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WORKING PAPERS
March 06, 2023
We develop scenarios for the shape of the global economy in 2050 building on a simple regression of the historic relationship between current income and lagged income, demographic features, climate, and education, using the coefficients to develop a “central” forecast and error terms to set high and...
Blog Post
November 21, 2022
The Open Contracting movement, pushing to make government procurement worldwide considerably more transparent and efficient, has been a huge success. Today, more than 50 countries and cities are implementing policy changes from open electronic bid processes and publishing contracts to posting inspec...
Blog Post
September 23, 2022
Once you’ve looked at policy as a source of societal progress and regress, especially over the long term, it is hard to look at anything else. As a result, I hope ever-more people in the EA community in town this week decide to work in government, or work on making government work better.
Blog Post
August 25, 2022
The existing MCC income cutoff is based on the robust principle that the best buys in global development are concentrated in the world’s poorest countries. (Indeed, when the Corporation started, it only worked in low-income countries for that reason). There is a declining marginal utility of a dolla...
Blog Post
July 05, 2022
For all that investment is far from all we need, we will still need a massive amount of it if we are to meet global targets on sustainable development. Low and zero-carbon power plants; expanded electricity, water and sanitation networks; universal health and education systems—none come cheap. Estim...
CGD NOTES
July 05, 2022
Global gatherings from Addis Ababa to Glasgow are setting targets from climate through health and education to energy and transport that call for a lot of investment for sustainable development. But how much you can afford to invest depends on how much you’re paying for it. And that’s where the simp...
Blog Post
July 05, 2022
DFC has been the subject of a growing list of proposals from lawmakers that envision the agency tackling a wider range of challenges than initially envisioned. The agency may find ways to leverage this heightened interest. However, delivering on the bipartisan, foundational vision for DFC amid evolv...
Blog Post
May 24, 2022
It’s Davos week, so I just checked… and I qualify for writing a global “we are the 99 percent” blog! Indeed, my household is actually all the way toward the bottom end of the 99th income percentile worldwide (the lower cutoff is around $200,000 for a family of four). So, what do I think the 1 percen...
Blog Post
March 18, 2022
The “billions to trillions” vision advanced the notion that some significant part of official development assistance (ODA) should be used to catalyze additional finance from other public and private sources. Seven years later, the expectations that blended finance would expand sharply to help narrow...