Center for Global Development and The Paul H. Nitze
School of Advanced International Studies
present
Massachusetts Avenue Development Seminar (MADS)*
Featuring
Jed Friedman
Development Research Group, World Bank
and
Norbert Schady
Development Research Group, World Bank
with discussant
Christopher McKelvey
Department of Economics, University of Maryland
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
12:00 noon–1:30 p.m.
(Lunch will be served)
at
Center for Global Development
1800 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Third Floor, Washington, DC
Abstract: If income is protective of health, then deviations from anticipated national income may have important ramifications for population health, including child survival. We utilize Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) micro-data from 59 low- and middle-income countries to investigate the co-variation of trend-deviations in per capita GDP and infant mortality. Through the use of time-series and non-parametric regression techniques we identify the effect of macro-economic contractions on IMR and find a strong, significant, and statistically robust relationship between fluctuations in GDP per capita and IMR. These findings persist even after controlling for changes in the annual composition of birth mothers and for various country-level characteristics. We further explore how the severity of the contractions mediate the impact on child survival and find that the most harmful impacts occur for very large and negative deviations from expected national income. We conclude with a discussion of the substantial cross-country heterogeneity in this relationship and implications for protective policies.
Printed copies of the paper will be available at the seminar.
AS SEATING IS LIMITED, PLEASE RSVP BY JANUARY 19TH TO EVENTS@CGDEV.ORG
*The Massachusetts Avenue Development Seminar (MADS) series is an effort by the Center for Global Development and The Paul H Nitze School of Advanced International Studies to take advantage of the incredible concentration of great international development scholars in the Metro Washington, DC area. The series seeks to bring together members of this community and improve communication between them.
