skepticism about this claim and consequent pessimism over the future growth trajectories of developing countries. We contribute to debate this by using a multi-sector growth framework to establish five important criteria that any sector must exhibit in order to lead an economy to rapid, sustained, and inclusive development. 

Amrit Amirapu and Arvind Subramanian
May 30, 2014

Understanding Economic Development Reading List - Arvind Subramanian

Senior fellow Arvind Subramanian has just finished teaching a course at the School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University on long run economic development. Not the recent trend toward micro-development that focuses on questions such as “will giving away free bed-nets help malaria prevention?” But macro-development that focuses on questions of why some nations that got left behind after the industrial revolution remain poor while some others have caught up (or on their way to doing so). 

December 10, 2011

A China Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations - Working Paper 277

Until recently, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been an effective framework for cooperation because it has continually adapted to changing economic realities. The current Doha Agenda is an aberration because it does not reflect one of the biggest shifts in the international economic and trading system: the rise of China.

Aaditya Mattoo and Arvind Subramanian
December 18, 2009

Aid, Dutch Disease, and Manufacturing Growth - Working Paper 196

Decades of research have been unable to conclusively show either a positive or negative effect of aid on economic growth in poor countries. CGD senior fellow Arvind Subramanian and Raghuram G. Rajan use a new technique in their latest working paper that suggests aid slows the manufacturing sector by appreciating the exchange rate and making the production of manufacturing goods less profitable. And if aid slows the manufacturing sector, the implications for overall growth could be adverse.

Read the Working Paper

Raghuram G. Rajan and Arvind Subramanian
November 16, 2009

Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates - Working Paper 191

In this working paper, the authors shed light on systemic problems of variability and valuation in the Penn World Table GDP estimates that distort cross-country comparisons of the data. They propose creating a new chained series that values all data at PPP prices and makes better use of disaggregated data for different benchmark years to overcome the limitations.

Arvind Subramanian and et al.