"The ability to improve the forecasting of demand for medicines that are needed urgently is a critical key to building a strong and responsive health system. This Working Group has shown that we could make tremendous progress by taking specific steps, with our international partners. Now that the main analyses are complete, it is imperative that we move toward implementing the recommendations so that we will see sustained health benefits from new resources and new technologies." (Dr. Hetherwick Ntaba, former Minister of Health, Malawi)
"There is an urgent need for development of new treatments for developing-world diseases. Lack of new drugs have often been attributed to issues related to intellectual property and lack of financial incentives, however, the biggest disincentive to developing new drugs is the failure of making existing drugs matter. While there are many "bottlenecks" that help explain the limited use of existing drugs in resource poor settings, none are bigger than those related to improving the capacity to develop credible forecasts. This complex area has received little attention and is poorly understood by most. If implemented, the recommendations made in the new report of the Global Health Forecasting Working Group of the Center for Global Development, will go a long way to improve access to existing medicines and will lower the barriers to the development and delivery of new therapies." (Dr. Gail Cassell, Vice President for Scientific Affairs & Distinguished Lilly Research Scholar for Infectious Diseases, Eli Lilly and Company)
"This report addresses the critical challenge of all donor agencies engaged in global health -- how to improve our ability to forecast demand for essential medicines and diagnostics, with an aim of creating greater access to them in the poorest countries. We at USAID welcome this new and insightful analysis as a means to further healthy and fruitful dialogue about how to work together more effectively with all stakeholders and partners." (Dr. Kent Hill, Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Global Health, USAID)
"Scientific progress is critical to developing new technologies, but so, too, is the policy framework that facilitates science. Accurate, robust and dynamic demand forecasting is a key element of this framework that can help drive policy making, funding and research and development. The Center for Global Development and its Global Health Forecasting Working Group have done an outstanding job of conducting a thorough analysis of the present situation, identifying shortcomings and, perhaps most importantly, developing practical solutions -- solutions that can lead to accelerated product development, improved supply-chain management and more cost-effective donor aid. Technologies can only improve public health if they are available when and where they are needed, and CGD has again led the way in demonstrating just how policy analysis can help to save lives." (Mitchell Warren, Executive Director, AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition)
"Finally, this call for global action to address the bottlenecks in the supply chain of essential health products comes as a welcome relief to all stakeholders. The increased investments in global aid in developing countries has unfortunately not provided universal and sustainable access to required essential health products to control the major public health problems of AIDS, TB and malaria. This has been dramatically demonstrated by the escalation of drug resistance such as the recent emergence of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) spawned by shortages of drugs. The recommended road map towards improving the demand forecasts essential to an efficient supply chain details the roles of all stakeholders in a true spirit of partnership which is urgently needed to maximize aid effectiveness and enhance the impact of Global Fund and others. The stakes are much too high for the world to ignore. The time to act is now." (Dr. Thelma Tupasi, President, Tropical Disease Foundation, Philippines)
"Practical as a good recipe book, with the intensity and determination of a rallying cry and the thoroughness of a wining battle plan, this book's suggestions seem so doable that many readers will be tempted to join the fight. After reading this book, one has the feeling that, by following its advice, the simple yet elusive goal of coordinating our efforts to attack disease in developing countries is within reach." (Dr. Santiago Kraiselburd, Executive Director, Zaragoza Logistics Center)
"Getting life-saving medicines to those who need them requires far more than money. Improving demand forecasting is an essential and urgent task as we strengthen the supply chain, and the broader health system. This report, which takes a fresh look at the problem of demand forecasting, shows clearly how actions at the international level could genuinely facilitate improvements at the country level. I look forward to seeing the recommendations taken forward." (Dr. Simon Mphuka, Executive Director, Churches Health Association of Zambia)
"The road to providing access to new vaccines, drugs and diagnostics to all who need them is a rocky one. Now, new sources of funding are paving the way as are advances in understanding of molecular immunology and mechanisms of disease. However, the need to improve demand forecasting remains a clear stumbling block. This book beautifully clears the path for credible forecasts, a means for sharing them and thus a reduction in risk for those of us who are struggling to bring the new technologies to the developing world." (Dr. Una Ryan, President & CEO, AVANT Immunotherapeutics, Inc.)
"Accurate demand forecasts are the foundation of successful immunization efforts in poor countries: improvements in the current system will allow us to realize the full potential of the many new products that will soon be available. The Center for Global Development report drives home the true significance of this critical function, and puts forth clear, practical solutions for how donors can come together with developing countries and private industry to effectively increase access to vaccines and other health technologies." (Alice Albright, Chief Financial & Investment Officer, GAVI)
"Ensuring an effective and responsive supply chain is essential to achieving widespread access to life saving medicines across the developing world. The authors bring unique multi-disciplinary experience and research to formulate practical solutions to this serious problem- a real demonstration of Scholarship in Action." (Dr. Yossi Sheffi, Director, MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics)
"The efforts of the Global Health Forecasting Working Group should be applauded for showing how better forecasting together with an understanding of market-related risks can impact patient morbidity and mortality and promote better health for everyone living in the developing world." (Silvio Gabriel, Executive Vice President, Malaria Initiatives, Novartis Pharma AG)
"I hope all supply chain academics and practitioners take the problems described in this book seriously; it is our opportunity to make a real difference to one of the most important supply chain problems in the world today. This book has done an excellent job of documenting problems from the world of public health and showing how these problems can draw upon our vast experience managing similar problems in myriad supply chains. Appropriately, the book takes a close look at contracting arrangements and risk-sharing arrangements and demonstrates some "low-hanging fruit" too. I hope this project continues to gather momentum and draw support appropriately; our children need this project!" (Dr. Ananth Raman, UPS Foundation Professor of Business Logistics, Harvard Business School)
"Improved supply chains and demand forecasting is essential to ensure that life saving drugs reach patients in need. The new Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) provide a unique opportunity to tackle unacceptable burden of malaria. In order to manage risks and opportunities, manufacturers, procurement agencies and donors need clarity in the medium term needs for these drugs. This report provides a significant contribution to understanding and mitigating the risks related to demand forecasting." (Dr. Christopher Hentschel, President and CEO of Medicines for Malaria Venture)