Ideas to action: independent research for global prosperity
What’s the Latest Research in Development Economics? A Roundup from NEUDC 2023
November 09, 2023
There are so many studies regarding so many aspects of development economics that it can be difficult to keep up. Last week was the North East Universities Development Consortium annual conference, often called NEUDC. Researchers presented more than 130 papers across a wide range of topics, from agr...
A Resilience Indicator: Can We Identify Which Countries Would Be Most Affected by Global Economic Shocks?
October 05, 2023
A year ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that an alarming 60 percent of developing countries and 25 percent of emerging market economies were either in debt distress or at severe risk of default. The confluence of severe shocks in the period 2020-22, starting with the COVID-19 pan...
Identifying Macroeconomic Resilience to External Shocks in Emerging and Developing Countries: Lessons from the Global Shocks of 2020-2022
October 05, 2023
This paper uses a straightforward Resilience Indicator, constructed from a small set of economic and institutional variables, to show that by 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent global shocks, it was possible to identify emerging markets and developing countries that would encounter ...
Loan Recoveries and the Financing of Zombie Firms over the Business Cycle
September 22, 2023
Using new data from the European Banking Authority on loan recovery outcomes, we examine how variation in loan recovery efficiency affects the transmission of financial sector and overall economic weakness to firm-level financial and real outcomes. We find that firms linked to under-capitalized bank...
Urgent: The IMF Must Reform
June 07, 2023
The Committee identifies three critical developments in the global economy with profound implications that require urgent changes at the IMF. This statement advances broad proposals to address these issues by creating an Emerging Markets Fund (EMF); modifying the G20 Common Framework to effectively ...
Accelerating Asia-Pacific: Unleashing the Power of Innovation and Inclusion
May 22, 2023
The tide is turning: the economic recovery in the Asia-Pacific region is picking up steam. Last week’s forecasts from the IMF suggest that economic growth in the region’s developing and emerging countries will rise from 4.4 percent in 2022 to 5.3 and 5.1 percent in the current and following year. Th...
Do Higher Concentration and Markups Reflect a Rise in Market Power or Higher Productivity?
April 17, 2023
To what extent are the high returns on capital of "star firms" due to unmeasured differences in intangible invested capital? Once these differences are corrected, how do star firms differ in their output and investment strategies from other firms? Our evidence points not to exploitation of market po...
Regulatory Arbitrage and Loan Location Decisions by Multinational Banks
April 11, 2023
This paper examines the impact of international differences in capital regulation on multinational banks’ loan origination location decisions. We find that greater borrower transparency to a local bank establishment makes loan location at this establishment more likely, and that regulatory arbitrage...
Do Multinational Banks Engage in Regulatory Arbitrage through Their Loan Location Decisions?
April 11, 2023
Regulatory arbitrage—the practice whereby banks try to escape jurisdictions with more stringent regulations in favor of less stringent ones—has been a topic of active research interest. Previous research has shown that banks do indeed direct financial flows to countries with less strict regulations,...
The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank: A Warning for Emerging Markets
March 16, 2023
The the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, bank regulators and supervisors in emerging markets should be looking closely at their own banking systems with lessons from Silicon Valley in mind. For most emerging markets, where previous banking crises were devastating and turned back the clock o...