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Blog Post
March 06, 2023
I'm not a huge fan of arbitrary lines through country income levels to create income thresholds. That is because there is no obvious clustering of countries within the global (country-level) income distribution, and moving from one income status to another does not correlate with trend breaks or end...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
In a new paper, Zack Gehan and I present scenarios for the global economy in 2050. These scenarios build on a forecast of economic growth built around income, population, education, and temperature. The process suggests a considerable degree of uncertainty about how the world will look in three de...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
The Sustainable Development Goals commit the world to ending extreme poverty by 2030. More cautiously, the World Bank’s twin goals suggest it can help reduce extreme poverty to 3 percent by 2030. Neither goal can be accomplished unless the extreme poverty line is (finally) fixed rather than constant...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
Forecasts of the future shape of the global economy, if they are at least somewhat accurate, can help planning and policy discussions in areas from global governance through business expansion plans. At the same time, this relies on forecasts in fact being somewhat accurate, and it’s a cliché that p...
Blog Post
March 03, 2023
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a deep global recession as the virus rapidly spread and governments restricted movements. The economic shock was compounded by widespread uncertainty among businesses and concerns about the risks of increasing financial sector distress limiting access to credit.
WORKING PAPERS
March 03, 2023
This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the reallocation of economic activity across firms, and whether this reallocation depends on the competition environment. The paper uses the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys COVID-19 Follow-up Surveys for about 8,000 firms, including both small...
Blog Post
January 13, 2023
The new year has hardly begun, but fears of a looming recession persist. Pandemic-era increases in health spending are unlikely to continue in low- and middle-income countries. Growing fiscal pressures—such as high debt, increasing interest rates, and declining foreign aid and revenues—bode ominous...
CGD NOTES
November 29, 2022
The importance of semiconductors to the functioning of so many activities was brought home when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted production and trade. The shortage of semiconductors forced a cutback in the output of vehicles, consumer durables, and electronic equipment of all kinds, inflicting heavy ...
POLICY PAPERS
November 28, 2022
The experience of the COVID-19 pandemic—in the US and around the world—highlights the potential feasibility and importance of biomedical R&D for global health and welfare. Drawing from this experience and momentum, this paper argues that the US should deepen its engagement and ambition in global hea...
Blog Post
November 28, 2022
Building on the success of Operation Warp Speed, the US should deepen its engagement and ambition in global health R&D to drive transformative improvements in global health outcomes and security. Specifically, it should consider a subscription model for new antimicrobials; an advance market commitme...