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CGD in the News

We tried to predict what would happen in 2019. Here’s what we got right and wrong. (Vox)

January 7, 2020

"...Neither India nor China will enter a recession (70 percent) — CORRECT

As I mentioned when laying out this prediction the first time, neither China nor India ever fell into recession in 2008-2010; indeed, it’s hard to identify the last time either of them was in recession, as it appears never to have happened in the 21st century.

And economic weakness in 2019 was not enough to drive either into full recession, just as the 2008 financial crisis was not enough. Both Chinese and Indian growth slowed, but not to negative territory.

It’s important to note that Indian growth is likely lower than its official numbers state; the Center for Global Development’s Justin Sandefur and Julian Duggan point out that a lot of correlated stats, like non-oil imports and exports and capital/infrastructure production, are declining. But even if growth is overstated, the latest year-on-year growth figures were 5 percent and 6 percent for India and China, respectively. They would have to be really dramatically off for either country to have been in recession in 2019. If an error that size is confirmed, I’ll happily correct this..."

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Senior Fellow