October 15, 2013
When the world’s leaders convene in Washington for the World Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings this week, they will be greeted by a muddled outlook for the largest economies. The US is bouncing back but blighted by polarised politics that could yet extract a heavy economic toll. Europe is recovering at a tepid pace from depressed levels. In Japan, Abenomics is a work in progress.
But leaders will have greater clarity about emerging markets: the party is over. Gloom about these countries’ growth prospects is based in large part on the deterioration in the very favourable external economic environment they have enjoyed in the past decade: high commodity prices and cheap capital. But medium-term emerging markets growth is misunderstood.