The Christian Science Monitor quotes CGD senior fellow Kim Elliott on trade sanctions.
From the article:
"Sometimes. A survey of 204 episodes of economic sanctions since World War I found that about 1 in 3 succeeded in changing the behavior of the targeted regime or changing the regime itself, says Kimberly Elliott, whose study turned into a Peterson Institute book. In the 1970s and 1980s, though, US unilateral sanctions worked in only about 1 in 5 cases. The US finds it easier to employ economic pressure with Iran than Israel.
Israel is a close ally whom America wants to cajole. Iran is accused of funding terrorists and aiming to develop nuclear weapons. Yet, the US already has severely cut back trade with Iran. To be effective, the Obama administration would need to persuade Iran’s other major trading partners to do the same.
It might have leverage with Germany, Iran’s No. 2 export market. But the United Arab Emirates (No.1) and China (No. 3) could be hard to sway. Economic sanctions usually need the cooperation of several nations to work. Furthermore, sanctions must be designed so the costs of compliance are less than the costs of defiance, says Ms. Elliott, now a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington."