Long-term economic and political implications of the tsunami disaster in Indonesia and Sri Lanka - NPR Morning Edition Interview with Steve Radelet

STEVE INSKEEP, host: As we've heard in recent days, the tsunami killed many professionals and community leaders. That's the kind of news that makes Steven Radelet warn of long-term social problems. Radelet is a former resident of Indonesia and now a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development here in Washington. Mr. STEVEN RADELET (Center for Global Development): The police forces are largely wiped out, and where the hospitals remain standing, doctors and nurses are dead or missing. Teachers are gone, local government officials are gone, community leaders, church leaders have been killed. And so many institutions that hold social fabric together have been significantly weakened or destroyed. And I think rebuilding those will have enormous implications. The last major natural disaster in this area were the tsunamis that followed the explosion of the Krakatau volcano in 1883. And they killed 40,000 people, wiped out many villages in West Java. But they also led to a quite violent Muslim insurrection, rebellion against the Dutch Colonial rule at the time that had major implications on the political governance in that region for many decades to follow.

INSKEEP: When you say that the Krakatau eruption led to, among other effects, insurrections and you look at the armed movements that you already have in Indonesia or in Sri Lanka, that doesn't sound very comforting.

Mr. RADELET: Well, I think that it creates an opportunity for both the rebel groups in Sumatra and in Sri Lanka and for the international community to come in after the crisis. Much will depend on how they respond. The international community has the opportunity to provide some hope for people going forward. If they miss that opportunity, I'm quite sure that the rebel groups, both in Sumatra and in Sri Lanka, will try to further their cause and to further resentment against the current leadership so that they can encourage greater rebellion.

INSKEEP: In Sri Lanka there have already been reports of rebels working with government forces to deliver assistance.

Mr. RADELET: The question is how long that will last. In Sri Lanka, I think there's a great opportunity for that because for the last two years, there has been peace negotiations that have gone quite far. And this could provide the opportunity for those to go even further. In Sumatra, however, things have not been going very well for the last couple of years. There's a new government now in Jakarta, but I think there's much greater risk that, two or three months down the road, that we will return to the rebellion, that this could lead to greater dissatisfaction by local people if the response is not what it should be which could make the situation in Aceh much worse.

INSKEEP: And we should mention that the Islamist movement in Indonesia is of great interest to the United States government because of its potential connections to what's described as the global war on terror.

Mr. RADELET: It should be. Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world. It has been the target for terrorist bombings both in Bali and outside the Australian Embassy in Jakarta last year. It has been mentioned by al-Qaeda leadership as a target of opportunity where they'd like to establish a foothold. And it is potentially a place where the broader international conflict could come home to roost.

INSKEEP: What is the significance of the fact that in this region where there is an Islamist movement, the United States military is there delivering aid?

Mr. RADELET: Yeah, and they are trying to work in cooperation with the Indonesian military. And this provides an opportunity for greater cooperation between the two, but they will need to cooperate with the Indonesian military.

INSKEEP: Do you think the appearance of American troops in that part of the world could change some people's minds about the United States

Mr. RADELET: I think it could if they are seen to come in and help people re-establish their lives, help give people new opportunity and new hope that doesn't exist right now. If instead we come in and are a bit strong-armed and tell people what to do and then leave before the job is completed, then people could have a negative impression of the.

INSKEEP: We've been talking to Steven Radelet. He's a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, and he was deputy assistant secretary of the Treasury in the Clinton and Bush administrations.

Thanks very much.

Mr. RADELET: Thank you very much.

INSKEEP: This is MORNING EDITION from NPR News.

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