CGD in the News

Predicting the Next Crisis (The Economist)

March 30, 2015

From the article:

How resilient are emerging-market economies? Many are struggling, thanks to the economic impact of a strong dollar. But what would happen if things suddenly got a lot tougher? A new paper, from Liliana Rojas-Suarez of the Centre for Global Development, a think-tank, offers some interesting data.

Let’s imagine that something really bad happens. The Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy too soon; some new global debt crisis begins; Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ms Rojas-Suarez wants to understand which emerging-market economies are most vulnerable.

To do so she creates a “resilience indicator”. The ingredients of the index are listed at the bottom of the piece. In short, the indicator measures how indebted a given country is; how reliant it is on foreign funding; and how much scope it has to fight the markets if things go wrong.

Read the article here